OK, basically I’m trying to put together a call center to reach out to our clients. I know that there’s a 16% chance someone will connect with someone while making a phone call.
So I’m trying to calculate how many people we will reach if we make calls out to 1000 people, and we call each one up to six times. (stop calling those once we’ve made contact of course).
1- (.84) 1000 = answer
The 1000 is in superscript.
Ooooh! That's a very different problem! Now order matters, because a successful "hit" ends the stream of "rolls"!
1000 iterations of rolling up to 6 times, and stopping when you get a "five". Let me think on that one for a bit. Definitely tweaking the dustier parts of my brain for old college courses.
You are in so far over your own head it is not even funny.
I just sent you a PM. Call center calculations are NOT based on probability. They are best calculated using an erlang calculator that assumes talk time, work time, and contact time. You have to figure out those numbers, then figure out how you dial and the contact rate.
Using probability to staff call centers is a BIG mistake, as you will ALWAYS come up short, and under budget your expenses.
Read my PM and drop me a note with some specifics.
I used to run call centers that did both inbound and outbound contacts—about 13 million contacts a month. Projecting this stuff is an art—and you need to make sure you are going at it from the right direction.
16% chance independent of time of day? or is the 16% the average for the entire day?