Apple Watch: An Overnight Multi-Billion Dollar Business

Carl Howe blog ^ | Posted on April 16, 2015 | By Carl Howe

[Swordmaker]

It was just three years in the making

Quick look

Here’s the quick summary for those of you who don’t have time to read the next 3,000 words.

The Apple Watch went on sale for pre-orders on April 10, 2015, and the Apple Store tells us that delivery dates for all orders now stretch into summer and beyond. We know that the initial production run of Apple Watch has sold out; what we don’t know is how many Apple Watches that represents. I’ve built a simple model that predicts that the initial run of watches was more than 3 million units and will yield Apple Watch revenues of over $2 billion for the first two weeks of sales. While this figure is smaller than first weekend sales of iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, it dwarfs all other smartwatch sales to date and represents a milestone in wearable sales. The model suggests that while Sport Watch will lead sales in volume, selling 1.8 million units through May 8, Apple Watch will actually lead in revenue during that period, garnering about $900 million versus Sport’s $675 million. I also believe that Apple’s decision to introduce the Edition will be validated by $500 million in sales on only 40,000 units.

[Some Fat Guy in L.A.]

Still haven’t seen an explanation of what the bloody thing is good for, other than it’s a homo status symbol.

[Star Traveler]

That’s what you get from that “south of the border culture”. Get two stinking drunk ILLEGAL ALIENS together and they’ll stab someone over Coca-Cola versus Pepsi ... LOL ...

[Star Traveler]

Be prepared to be very surprised! ... :-) ...

[867V309]

Still haven’t seen an explanation of what the bloody thing is good for, other than it’s a homo status symbol.

I it will tell you your BP is too high (because you're trying to run a block, moron) and then you can get an app for $5.95 (iItsNotMyFault).

[Swordmaker]

I will still be surprised if I cannot buy one of these for $25 on eBay or Craigslist in mid July.

Somehow I sincerely doubt you will be able to find them at all for anywhere near that price. This one is retail for $399 yet is being sold for at least $490 at this moment and has 27 bidders to bid it up even farther. . . with mid to late May delivery.

[ctdonath2]

Same was said of iPhone and iPad. Didn’t take long for people to turn those unknown platforms into a lifestyle and business necessity.

[ctdonath2]

And there he is, right on cue.

[ctdonath2]

Plenty of explanation of what it’s good for has been posted.

If you’re serious instead of trolling, start here: https://www.apple.com/watch/app-store-apps/

[867V309]

And there he is, right on cue.

Yo!

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

I can’t imagine a use for these things. I couldn’t see the use for tablets either, and I still don’t. They’re too unwieldy, blending the worst qualities of smartphones and laptops. For couch-surfing, I prefer a smartphone or phablet.

I could see a use for Google glass, since it has a heads-up display. No need to look down at your phone or watch.

A voice or gesture-activated heads-up display seems like the next real breakthrough.

I’m guessing that the pre-orders are driven by early-adopters and fashionistas. We’ll see if it has any staying power.

[Swordmaker]

WOW! You are going to try to slip this by the Admin Moderators AGAIN???? You are stupid and trying to tweak their patience aren’t you? What is this the Fourth or FIFTH time you have gotten this piece of filth pulled by the Admin Moderators? Do you really think they won’t get tired of your obscene posts on a family friendly forum?

[867V309]

WOW! You are going to try to slip this by the Admin Moderators AGAIN???? You are stupid and trying to tweak their patience aren’t you? What is this the Fourth or FIFTH time you have gotten this piece of filth pulled by the Admin Moderators? Do you really think they won’t get tired of your obscene posts on a family friendly forum?

I don't know what the aforementioned filth was, don't care. But It's hard to imagine filth worse than Timmy Cook's queer filth.

[DakotaGator]

Dick Tracy.

[DakotaGator]

Indeed. It was a 2-way Wrist Radio. Later it became a 2-way Wrist TV. I remember reading the funnies when the latter was introduced.

