Apple’s iPhone Overtakes Android In US Sales For The First Time Since 2012

TechCrunch ^ | 2-3-15 | Ingrid Lunden

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Apple, in its flush of new, bigger iPhone 6 handsets, has been selling record numbers of its older and newer model smartphones in the last few months, and now it’s passed another significant milestone: it has managed to overtake sales of Android devices in the key market of the U.S. for the first time in three years.

[more below]

[bolobaby]

(Remember, I’ve really given up debating this point, but your post deserves at least one response...)

Think about the original article. What does it say? I’ll paraphrase: Apple has been losing since 2012 and finally came back to win a quarter!

That’s the subtext - Apple has *been losing*.

My analysis was specifically designed to address whether this comeback is a trend or a blip. I see it as a blip. Why? Because there is pent-up demand in a market niche that is being filled.

I’m good at this type of analysis. It’s why I am usually able to make money in the stock market. For the record, I *have* owned Apple stock in the past and made money on it. The question at hand is “what is driving the swap in sales leaders?” I think my analysis is fair and accurate. iPhone users, for the most part, are upgrading their iPhones. Once that upgrade cycles is done, the underlying market dynamic - which is that Android is crushing Apple in market share - will take back over.

This is objective analysis and not driven by hatred. The reason I say things like “the cult of Apple” is because it would never occur to an Apple user who wanted a bigger screen to just go get a Galaxy Note, for example. They waited and waited for Apple to finally produce a bigger screen. When you have the mentality that only ONE product brand will do, you become blind to things like actual features and price.

I have owned both Android and Apple devices. I can unequivocally say that I personally prefer the Android devices I’ve owned. I no longer own an Apple device, although my daughter has an iPod. It works for her.

As a technologist, features and capabilities matter to me. As a businessman, price matters to me. As a human being, usability matters to me. A couple years ago, when it became clear that I was using my phone more as a mini-computer, I decided that I should get a large screen device. I bought Android and haven’t looked back.

Apple has joined the large screen party (albeit late). Will this put them permanently into a leading market share role? My analysis says “no.”

I have been wrong about other things in the past, but - at least anecdotally - I have seen Apple make significant missteps to lose a market leadership position. That’s the only reason I bring that up. I believe history will repeat itself.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

[Worldwide market share of Android stabile at around 80%; iOS at around 15%] Funny use of the term “took down."

In that sense, yes. There are two markets for smartphones - the commodity market and the (Apple-invented, Apple-dominated) luxury market. For all the talk of “the 1%” in America, worldwide, if you take in $33,000 per year you are in the 99^th percentile. Consequently, if you can sell in the luxury market, you will do vastly better in the US than you will on a worldwide market share basis.

But that doesn’t mean that you can’t sell overseas; for example, notoriously “poor” India has enough people who are well enough off to constitute a market equivalent to France. And even among those who can afford it, a given luxury good may be a matter of taste and personal circumstance; for example, I could certainly afford an iPhone, but I haven’t elected to spend the money for any smartphone.

[11th Commandment]

My bad- I was looking at a similar article also posted on thread where APPLE clearly state they surpassed SAMSUNG. It is tech news who had the wrong headline...

[aMorePerfectUnion]

bolobaby,
Thanks for the explanation. We will disagree on some parts, but that is normal.

In regards to Apple, I think they lost their way with the departure of Jobs. They had a ridiculous number of me too products. His first action was to eliminate almost all of those products and innovate.

That innovation led to Google copying the Apple system features. You should be grateful. Apple has now copied some Android features like the bigger screen.

You can argue that the largest player “controls” the market. I argue that the purpose of a company is to get and keep a customer in a profitable way. All three needed. Using my definition, Apple created a long-term business. They do not need to the the largest controller of the market. They have a very well integrated product line and a strong eco-system of profits that reaches into music, apps, tv shows and movies, podcasts, and niche markets they dominate inside of. All that means that they are more than phones. And most importantly, their products just work.

