Posted on 07/15/2015 1:57:22 PM PDT by Swordmaker
Wow. That was quite a spectacle. It was as if someone dropped raw meat into a piranha tank.
The raw meat was a report by a company called Slice Intelligence, claiming that Apple Watch sales were off a whopping 90% from launch week. The piranha were a few hundred news services and blogs who’d apparently been starved for weeks.
Sometimes I wonder if people understand how organizations like Slice work. They make money by selling their services to client companies, and they attract new business by sending out press releases that become “news.” The more shocking the story, the more PR they get — and, in theory, the more new clients they can reel in.
In this case, Slice got exactly what it hoped for. Its name was attached to one of the biggest stories of the week. But, in the absence of any numbers from Apple, just how believable is the story?
Slice’s data comes from a group of 2.5 million people who’ve granted permission to have the their inboxes scanned for email sales receipts.
Honestly, at a time when privacy is such a hot issue, I have trouble imagining what kind of person would agree to have their inbox monitored in this way. But I digress.
The biggest flaw in Slice’s research is that it is limited to US consumers only. Rumor has it there might be a few people outside the US interested in an Apple Watch.
Mostly though, I have trouble reconciling Slice’s conclusions with common sense.
Given that only iPhone owners can use an Apple Watch, Slice doesn’t reveal how many of the 2.5 million are iPhone owners, or how they recruit people in general. And if a large number of this finite group bought a Watch during launch week, it stands to reason that there would be far fewer qualified buyers three months later.
So, Slice’s 90% drop-off could be perfectly accurate — and perfectly meaningless.
Granted, strange things happen in this world. But, given that Apple appears to have sold more watches in a week than others have sold in two years, my little brain strains to imagine how sales could literally dry up overnight.
Indeed, it’s the fantastic nature of Slice’s conclusion that made it a siren call for sites that are out for Apple blood, and for quite a few mainstream news sites as well.
Though I’m used to this stuff, I was struck by the proliferation of these stories. It was enough to draw me into a late night Google-fest.
By far the most popular word used in the headlines was plummet, with plunge coming in a close second. Quite a few sites ran identical headlines, and then there were a few variations thereof:
Not content merely to report on the report, many sites were compelled to add opinion and hyperbole to their headlines:
Others added the hyperbole, but then ducked responsibility by attributing to Slice:
Over the weekend, an article offered up three reasons why the AAPL stock price was down this week. Reason #2: “Apple Watch Flop.” Guess what evidence was used to support that claim.
And … et tu, Fast Company? Their July 10th article is headlined “Why the Apple Watch is flopping.” Not “might be” or “could.” Just “is.” And of course, they offer two facts to back that up: Apple’s decision not to break out Watch sales (which was announced prior to the launch), and — wait for it — “a new report from third-party analysts Slice Intelligence.” The rest is a compilation of the negative opinions we’ve already read.
Last, bless Engadget’s little heart. Hoping it isn’t too late to hitch a ride on the runaway freight train, they just reprinted the Fast Company story today.
You know, it’s easy to report a press release as fact. Real journalism requires some effort. Happily, a small number of sites chose not to reflexively publish a headline that seemed too bad to be true. They actually looked at the source, analyzing its merits and faults. Signs of intelligence were detected at The Motley Fool, Forbes and even Fox News.
Since there are no qualifications required to publish on the Internet, a Slice-like press release can actually serve a higher purpose.
The coverage it generates can help us distinguish between those who can offer meaningful insight — and those who will publish anything for a click.
The watch market was a $22 billion dollar market in 2014. The Apple Watch has already captured 10% of it in under two months.
The Apple Watch has already exceeded the sales of the iPhone in its first year and more amazing, the Apple Watch outsold the best selling consumer product introduction of all time, the iPad in 2010, which sold 3.1 million units in its first 90 days. The Apple Watch sold that many watches in the first three days! In fact, the record seems to show they sold that many in the first ten minutes of pre-sales.
No, it's not. The value of Apple has more than doubled since the death of Steve Jobs due to good business decisions.
The previous time, the management had nearly bankrupted the company by bad business decisions. It was on its way back when Steve jobs was brought back, but it was no where near the company it was when he was ousted.
This time, without Steve Jobs, the company has been on an upward growth almost continually and opening markets world wide. . . with it's products, except for the iPod, gaining both market and, most importantly, profit share. The iPad is due for a refresh this year and the Mac has the greatest market share it has enjoyed in 20 years. Sorry, your premise lacks all credible evidence.
Evasion indeed.
Lacks intellectual honesty as well in comparing Scully Amelio time frames in context of the company at that time vs status at Jobs’ death.
Avoids the main issue of Apple ascension and whether or not Apple is purely a stock to maintain profitability or a company that may fluctuate in profit, but will be transformative.
Not sure your gig.
I note your post mainly are against straw men and are defensive.
Wow....thank you so much for that info. That is incredible.
