Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary October 25, 2014

Weatherbell Analytics ^ | October 25, 2014 | Joe Bastardi

[Excellence]

Final winter forecast.

[Excellence]

JB Ping

[bigbob]

I’ve never really watched him go thru this level of detail before...wow. No wonder the conventional forecasts are always wrong.

[Parley Baer]

Thank you for the posting.

[randita]

Condensed +-4 degrees colder than average and 167% more snow than average. So IMO pretty much of a repeat of last winter for most folks.

[tflabo]

Interesting tidbit map at the end showing more snow up in the arctic regions vs. last years model.

[outofsalt]

So.., arctic snowfall is ahead of last year even though the warmists are claiming it was the warmest September EVER!?

That climate change sure is tricky.

I hope his deep trough in the east for next weekend persists into election day and dampens liberal voting.

[Excellence]

I hope his deep trough in the east for next weekend persists into election day and dampens liberal voting.

Keeping a good thought in mind.

[eartick]

I remember the winter of ‘76 and ‘77 in South Texas. We had ice and a lot of freezing that year.

Having to feed cows and hungry steers that were on grass leases that my dad and uncle had. Cannot remember exactly how many different grass leases they had but they would raise steers to 2 year old then sell. The also had a feed lot that they fed out during this time.

Frozen water troughs that had to have the ice busted off so they could drink. Had to do that several times a day. Drive from one lease to another feed bust ice.

Yep, one miserable winter.

[PapaNew]

Final winter forecast.

Thanks for posting. Very interesting and fun. Nice to get something with reasonably independent thinking and analysis rather than forecasts based on relatively unexamined models not being questioned.

Is the title you gave above from Bastardi's post somewhere or your summary of the forecast for the week?

[Diana in Wisconsin]

BUMP! Joe and a Martini on the menu for tonight. :)

[Excellence]

I copy and paste from Weatherbell’s website.

[BroJoeK]

At 11:10 brother JoeB feels inspired to break into a chorus of the old Hymn, "Bringing in the Sheaves", but sadly didn't remember the word -- it's sheaves, not sheep! ;-)

"Sowing in the morning,
sowing seeds of kindness,
Sowing in the noontide and the dewy eve;
Waiting for the harvest, and the time of reaping,
We shall come rejoicing, bringing in the sheaves.
Refrain:
Bringing in the sheaves, bringing in the sheaves,
We shall come rejoicing, bringing in the sheaves;
Bringing in the sheaves, bringing in the sheaves,
We shall come rejoicing, bringing in the sheaves.

Sowing in the sunshine, sowing in the shadows,
Fearing neither clouds nor winter’s chilling breeze;
By and by the harvest, and the labor ended,
We shall come rejoicing, bringing in the sheaves.

Going forth with weeping, sowing for the Master,
Though the loss sustained our spirit often grieves;
When our weeping’s over, He will bid us welcome,
We shall come rejoicing, bringing in the sheaves."

"Sheaves" are plural of "sheaf", meaning a bundle of grain being harvested around this time of year...

It's a great old song (1880), entirely appropriate for a weatherman, though not so much expected while, as Joe forecasts, "troughing in the east"... ;-)

[Jack Hydrazine]

This is from Firsthand Weather's Facebook page posted on 23OCT2014 with the following text.

"The latest European ensemble model shows aggressive cold air pushing into the eastern half of the United States to kick off the beginning of November. Its earlier run showed the exact opposite with warmth building over the East and troughing over the West.

The last several runs of the GFS have also been bullish on the cold air invading the eastern half of the United States.

This is something that I am going to watch because I was originally leaning more towards a warm start to November in the East and a cool start in the West with a possible storm system moving over California dumping a lot of needed rain. If the latest European model were to verify, this would not be the case, but please understand that this is something that I need to watch for a couple more days before I make a solid forecast. Weather forecasting this time of year can get tricky!

Regardless of what happens, I believe we will eventually flip colder in the eastern U.S. and back warmer in the West later in November. It just might happen sooner than I thought. I'll keep you updated. Model courtesy: WSI. -Matthew

[Excellence]

I’m hoping the western warmth attracts moisture, especially California. But I don’t hold out hope of getting anything out of Ana.