Having said that, I like competition and I really don’t care what phone anyone picks, any more than I care if they drive a Yugo or a Lexus.

[As an aside... You are an investor. I spent my career as an RIA, hedge fund manager and mutual fund manager. We have that in common. Today, I am a venture capitalist and also buy alternative assets.]

OK, so here is where we disagree. “iPhone users, for the most part, are upgrading their iPhones. Once that upgrade cycles is done, the underlying market dynamic - which is that Android is crushing Apple in market share - will take back over.”

iPhone users are upgrading, as they routinely do every two years. Android users are also now upgrading to iPhones. Many went to android phones to get a bigger screen. Now that is not an issue. Two years from now, more upgrading will occur - either way - depending on who creates value.

What is not to miss is that you can capture market share by making products close to free. You do not become a profitable business that way. There will always be more poor people who want a cheap product than affluent people who want greater value at greater cost. Companies can be created with business models in each of these markets.

“The reason I say things like “the cult of Apple” is because it would never occur to an Apple user who wanted a bigger screen to just go get a Galaxy Note, for example. They waited and waited for Apple to finally produce a bigger screen. When you have the mentality that only ONE product brand will do, you become blind to things like actual features and price.”

This is an assumption. They did not move to Android because by doing so, they lose the value they prefer. If anything, it says just how strongly these consumers prefer an apple product - so much that they will “suffer” with a smaller screen and see what is coming next. They freely decided that they will pay more for a system they prefer, even with a smaller screen, than to pay less for an (perceived) inferior product. That is the market at work, Adam Smith’s invisible hand, lifting apple’s fortunes because they are satisfying their customers.

“Apple has joined the large screen party (albeit late). Will this put them permanently into a leading market share role? My analysis says “no.”

I don’t think they ever foresee capturing the “leading market share.” That is not their profitable business model.

“I have been wrong about other things in the past”

Happened to me once too!

[aMorePerfectUnion]

“My bad”

No offense taken. I just post what the title is at the site. It makes it easier to prevent duplicates

[Sam Gamgee]

Thanks for the advise. My parents had the Samsung then went to the Ipad instead saying it was much easier to use. If the apple is practically the same price why would anyone go with Samsung?

[aMorePerfectUnion]

bolobaby,
More on the levels of why people buy...

Worth a read to understand Apple and Disney, etc.

http://thestoryoftelling.com/people-buy-need-know/

[Swordmaker]

Bear in mind that when I was originally referring to the “cult of Apple,” I never said “*You* are a cultist” to anyone.

Any reference to the "Cult of Apple" is intended to include all Apple users. That is how it is used and has been used on ALL Apple threads and you don't get a pass because you did not direct it at an individual. it is still an ad hominem and a slur. i agree that AMorePerfectUnion probably did start the insults but your remark was not timely in reference to the reply to which you posted the comment.

You think that Apple lost the PC wars, yet Apple takes home 57% of the world wide profits in the PC industry. And Apple Mac's Market share is growing faster by double digits percentages than Microsoft's Market share in every quarter save one in the last 40 quarters. In my book, that is not losing. That's winning. . . Just it takes time to overcome the lead Microsoft achieved in the beginning. When the market share growth of ONLY company's computer line is the only thing that keeps the entire industry in positive growth is Apple's Macs, that's winning. You just refuse to see it.

Apple is winning the OS War — ComputerWorld 12/4/2013.

Apple May Have Won The PC War… By Losing The Windows Battle — TechCrunch 11/22/2011

Apple's Mac could finally win the war against Microsoft's Windows — The Motley Fool.10/24/2013

2. Many of us in IT who build mobile (web or native) apps do not adopt an “Apple first” strategy. Why? Because you get less exposure on an Apple device. Profits of the manufacturers aside, we want to build apps and sites that work with the largest customer base. It ain’t Apple customers. Sure, we have to account for more differences when building Android-first, but the ROI is greater because the customer base is greater.

