The Great Worker Shortage

Forbes ^ | 04/01/2015 | Steve Moore

[SeekAndFind]

The great conundrum of the U.S. economy today is that we have record numbers of working age people out of the labor ‎force at the same time we have businesses desperately trying to find workers. As an example, the American Transportation Research Institute estimates there are 30,000 – 35,000 trucker jobs that could be filled tomorrow if workers would take these jobs–a shortage that could rise to 240,000 by 2022.

While the jobs market overall remains weak, demand is high for in certain sectors. For skilled and reliable mechanics, welders, engineers, electricians, plumbers, computer technicians, and nurses, jobs are plentiful; one can often find a job in 48 hours. As Bob Funk, the president of Express Services, which matches almost one-half million temporary workers with emplo‎yers each year, “If you have a useful skill, we can find you a job. But too many are graduating from high school and college without any skills at all.”

The lesson, to play off of the famous Waylon Jennings song: Momma don’t let your babies grow up to be philosophy majors.

Three years ago the chronic disease of the economy was a shortage of jobs. This shortage persists in many sectors. But two other shortages are now being felt—the shortage of trained employees and of low-skilled employees willing to work. Patrick Doyle, the president of Domino’s Pizza, says that the franchises around the country are having a hard time filling delivery and clerical positions. “It’s a very tight labor market out there now.”

This shortage has an upside for workers because it allows them to bid up wages. When Wal-Mart announced last month that wages for many starter workers would rise to $9 an hour, well above the federal legal minimum, they weren’t being humanitarians. They were responding to a tightening labor market.

[Old Teufel Hunden]

"Don’t look to the computer industry either. It’s cheaper for the companies to offshore the work (wages far below 50% and none of the Obamacare or other requirements)."

As someone who works in the computer industry, I can tell you that is not my experience at all. We have used offshore workers and they are only helpful in the most rudimentary of projects. For one thing, the language barrier is a big problem. I have worked in this field for many years and I have never been without work. The only way you can be without a job as a programmer is if you don't keep your skillset up to date. If you are programming in the latest languages/technology platforms you can always find work. Every survey I see still projects the IT industry as one of fastest growing industries. This ancedotal evidence people are saying on here reminds me of the 1990s and NAFTA. The sucking sound you hear are all the jobs going to Mexico. Yeah right!!

[Old Teufel Hunden]

"How will trucking companies respond when they learn they can run the trucks 24 hours / day rather than 8 hours on and then sleep and rest breaks?"

Seriously, if that happens how long do you think that will take? No one in America is going to want trucks carrying tons and tons of material driving our highways self controlled until it's completely safe. I would say if you are 20 years old and entering the truck driving industry, you are probably fairly safe in your career field. I would imagine before you have self driving trucks, you are going to have to have "drone" trucks like we have drone planes. And guess what? Someone's gotta drive those drone trucks.

[FateAmenableToChange]

I’m actually fairly involved in some of the issues surrounding this. 10 years tops. Too much money at stake. The only saving grace is that they might need human presence in the event of an emergency, but I doubt it. Your drone comment is probably accurate — much easier to have drone monitoring capabilities on the trucks rather than a single driver.

As for safety, it is pretty clear that the trucks only a few generations from current tech will actually be more safe than with human drivers. They will have fewer accidents but will have different causes than human driver based accidents. Congress will give an agency statutory authority to regulate the use of driverless trucks and vehicles, and the agency will make a safety evaluation that will clear the vehicles. Congress critters will have their hands clean because it was an agency that gave final permission.

[Old Teufel Hunden]

My personnel opinion is that in 10 years America will still not be ready for driverless trucks, not even drone trucks. I don’t think anyone is going to be ready at that point to say a fuel truck carrying thousands of gallons of fuel will be okay to be driverless. Even if the technology is there, I don’t think people will be ready for it. And I don’t think the technology will be there yet. I think we will just be getting into drone planes making deliveries from Amazon on a regular basis in 10 years. Just my humble opinion.

[Fledermaus]

Can’t find them from our public schools.

[nascarnation]

You’re right.
And truck drivers get drug tested on a continuing basis.
That disqualifies a lot of folks.

I know a guy who works at a trash hauling outfit, they pay good money and no overnight travel. But you have to have a CDL and a lot of young guys can’t get there.

[Sequoyah101]

The takers are lazy but not dumb. Why give up at least $60k a year tax free and no work to work for $20, 30, 40, 50 or even 60K a year with no to minimal benefits and pay taxes?

Not working pays way too much.

I’ve been told with a straight face that it will take at least $30 an hour to get a guy to take a laborer job.