The Indiana Jones of collapsed cultures: Our Western civilization itself is a bubble

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, there has been much debate among economists and policy makers on how best to prevent systemic collapses. Yet there is little data to go on: these are unprecedented times of sustained unemployment, fiscal stimulus, and price-earnings ratios. Perhaps, as Alan Greenspan recently suggested, we need to look to anthropology to see the really long-term trends.

With this in mind, I interviewed one of the world’s leading archaeologists, Arthur Demarest, who studies the collapse of ancient civilizations, from Greece and Rome to the Maya and Aztecs. Demarest, the Ingram Professor of Anthropology at Vanderbilt University, has been called the “real Indiana Jones” (see, for example, “The Real Indiana Jones and His Pyramids of Doom and “A 1,200-Year Old Murder Mystery in Guatemala”) for his daring explorations and spectacular finds in the Maya jungles. But from his tent in the Guatemalan rainforest, Demarest grapples with the big question of what causes collapses.

I ask Demarest, given his study of the fall of societies, what are the lessons we should take away for our own system. His answer: “We are in trouble.” But the reasons why might surprise you.

Arthur Demarest: Paradoxically, the key strengths of civilizations are also their central weaknesses. You can see that from the fact that the golden ages of civilizations are very often right before the collapse.

A really thought provoking article. Easy to pigeonhole according to your political belief. But the real nugget is to see it as how a society needs to behave to survive on the long term. For instance, our society is so interlinked that if all of the bridges on the Mississippi river disappeared tonight, we would have a major economic collapse in America that would takes years to overcome if not destroy our society.

No society is rich enough or long term thinking enough to put in the redundancy in infrastructure to survive a really major disaster, e.g. a solar flair like the one that hit America in the 19th century. I forget who, but to paraphrase a pretty famous author- "poverty and conflict are the norm, peace and prosperity are the exception."

Carroll Quigley, in his The Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to Historical Analysis has another take on this subject that I’ve found fascinating – and possibly more correct. He postulated that Western civilizations proceed through the following stages:

1. Mixture - different societies come into contact and produce a society with an outlook different from any of the combined parts.

2. Gestation - the period of time between the mixing of the different societies and the expansion of the civilization.

3. Expansion - the surplus generated by the society is invested in activities that benefit the civilization. This can include an increase in knowledge, increase in physical area, technological advancements that increase efficiency, etc. Civilizations make use of different instruments of expansion. Quigley calls a social organization or unit an instrument if it meets social needs.

4. Age of Conflict - The rate of increase resulting from the use of one or more social instruments slows down which results in "interesting times". The instrument can be reformed or a new instrument consistent with the civilization's outlook can circumvent the old instrument. If reform is achieved, a new age of expansion begins. If the vested interests of the previous instrument of expansion increasingly consume resources while serving no social needs, Quigley says that the instrument has then become an institution. Expansion can continue, but it is at the expense of neighbors, which leads to imperialist wars. When the vested interests have crushed all internal opposition, the next stage appears.

5. Universal Empire - typically a state or political unit on the periphery of the civilization gains power over the whole civilization. The illusion of a golden age appears. The social organization remains stagnant.

6. Decay - lack of belief in the civilization's outlook or inability to meet needs of the people leads to people opting out of the system. An age of cynicism, low cunning and despair.

7. Invasion - external forces disrupt the civilization's social organization and it is unable or unwilling to defend itself. That spells the end of the civilization. Loss of civilizational will.

Quigley stated that modern Western civilization as embodied by America has succeeded in arriving at the brink of the Age of Conflict stage no fewer than four times, but has always managed to reinvigorate itself by launching into a new Age of Expansion. Recall that expansion in Quigley's terms doesn't necessarily apply to the acquisition of new territory. If he’s correct, we’re now out of options, and that we’ve progressed rapidly through to stage 6. I have my own ideas about what’s going on with respect to the role that the will to power has played in modern times.

The “collapse” of Western Civilization is not accidental or unplanned. It is the result of combined deliberate attacks for decades by socialist Leftists who seek to tear down the system and exact revenge for attacks on and opposition to global Communism.

They still believe in a Socialist Utopia if only the Ugly American didn’t muck about in other countries (that are being shaped by global Islam and global Communism and independent dictatorships).

Feminists sought to smash the patriarchy and smash monogamy. The collapse of the family unit was deliberate. They continue their attacks on the “institution” of marriage.

Question authority (as they once said). Question just what it is they seek to replace the “old” order with and who put them in charge to change things without debate.

Nails our current political climate:

Arthur Demarest: When there is pressure for leaders to respond to problems or crises, they often simply intensify their efforts in their particular defined sphere of activity – even if that’s not relevant to the real problem. To do otherwise requires taking on entrenched practices and asserting power in areas where it often will not be well received. And leaders tend to see major crises more as threats to their own position rather than as systemic challenges for the societies that they govern or the institutions that they manage.

Frenzied grand constructions, wars and great rituals are among the common responses of ancient leaders to crises. These demonstrate powerful responses by the leaders (enhancing their threatened hold on power), but almost never really address the problems themselves. A cynic might characterize the giant U.S. stimulus bill of 2009 as such an effort.

Leaders may recognize that they are not addressing the real problems, but they rationalize their actions with the argument that they must first politically survive in order to later address the hard problems and sacrifices. Of course, they usually don’t ever actually get around to addressing the fundamental problems later, either because they don’t make it through the initial crisis or because, even later, they are not willing to risk sacrificing their own position (or “career”) with needed measures that usually require tough sacrifices by the population.

Strauss and Howe have a similar theory that they call generational turnings. Generations progress through 4 stages: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.

They believe we’ve progressed through 4 such cycles in the US. Each turn lasts about 20 years, with the cycle roughly 80-90 years. High is a post crisis turn that has institutions more in charge and individuals weak. Crisis is when the “Hero” generation reshapes institutions after moving back to individualism in the awakening and losing confidence in the insitutions in the unraveling.

There’s another similar one which gives the generations different names, but I think they have more than 4 stages/generations. Forget the name of that one.

I got a giggle out of that. I have been stating for some time that we are in the back side of a Golden Age whose passing will be bitterly regretted by our successors. And there isn't a damn thing we can do about it.

The point to the fall of other such ages - the author cited that of Athens and later of the Italian Renaissance - is not that their host societies fell, but that the ideas behind them did not; instead, were passed down like seeds to other fallow fields. If all we can do is preserve those seeds, it will suffice.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.