2. Many of us in IT who build mobile (web or native) apps do not adopt an “Apple first” strategy. Why? Because you get less exposure on an Apple device. Profits of the manufacturers aside, we want to build apps and sites that work with the largest customer base. It ain’t Apple customers. Sure, we have to account for more differences when building Android-first, but the ROI is greater because the customer base is greater.

That is totally contrary to reality. The vast majority of mobile developers do not develop first for Android. What world do you live on? Android users really do not buy. They spend money at 1/4th to 1/3rd the rate that iOS users spend money. This is a fact attested to in multiple studies and by the results of online sales and the results of app store sales. Android users want FREE apps. Many apps are never ported to Android at all because it is simply not economical worthwhile to port the app to Android for the cost/return benefit. Again, that is a fact.

iPhone users pay average of 19 cents per app, Android users pay just 6 cents
By Michael Harper
Thursday, July 18, 2013, 09:14 am PT (12:14 pm ET)

The dominance of free mobile applications continues to grow, as a new study reveals that iPhone users spend an average of 19 cents per app downloaded, while Android users spend only 6 cents per download.

And that is still the case. Most apps get released on iOS first and then, maybe get released in a more crippled form for Android, usually in a FREE form with support by Advertising. In App after sakes are rising for Android from these free apps, but still is around 40% of the rate for iOS devices. . . despite iOS devices being seven times fewer installed base than Android's installed base.

Then there are mobile purchases, iOS users simply are better customers than Android users. They literally have more money and are more likely to buy. . . so they are more DESIRABLE to develop for.

Why do iOS users buy more stuff than Android users? Because they have more money
December 3, 2014 1:15 PM
Mark Sullivan

A research report from Custora shows that the vast majority of mobile shopping purchases from Black Friday through Cyber Monday happened on Apple devices. iPhone and iPad users accounted for 78 percent of mobile purchases, while Android users accounted for only 22 percent, Custora says.

That is the real world that you seem not to inhabit but that most real developers do live in.

So, I’m totally stoked that an American company is making crazy profits, but my original point still stands: their customer base is smaller, the profit bump they just experienced is due to pent up demand amongst their customer base for larger screens, and once their customers have the larger screens, demand will fall.

You are not paying attention. This sales "bump" as you called it, could NOT have come from Apple's customer base buying larger screens. Independent surveys run by disinterested survey companies such as Neilson show that 85% of the buyers of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6plus are previous owners of ANDROID phones! They cannot by any stretch of anyone's imagination except, perhaps your strained imagination, be called Apple cultists, Apple users, Apple customer base. A large percentage of them are found in CHINA where they are buying their first Apple product, and again can NOT be considered to have EVER BEEN APPLE CUSTOMERS! You are delusional if you think so. Claiming 33% of South Korea's Cellular Phone Market from Android, from Samsung and LG customers, cannot have come from "Apple's customers!" You are delusional if you think those several million Koreans were Apple Cultists. WAKE UP!,p> There were already over 600,000,000 iPhones out there in the hands of previous Apple customers, of whom the VAST majority did not upgrade to iPhone 6 and iPhone 6plus. In fact, since 85% of the approximately 60 million iPhone 6 models sold (Apple was still selling iPhone 5, 5C, and 4S during the quarter), only about 9 million (the 15% that were not Android users) were sold to existing Apple customers whose contracts were up and could. YOUR premise is completely shot down in flames.

Sorry if that analysis is being lost in all the other stats flying around, which all fail to address that simple point. Everyone is throwing noise into the conversation to defend Apple in a cult-like fashion, but no one has yet to provide a sensible rebuttal to that specific analysis. Probably because it’s accurate.

You've just ignored all the facts that rebutted your biased analysis that did not reflect reality. YOU want to believe what YOU want to believe. . . even if it flies in the face of all the financial reports, surveys, and facts. For you, your delusional biased anti-Apple delusional opinion trumps everything else.

[bolobaby]

Glad you spent all that time on a response I’ll never read. Guess you missed the part where I said I gave up on this thread.