[Swordmaker]

Ignoring the fact that the Apple Watch is not any kind of a "homo status symbol" as you so snarkilly imply, here are your answers:

1. Quickly answer the iPhone without having to dig the iPhone out of your pocket, purse, or briefcase before the call goes to visible voice mail.
2. Quickly Initiate a telephone call by voice by telling Siri to call by name or phone number without having to dig the iPhone out of your pocket, purse, or briefcase.
3. Quickly see a text, MMS, or alert at a glance to see if you need to take any action to handle the information without digging your iPhone out of your pocket, purse, or briefcase.
4. Respond to a received quick glance text or MMS with a quick select choice from a set of prepared options directly from the Apple Watch.
5. Respond to a received quick glance text or MMS with a more complex dictated reply using Siri.
6. Send a text to any individual in your address book or phone number by dictating it to Siri.
7. Using Siri, ask for directions to any destination and have Siri provide turn-by-turn directions either by driving, bicycling, or walking.
8. Ask Siri for directions to the nearest gas station or restaurant.
9. Ask Siri any question, without using your iPhone directly, some can be answered by Siri by voice, some on the screen of the Watch, some you may have to get out the iPhone to read fully. Your choice.
10. Set and check appointments from your calendars using Siri.
11. Make appointments and reservations using Siri.
12. Monitor your walking, running, bicycling, resting, with or without the presence of your iPhone.
13. Monitor your heart rate while exercising, with or without the presence of your iPhone.
14. For patients under medical care, send heart rate and pattern to your cardiologisit or clinic instantly or on a schedule.
15. Use ApplePay without digging out your iPhone from your pocket, purse, or briefcase at several hundred thousand retail stores and restaurants.
16. Instantly open digitally locked doors without taking any action at all.
17. Plays a limited selection of your iTunes music while you are jogging, or walking, bicycling without carrying your iPhone with you.
18. Remote control for your Apple TV.

    Then there are those added by Ctdonath2:
    
    More Watch apps:

19. “Geofence” tickets, like having your ticket code appear on the Watch as you approach the airline loading gate (or other e-ticket-requiring location), able to scan or proximity your boarding pass while your hands are full of luggage.
    
20. Games. C’mon, you know this will be big once something as addictive as Angry Birds is invented for the new platform.
    
21. There are medical applications coming that will blow your mind.
    - Adaptive watch faces and context-dependent apps: depending on where you are, how fast you’re moving, and what your calendar notes, different expressions of time are more useful; nice to have those appear as appropriate. Nighttime, at home, not moving? you don’t need seconds or exact minutes, but good time to track your movement (I’ve nearly a year logged on my sleep app). Driving to work in the morning? show countdown & ETA. Lunch? time left. Party? crazy watch face. At fine dining? elegant style. To complicated? pick a random time display style. All without having to decide & set the face motif. Maybe you get the idea.
    
22. Accurate & automatic time zones & DST. Traveling? kinda sucks when you don’t know quite where the time zone line is. DST? less I have to deal with it the better. Both cases, your time setting is accurate within milliseconds and feet.

And that's without going into the thousands of apps that will be available to Apple Watch users on April 24th, when the Apple Watch is being delivered to the first buyers.

[House Atreides]

“I can’t imagine a use for these things (Apple Smart Watches)....

...I could see a use for Google glass, since it has a heads-up display. No need to look down at your phone or watch....

...I’m guessing that the pre-orders are driven by early-adopters and fashionistas. We’ll see if it has any staying power.”
****************************************************************************************************
I agree, we’ll see if it has staying power...and, IMHO, it almost certainly will.

Meanwhile, back at the Google glass ranch, Google has ended sales of that failed product.

http://www.businessinsider.com/google-ends-sales-of-google-glass-2015-1

[doorgunner69]

You made my head hurt with all that stuff, nor understand who Siri is (Tom Cruise's daughter?). Thank God I do not need to do much, if any of that.

Being a retired curmudgeon has its advantages.

[Rome2000]

The new funny baseball caps make more sense than wasting money on a watch that does the same thing as the phone that I by the way will need to carry or the watch won't work.

The people buying these things are metrosexual types or just really love anything Apple puts out.

[Swordmaker]

Being a retired curmudgeon has its advantages.

You have a good point there. I, however, find semi-retirement gives me more time to study and learn. My mind is always active and restless to learn more.