Posted on 07/31/2015 7:09:33 PM PDT by BenLurkin
Gold has been mauled this week as the commodity sank to a four-year low. But it may get a lot worse, according to economist Claude Erb, who said that his gold price forecast could see bullion tumble to $350 an ounce.
Erb deserves to have his opinion taken seriously, as he was among the only analysts predicting a long-term bear market for gold back in 2012. Rather than sit smugly by as gold lost $500.00 in value since his prediction, Erb has gone on the offensive this week and said it could get much, much worse.
He bases this prediction on two arguments.
The first is that gold is really worth about $825.00 per ounce, based on a formula he developed in a joint-publication in 2012 with Cambell Harvey, a Duke University finance professor.
The second is his prediction that when gold prices do begin to market-correct, downward momentum will plunge its value far lower; possibly as low as $350.00.
The possibility of a slingshot down past its real value is supported by historical data, because it happened in the mid-1970s and late 1990s. The difference is that with depressed oil markets, the Chinese stock crisis, and slumping growth in Europe, the stakes are higher than ever.
(Excerpt) Read more at profitconfidential.com ...
There is definitely something wrong with the ozero economy. Gold tanking, silver tanking, oil tanking, jobs already tanked, etc... jimmy carter presidency squared!
Never too old to appreciate it.
Too bad.
There will be people 'off the reservation' whether anyone likes it or not.
This is why I ignore most conspiracy theories.... They ignore the obvious.
And make a lot of noise...
/johnny
And worth its weight in gold.
bfl
As the price of gold declines it becomes harder to buy and the premium does go up hereabouts.The two local purveyors of gold no longer sell it to walkins. Everything they can possible get is presold. Local doctors and professionals deposit money with them and take them more when their accounts get low. If China is not tapped out very soon $350 gold will simply transfer all the world’s gold held by large companies and by governments to China.
Gold locally is unavailable to people who have not paid way up front.
Don’t forget that the market price of gold is for paper gold. One of the contrarian indicators on this analyst’s theory will be easily seen in how inventories of physical gold bullion products (like 1 oz. coins) hold up as the price drops. I am betting that physical gold will dry up as the price drops and that below a certain price manipulation will be very difficult without producing other visible effects.
see:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/contango_backwardation.asp
That’s my take.
If it gets to 350 its time to back up the trucks.
Yes, there are those that will stand up to the coming system. Christians, who will be persecuted and killed, and others, who don't believe in Christ, but will be persecuted and killed anyway because they will have the power.
The world is about to fundamentally change. I am not certain how, but I am reasonably sure it will happen soon. The US may be hit with multiple God induced disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, etc). Or, we may have a total loss of our power grid, or war.
In any case, the veneer of civilization is very thin.
I hope you are a Christian. If not, you will suffer as most will.
Pain is not optional.
Suffering is.
I chose not to suffer, even if I get the pain.
I don't know that non-Christians will get things worse. That sounds like speculation.
/johnny
As far as the rest, it does not matter. Your money. The size of your house or condo. Your apartment.b your job title. Your health plan. Your 401k. All of that is transient. What matters is where we are with Jesus Christ,
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