[Swordmaker]

Sorry if that analysis is being lost in all the other stats flying around, which all fail to address that simple point. Everyone is throwing noise into the conversation to defend Apple in a cult-like fashion, but no one has yet to provide a sensible rebuttal to that specific analysis. Probably because it’s accurate.

There is one other very important fact of the Android market share that you are totally ignoring. . . and that is the definition of exactly what is an Android phone. That is a very serious question. Every single iPhone Apple has sold has been a genuine smartphone.

Two years ago during the testimony of the Apple vs. Samsung patent infringement trial, Judge Lucy Koh forced Samsung to reveal the product mix of the cellular phones they ship.

It turns out that only a little over 30% of the Android phones they ship were Android Smartphones that could download apps, use WIFI, connect to the Internet, had a good to excellent camera/video, and be considered competitors with anything Apple had ever sold in the iPhone line.

Another 40 percent of Samsung's phones were what are defined as Android Feature Phones, which shipped with a fixed set of apps, a selection of games, camera (higher end with video) , messaging (high end with MMS), could connect to WIFI for Internet, use cellular for phone calls only, but could not download apps from the Google Play Store, but could "buy apps" to be activated that were already installed on the phone as features to be switched on.

Finally another 30% of Samsung's shipped phones were dumb Android phones that had a very limited set of Apps similar to candy bar and flip phones that might have messaging, still camera or no camera at all, limited email, and phone capability for the really low end market.

70% of Samsung's phone users COULD NOT BE CANDIDATES for any Google Play App store sales at all! Another 30% of their phones could not be candidates for any Internet presence or online marketing by any means! If the #1 Android phone seller's product mix is that lopsided, what about LG and the others' product mixes since they competed in the same markets for the same customers as Samsung? They all sold Feature Phones and they all sold dumb phones.

Analysts found that 90-95% of Android phones are in the Feature and low end categories because some of the 225 Android makers don't make smartphones at all, concentrating instead on Feature phones and low-end market commodity phones. . . not competitors against even the high end Android phones, much less the high-end iPhones.

My point is that the Android smartphone market is NOT as big as what people think it is. The numbers have been inflated for years by counting all those Feature and dumb phones being included. Certainly it turns out that Samsung's numbers included them. . . and going back, no other Android company separated out their product mix from phones shipped and the indiscriminate punditry just printed the raw numbers shipped. Also, Apple is the only company involved that actually reports actual phones SOLD to end users. . . not just "shipped" into the sales stream.

As an aside: It has also been learned that about 25% of the Android Tablet Market Share is composed of under $40 White Box Toy tablets that cannot even connect to WIFI or the Internet. . . and are part of the Android market share simply by grace of being loaded with Android. . . yet they are counted by organizations such as IDC and Gartner in the "Other Android tablets" category as competing with high-end Apple iPads, completely distorting the market share percentages.

Analysts found that 90-95% of Android phones are in the Feature and low end categories because many of the 225 Android makers don't make smartphones at all, concentrating instead on Feature phones and low-end market commodity phones. . . and they are simply not competitors against even the upper-end Android phones, much less the high-end iPhones, but are indiscriminately counted in the Android market share numbers and percentages.

That explains a LOT of why the numbers of Android Market Share do not translate to Internet usage share or App Store purchase or mobile market purchases. Most of the Android phones and tablets out there simply cannot participate in those activities because they are incapable of participating!

[Swordmaker]

Glad you spent all that time on a response I’ll never read. Guess you missed the part where I said I gave up on this thread.

YOU ASKED for a discussion of your points. . . but again you proved my point. DISMISSAL is another form of ad hominem. You are true to form. YOU do not want to engage. You CHOOSE to ignore anything that might prove you wrong and disturb your fantasy. Run and hide. Typical of the troll.

[Star Traveler]

That is quite enlightening, Swordmaker, and something to remember!

[Star Traveler]

Yep, typical of a close-minded individual, Swordmaker ... he was just someone who put up the pretense of wanting to know, but never really did!

