CSIRO debuts bushfire prediction tool

iTnews.com.au ^ | May 5, 2015 11:50 AM (AUS) | Brendon Foye

[Utilizer]

Spark aimed at saving lives.

Australia's peak science and research organisation today released a homegrown software tool to help emergency services predict the severity and spread of destructive bushfires.

The CSIRO's Spark tool gathers geospatial data on topography, vegetation, humidity and wind patterns from Landsat satellites, and combines it with data provided by fire authorities to give an accurate prediction of fire behaviour.

The organisation expects Spark will not only help emergency services save lives, but also reduce the financial burden of bushfires.

Spark should also allow emergency services to better manage infrastructure planning, fire fighting resource allocation and deployment, evacuation routes, fuel reduction burning, and reconstruction of historical fires, the organisation said.

CSIRO computational modelling researcher Dr Mahesh Prakesh said the tool can relay data on fire behaviour within 15 seconds.

[Utilizer]

Of interest to anyone living near a fire-worrisome area, such as a rural environment.

[kinsman redeemer]

Fire behavior modeling is very complex. Not only are there geographic considerations (cover type, for example) but there are resource management , command, and coordination (manpower, aviation, equipment and apparatus...), reconnaissance, budget and funding, partnership, prior treatments, and a host of regulatory considerations to consider.

Just the geographic (spatial) factors alone are a labyrinth of elements including meteorological conditions, slope and aspect, vegetation type, structure and density, soil conditions, water availability.

I don’t know much about it - but I know it’s VERY complicated to predict what’ll happen.

[Utilizer]

Indeed, and that is why I started this thread about it. Modeling fire activity and behaviors has long been a difficult task but the software referenced in the article seems to be quite accurate in its output and so it bears looking into.

I live next to a National Forest at the moment and fires are a constant worry. Software such as this should be discussed and promoted if indeed it has progressed to the point where it can accurately map what a fire’s actions are likely to be.

If I need to evacuate some day because it turns out I am directly in the path of a fire, the more time I have to grab some essentials and expeditiously egress the better off I will be.

Software such as this would be incredibly valuable for this and likely save lives especially as the modeling algorithms are refined over time for more realistic scenarios.

[kinsman redeemer]

All you say is true and your concerns are valid.

You have many resources at your disposal. Search for a local “Community Wildfire Protection Plan” and learn about it. Contact Firewise and learn how to reduce your risks. There are many Wildland Urban Interface programs that help residents with advanced planning.

It isn’t likely that you could use the Fire Brhavior tool on your own but agencies (in your case the USFS) already use such tools (lots of them, in fact) and they might be able to show you scenarios that would present the highest risks to your property.

I suggest that you contact them and make an appointment to talk with someone. That’s what I’d do, by golly.

[Utilizer]

Noted, but I am afraid I lost all confidence in the current tools available to the national agencies when that group of professional firefighters was caught in the middle of a fire not too long ago and all of them burned to death.

I hope this new software is a game-changer, and I understand from the article that there is a ‘demo’ version available for download so that it can be evaluated, so hopefully it will turn out to be a very useful tool indeed.

[GladesGuru]

“Noted, but I am afraid I lost all confidence in the current tools available to the national agencies when that group of professional firefighters was caught in the middle of a fire not too long ago and all of them burned to death.”

IIRC, the Fire Boss refused to allow a water bucket/helicopter to scoop water from an available stream because the bucket might have scooped up an “endangered” fish.

Those people died because of the ESA and AgencyPerson cowardice. In no way were those deaths attributable to any “model”.

[Utilizer]

Do you have a reference for that? I do not recall reading anything like that in the past and it would be quite helpful if I could point people to yet another example of how certain governmental agencies exist solely to promote some liberal agenda and care little for the lives of the people their actions endanger and at times exterminate with no repercussions whatsoever.

[GladesGuru]

Here’s one, of many. I chose this because it is a site which has no professional or financial issues at risk - just the usual American perspective on display.

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/non_aviation/read.main/88180

There was even an Congressional investigation, IIRC. Nutin’ done in terms of man slaughter charges, however.

[Utilizer]

Thank you for that link and I am deeply sorry for the loss of the inexperienced firefighters that day. However, I was referring to the loss of that ‘Hotshot’ crew that made all the MSM outlets when those “experienced pros” (the Hotshot team) all died.

Not that it makes it any less important that those unfortunate rookies died, but they were not the crew I was referring to. Good to know that others are remembered as well.