I entirely disagree with you on your context vis-a-vis "honesty". . . in what other way can you value a company except by its market value? Apple is the single most valuable publicly traded company in the world. The market has spoken on its value. In fact, most analysts conclude that based on its fundamentals, Apple's stock is vastly under valued. One major advisor just raised the outlook to 195. Its currently trading at ~126. If it reaches even half of that rise, Apple would be the first one trillion dollar company.
It is also the most profitable. . . not counting quasi-governmental companies that are government protected such as some national banks. Right now Apple rakes in 92% of all profits in the cellular phone market world wide. . . and that's no accident. That is the market place making millions of decisions of relative value.
Again, addressing straw men and avoiding the greater question.
YOU claim it is a straw man. I do not. What do you claim is the measure of success? The Apple Watch is now the best selling initial product release of all time, beating out the 2010 iPad.
YOU have made a claim that it is an indicator of Apple failing. . . yet even Slice Intelligence's statistics when looked at correctly show a large number of sales in less than two months and huge profits beating out the iPhone's original launch, the iPod's original launch, and the iPad's original launch.
Where do you see this as some kind of a failure on Apple's managements' part? I've used the financial and profit standards which are not in question, used by everyone else to judge the effectiveness of company management. . . and you claim they are straw men I've erected to shoot down. OK. Erect now it's your turn to erect YOUR straw man in evidence, not just claim it. Show your cards, to mix metaphors.
You post this:
There is no reliable information on Apple Watch sales. None of the analysts which follow Apple or the phone, computer or watch markets have any insight into this. The only source of information is Apple itself and they have made it clear that they don’t intend to provide watch sales data for competitive reasons.
And also this:
The Apple Watch has already exceeded the sales of the iPhone in its first year and more amazing, the Apple Watch outsold the best selling consumer product introduction of all time, the iPad in 2010, which sold 3.1 million units in its first 90 days. The Apple Watch sold that many watches in the first three days! In fact, the record seems to show they sold that many in the first ten minutes of pre-sales.
Kind of sounds like you will say anything.
“YOU have made a claim that it is an indicator of Apple failing. . .”
No I did not.
That is consistent with your straw men.
We know number rangers. . . not accurate numbers. We know they are above certain numbers. . . but not the numbers that Slice published. . . which were only guesstimates. Only Apple has the accurate numbers. We do know that the Apple Watch sold more than the iPad sold in its initial release, just not how many. These are not exclusive statements, ifinnegan. It looks to me as if you are grasping at straws to try and make my statements wrong. Good Luck with that.
This are the numbers that Slice claims, with their ridiculous, impossible precision, given their claim sampling system and methodology:
Assuming they're accurate, that's only 34% of the Apple Watches sold, according to Apple's own statement as the US's percentage of Apple Watches sold in the world.
The second set of figures quoted you attribute to me comes from sources such as Forbes and The Motley Fool an Fortune, well qualified analysts, which I have previously posted on FR. Sorry, they are, frankly, far more believable than Slice's conclusions because those analysts have successful track records and Slice does not.
I don’t dispute your numbers. (That you claim I do or did is another straw man on your part).
I am addressing your say-anything spam and style where in one post you say sales are not released by Apple and not available, and in another provide a rather detailed breakdown of sales.
Ah, remember the good old days when all you had to argue over was the Mac’s unbelievable (to windows users) reliability?
Yes, ifinnegan, you did. In post #4, you stated that Apple, without Jobs "flounders", you were quite explicit:
"3 more firms are floundering: struggle financially, be in dire straits, face financial ruin, be in difficulties, face bankruptcy/insolvency, founder.”
That’s "failing", ifinnegan. You claimed it. Now state your evidence that Apple without Steve Jobs is "floundering". Be specific.
I reiterate that Apple flounders without Jobs.
Flounder does not mean fail.
I see you have now resorted to word games and dug in even deeper with the straw men.
I did not and don’t state Apple is losing money or failing or that the iWatch is or will be unprofitable.
But those seem to be the only things you are programed to respond to in your spam.
I provided you with the definition. . . you can't use words as YOU choose them to mean. That IS what it means in reference to a business. Sorry. You chose the word. Live with it. I have challenged you to provide your reasoning and proof. You have not been forthcoming, ergo you have nothing except insults and accusations of "spam."
No one will know what iWatch sales have been until Apple's next quarterly announcement.
For all anyone knows at this point, this was a ruse set up so someone could short the stock and make money.
Everything's corrupt these days, so why not.
The data that Slice provided do not support their conclusions. . . and it's a strong possibility you are correct. Someone did indeed sell just before these claims were published and then bought in at the low point. The made a killing on the backs of the little guys who panicked. . . and it did span the period of the Chinese stock problem and well as the Grecian problem. Very suspicious seeing as how Slice Intelligence has never done such a thing before and has no track record to base any confidence in.
I have a bunch of Apple products as well; that said, I can't justify a watch purchase.
Who knows? I said the same thing about the iPhone years ago, and now that I have one I find it to be a useful tool.
I did not know this. Suspicious indeed.
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