Apple Won’t Always Rule. Just Look at IBM.

The New York Times ^ | APRIL 25, 2015 | By JEFF SOMMER

[Swordmaker]

Apple can’t grow like this forever. No company can.

In a few short years, Apple has become the biggest company on the planet by market value — so big that it dwarfs every other one on the stock market. It dominates the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index as no other company has in 30 years.

Apple’s market capitalization — the value of all of the shares of its stock — is more than $758 billion, greater than any other company’s. Yet the Wall Street consensus is that Apple is still having a growth spurt. In fact, if Apple’s watches, phones, laptops and other gadgets and services keep generating favorable publicity — and if its quarterly earnings report on Monday is as strong as the market expects it to be — there’s a reasonable chance that Apple’s value will keep swelling. Not far down the road, it might even reach the $1 trillion level that some hedge funds predict.

But even if Apple still has some room to run, there are some early warning signs. After all, the company has already crossed a significant threshold. In February, it grew to twice the size of the next biggest company in the S.&P. 500, a rare feat of financial dominance, and one that hasn’t happened since Ronald Reagan was president.

[Swordmaker]

Meanwhile, Apple can sell its base iPhone 6 at $249 and make money, and has 89 percent of mobile phone profits, leaving 11 percent for everyone else to split.

Actually, Apple doesn't ever sell their phones at that price. The carriers pay Apple full bore retail for it. . . or rather the carrier's customers do. It is just paid for over time. The price is $649 but paid for over time. The same is true of the competitions' top tier smartphones when they are bought on contract.

[roadcat]

Yet the Wall Street consensus is that Apple is still having a growth spurt.

People are always announcing Apple will fail. Maybe not. Smart companies change and diversify their product line. Large companies start with one type of product line, let's say motors for factory conveyor belts, and over time may be producing breakfast cereal as well as building airplane components. IBM did not always build computers. Look at a company like Honda, building bicycles, then motorcycles, then cars and now their building robotics.

Someday Apple might be building space destroyers and Moon bases (their new campus building may just be the kernel of such an idea). People can predict their demise, but only time will tell us what happens next.

[amigatec]

This is so true, Frieghtliner Trucks used to make sewing machines. And Studebaker owned Gravely Mowers at one time.

[roadcat]

This is so true, Frieghtliner Trucks used to make sewing machines.

Sewing machines is something that Apple should try to make. Imagine your Apple Apparel Robot scanning your body, allowing you to choose from an array of designs or ones you design, then cutting and piecing together an outfit for you, ready to go in an hour. Maybe I should patent this idea and sell it to Apple.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks SM.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

I once tactfully pointed out a huge misapprehension to my boss at another company. He reacted with anger and doubled down on what he was doing which caused exactly the fiasco I had warned about. Rather than saying thanks or promoting me he sidelined me in a pigeonhole to suffer career death. Call that a lesson learned and the reason nobody tells the emperor he has no clothes.

A congressional investigation of the surprise at Pearl Harbor determined that “if you wanted to have a stagnant career as a military officer during the fantastic expansion of forces and of career promotions during WWII, it was only necessary to have correctly predicted Pearl Harbor.” (quote approximate from memory).

[roadcat]

Rather than saying thanks or promoting me he sidelined me in a pigeonhole to suffer career death.

At one time I had a boss like that. We were in charge of setting up infrastructure at several new sites around town, for IT departments in the early 1990s. Boss decided we would use CAT3 wiring to all cubicles, and only a couple connections for each. I protested and made the case for using CAT5 wiring, which was new at the time. Also for multiple connections for additional peripherals. Boss shouted me down and got his way. Keep in mind the floors of these buildings were bare and devoid of walls and carpets.

Once the offices were finished and personnel moved in, there were complaints everywhere of network failures at all sites. The CAT3 wiring couldn't handle the traffic. It all had to be removed and redone with CAT5 at great cost. Boss sidelined me to a minor role, and I left. He was congratulated for "fixing" the problems.

[BullDog108]

Thanks, ST, I will let y’all know what I think of it.

[Gefn]

No worries Sir. Glad you are here.

Getting ready for their quarter report today? It should be positive.