Posted on 07/15/2015 1:57:22 PM PDT by Swordmaker
Wow. That was quite a spectacle. It was as if someone dropped raw meat into a piranha tank.
The raw meat was a report by a company called Slice Intelligence, claiming that Apple Watch sales were off a whopping 90% from launch week. The piranha were a few hundred news services and blogs who’d apparently been starved for weeks.
Sometimes I wonder if people understand how organizations like Slice work. They make money by selling their services to client companies, and they attract new business by sending out press releases that become “news.” The more shocking the story, the more PR they get — and, in theory, the more new clients they can reel in.
In this case, Slice got exactly what it hoped for. Its name was attached to one of the biggest stories of the week. But, in the absence of any numbers from Apple, just how believable is the story?
Slice’s data comes from a group of 2.5 million people who’ve granted permission to have the their inboxes scanned for email sales receipts.
Honestly, at a time when privacy is such a hot issue, I have trouble imagining what kind of person would agree to have their inbox monitored in this way. But I digress.
The biggest flaw in Slice’s research is that it is limited to US consumers only. Rumor has it there might be a few people outside the US interested in an Apple Watch.
Mostly though, I have trouble reconciling Slice’s conclusions with common sense.
Given that only iPhone owners can use an Apple Watch, Slice doesn’t reveal how many of the 2.5 million are iPhone owners, or how they recruit people in general. And if a large number of this finite group bought a Watch during launch week, it stands to reason that there would be far fewer qualified buyers three months later.
So, Slice’s 90% drop-off could be perfectly accurate — and perfectly meaningless.
Granted, strange things happen in this world. But, given that Apple appears to have sold more watches in a week than others have sold in two years, my little brain strains to imagine how sales could literally dry up overnight.
Indeed, it’s the fantastic nature of Slice’s conclusion that made it a siren call for sites that are out for Apple blood, and for quite a few mainstream news sites as well.
Though I’m used to this stuff, I was struck by the proliferation of these stories. It was enough to draw me into a late night Google-fest.
By far the most popular word used in the headlines was plummet, with plunge coming in a close second. Quite a few sites ran identical headlines, and then there were a few variations thereof:
Not content merely to report on the report, many sites were compelled to add opinion and hyperbole to their headlines:
Others added the hyperbole, but then ducked responsibility by attributing to Slice:
Over the weekend, an article offered up three reasons why the AAPL stock price was down this week. Reason #2: “Apple Watch Flop.” Guess what evidence was used to support that claim.
And … et tu, Fast Company? Their July 10th article is headlined “Why the Apple Watch is flopping.” Not “might be” or “could.” Just “is.” And of course, they offer two facts to back that up: Apple’s decision not to break out Watch sales (which was announced prior to the launch), and — wait for it — “a new report from third-party analysts Slice Intelligence.” The rest is a compilation of the negative opinions we’ve already read.
Last, bless Engadget’s little heart. Hoping it isn’t too late to hitch a ride on the runaway freight train, they just reprinted the Fast Company story today.
You know, it’s easy to report a press release as fact. Real journalism requires some effort. Happily, a small number of sites chose not to reflexively publish a headline that seemed too bad to be true. They actually looked at the source, analyzing its merits and faults. Signs of intelligence were detected at The Motley Fool, Forbes and even Fox News.
Since there are no qualifications required to publish on the Internet, a Slice-like press release can actually serve a higher purpose.
The coverage it generates can help us distinguish between those who can offer meaningful insight — and those who will publish anything for a click.
I am selling my Apple shares soon and buying more Netflix stock. Apple has to do more then tweak their iPhone in the future.
Apple went three to five years between major product introductions under Steve Jobs. Steve jobs died on October 5, 2011. In the less than four years since Steve Jobs passed:
That looks like nine innovations since Steve Jobs died, some minor, some major and quite important. . . some extremely valuable to Apple's product mix and bottom line. Three very important new product lines that count toward that. . . in less than four years.
So, PJBankard, I can indeed say that Apple has been innovative since Steve Jobs died—it is self-evident. . . you just haven't been paying attention or you've been listening to the FUD being spread by those trying to force the value of the stock down.
Two things:
It’s not an iWatch, it’s an Apple Watch.
I’m assuming you haven’t made a great deal of money from Apple stock so don’t follow THE REALITIES of Apple developments very closely.
“I reiterate that Apple flounders without Jobs....”
****************************************************************************************************
There are likely thousands of CEOs and CFOs who, in their dreams, wish that their enterprises were “floundering” 1/10 as “bad” as Apple. New and successful products such as Apple Pay, the Apple Watch and (hopefully) beginning later this year Apple TV will provide massive rivers of cash flow and profit to Apple and its stockholders for many years.
Of course instead of investing in Apple Stock some folks may have been investing in Greek and Puerto Rico bonds. Different strokes for different folks, I guess.
I looked at the new Mac Pro, and I don’t like it, it looks like a trash can.
If they’re wrong, what are the real numbers?
I sold Apple today at 128 even.
I wish I had done so earlier as the Netflix stock I want to buy more of has gone up from $98 to 113 today.
This after the 7-1 stock split tuesday and higher earnings report on wednesday.
I have to wait the 3 days for the sale to settle before I can use the money to buy more stock. I wish I could trade right away.
Before I sold I checked what Apple rumors were for new products. iPhone 6 that that comes in pink color will be available in September.... The decision was made to sell.
From an earlier post to another Freeper who asked a similar question:
The Motley Fool estimated that Apple Watch sold 5.5 million units through June 26th—the day that Apple started selling the Watch direct through the Apple Stores—at an average selling price of $505 each, actually using Slice Intelligence figures, after factoring world wide sales. That works out to revenues of $2,777,500,000, with a profit margin of 42% that's a profit of $1,166,550,000. Hardly a flop.
You traded of a stock that’s paying dividends and has a p/e of ~14 for a stock that doesn’t pay dividends and has a p/e of 210. Good luck with that. . .
Oh, and analysts have AAPL with strong buy with targets ranging from 135 to 194 while you’re going to buy Netflix where analysts are targeting $98.
Netflix, Inc.
NASDAQ: NFLX - Jul 16 6:28 PM EDT
115.81Price increase17.68 (18.02%)
After-hours: 116.90 Price increase1.09 (0.94%)
Apple Inc.
NASDAQ: AAPL - Jul 16 6:28 PM EDT
128.51 Price increase1.69 (1.33%)
Apple’s dividend payout is now $2.08 per share per year.
I did not own a million shares so $2 bucks per share is very little compared the amount Netflix is returning in stock price profits.
I will take Netflix now over Apple. If and when Apple comes out with a new product and not just a tweak then the stock will go higher. I think the stock will meander for a while while Netflix will go up and up.
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