[MHGinTN]

Not a phone, but I have an Android tablet and using Google docs I can even do my writing with it. Of course I have a Bluetooth folder/keyboard with it, but it does get the work done when I have no PC or laptop available.

[Swordmaker]

Not a phone, but I have an Android tablet and using Google docs I can even do my writing with it. Of course I have a Bluetooth folder/keyboard with it, but it does get the work done when I have no PC or laptop available.

I've been writing two novels on my iPad . . . up to several hundred pages so far. No issues to speak of. I use Apple Pages. But Microsoft Office is available for iPad too. FREE.

[bolobaby]

Look guys, I engaged through multiple posts, during which you never addressed my original point. Finally, I gave up. Then you post a *book* of a post and expect me to spend my valuable time revisiting a topic I abandoned.

Call that “troll” behavior if you want, but you should have gotten to the point to begin with. You can’t even admit that the original article’s title means “Apple has been *losing in the market share battle since 2012* and /finally/ won a quarter.” Get it? They were losing in the market share battle. You can blather on all you want about profits - I didn’t make a point about profits. I made a point that the market share gain is short lived.

Now, I as previously stated, I’m done with this thread. Your responses past the point when I originally said I was done only serve to embarrass yourself in a weak attempt to insult and bait someone back into a fight which they have left. Please don’t embarrass yourselves further. Or do. I don’t care.

[MHGinTN]

I purchased an iPad. The thing locked up/crashed twice in less than a week. The Apple rep I corresponded with finally instructed me to stick a pin inot the hole and restart the thing. After two times doing that and losing all the things I had put on the device, I took it back to Sam's and got a full refund. That refund paid for an Android tablet and a 64gb card with adapter, for $150 less than just the iPad.

You're only writing two at a time? LOL

[MHGinTN]

Google docs is free and it is very similar to the system I use on my PC, Apache Writer. I can upload to the Android via Google docs then use the Google editing function to continue working on the upload. The android powered tablet has yet to seize up, and that’s a good thing. The sd card in the Android allows me to carry 64gb of extra storage from which to upload stuff to Google docs for editing.

[Swordmaker]

Look guys, I engaged through multiple posts, during which you never addressed my original point. Finally, I gave up. Then you post a *book* of a post and expect me to spend my valuable time revisiting a topic I abandoned.

Look bolobaby, I just reviewed all 78 comments on this thread and you are crying crocodile tears.

You've been engaged by the posters and THEY HAVE ADDRESSED EVERY SINGLE POINT YOU'VE BROUGHT UP IN EVERY SINGLE POST YOU'VE MADE WITH AUTHORITATIVE LINKS REFUTING YOUR CONTENTIONS. You then dodged, weaved, posted out-of-date graphs as your only counter proof, which multiple posters, including I, called you on, which you ignored and did not respond with any kind of cogent response and then went on repeating your contention as though we said nothing.

You now claim that Apple has just won a single quarter, even though you cherry picked your graph to end THREE QUARTER'S AGO, because Apple has been on the ascendency for three quarters and Android has been declining for three complete quarters. . . and the graphs we posted to refute you make that quite plain. Evidence that it is NOT just a single quarter but THREE. . . and also proof that you simply do not want to see the trend that Android is in decline. Or read the evidence we ENGAGED you with while you provided not one single link to prove your unsupported opinion, while we provided multiple links to evidence.

It is obvious you just don't bother to READ the responses, and in fact then PROUDLY DISMISSED the arguments as NOT WORTH YOUR VALUABLE TIME and throw more worthless opinion against the wall thinking your exalted commentary is so obvious people will bow down in awe and agree with you without a scintilla of evidence along with throw away lines of idiocy such as "Profits are not all that important." Sorry, all that demonstrates is that you don't have an ounce of business sense in your head. NOPE, not an ounce! By that theory, two people can get rich down at the bottom of a hole selling each other dirt.

That is the pattern of a troll. You might as well wear the sobriquet proudly. You earned it in this thread.

The only one embarrassed here is you.

[Star Traveler]

Yep, you nailed it!