Fire behavior modeling is very complex. Not only are there geographic considerations (cover type, for example) but there are resource management , command, and coordination (manpower, aviation, equipment and apparatus...), reconnaissance, budget and funding, partnership, prior treatments, and a host of regulatory considerations to consider.
Just the geographic (spatial) factors alone are a labyrinth of elements including meteorological conditions, slope and aspect, vegetation type, structure and density, soil conditions, water availability.
I don’t know much about it - but I know it’s VERY complicated to predict what’ll happen.