Posted on 09/17/2014 3:51:45 PM PDT by Kartographer
Despite the best efforts of the World Health Organization and Doctors Without Borders, Ebola is expected to rage on in West Africa for another 12-18 months, with 20,000 cases predicted. Without coordination of relief efforts, the ability to contain the disease is limited and has been labeled a “failure” to date. Countries are sending supplies and equipment in piecemeal fashion. The U.S., for example, is setting up a 25 bed hospital for its part. Unfortunately, it’s far too little to make a dent in the epidemic.
It’s difficult for a person in a developed country to believe that medical systems, economies, even governments, might fail as a result of a virus. The average U.S. citizen suffers from what we call “Normalcy Bias”. This is the tendency to be believe that, since things have been just fine, everything will always remain so. This is foolhardy thinking at best, and dangerous thinking at worst. One wonders what the effect of normalcy bias was in 1918 when the Spanish Flu hit America.
(Excerpt) Read more at doomandbloom.net ...
For starters, I passed high school algebra, including the part about exponential functions. That's all you need to understand that the epidemic is accelerating.
You stated:
Epidemics of this kind do not work like that. It has probably reached near its peak already. This can be said with some certainty because of several factors. (emphasis mine)
1) It is not yet pulmonary, transmitted by coughs and sneezes.
In point of fact, it can be transmitted by coughs and sneezes. Blood, saliva and sputum contain the virus, and they can all be spread by a cough or sneeze. Would you really be confident you wouldn't get Ebola if a patient sneeze or coughed on you? Really?
2) While people may be infected for just a few to 21 days before showing symptoms, they are only infectious to others when they are showing symptoms. This is a major flaw.
That is the current belief, but it has not been firmly established. There is also evidence that they may be infectious before symptoms occur (read The Hot Zone).
3) From showing symptoms to death is about 10 days, during half of which they are incapacitated. So while appearing very sick to others, they only have 5 days to infect others.
So according to your hypothesis, a person lying in a hospital bed, or being cared for at home by their family, can't infect others, despite the fact that the bedding, the floors, the walls and ceiling, will all be splattered with blood, feces, urine, and vomit? And that their bodies and bedding magically become sterile once they die? That should comfort the hundreds of health care workers who have died.
Even if your assertions were true, they only relate to how the disease spreads, and in no way support the idea that the epidemic has already peaked. To support your contention that the epidemic has peaked, you'd have to AT LEAST show me data where the number of cases has started to decline, instead of it's current trajectory, which is in positive acceleration.
I will not waste any more of my time responding to such absurd claims.
The H1N1 swine flu pandemic killed more than 284,000 people worldwide in 2009 and 2010.
CDC data - “Each year in the United States, at least 2 million people become infected with bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics and at least 23,000 people die each year as a direct result of these infections. Many more people die from other conditions that were complicated by an antibiotic-resistant infection.”
“In 2012, 90 percent of the world’s malaria deaths occurred in Africa and about 460,000 African children died before their fifth birthdays,” the WHO 2013 malaria report said.”
“Diarrhea — a preventable and treatable condition — kills about 1.5 million children each year — more than malaria, AIDS and measles combined, according to global health organizations.”
Now these are good points about diarrheas, malaria and flu are good points to remember. They do help put the Ebola epidemic in perspective.
But they're not the only points to keep in mind. The fact remains that there is a disease spreading at an exponential rate. This disease kills at a rate of over 50%. It is relatively unknown and suspected of being highly mutatable. Health care workers are contracting and dying from this disease at a staggering rate, in areas where trained health care workers are scarce to begin with, and the loss of any one of which will make it that much harder to stop the epidemic. The disease kills its victims in a particularly gruesome way, which only adds to the panic. The people on the front lines of fighting this disease are overwhelmed.
So just because Obama and the media are now paying attention to Ebola, and just because there aren't yet 100,000 dying every day, that doesn't mean it doesn't deserve the attention it's getting.
By that logic, everyone on gun threads sells guns.
/johnny
I value your skepticism , and your opinion as you have expressed it on other issues in the past.
On this issue , which could affect the mass of humanity, I disagree with your analysis of the current Ebola situation.
Yes, it is a blessing that the illness is currently isolated to West Africa , however, it is a disease that has already claimed more than four times more victims
than any other previous outbreak of Ebola. Effective containment of the disease is only know to be QUARANTINE .
There is no proven vaccine ; there is no known cure; there is only containment as a proven control of the disease.
With the statistical analysis, the limited periodic numbers of victims given by WHO/CDC, the disease is expected to spread exponentially ,
and is expected to spread due to modern modes of transportation (ie: airlines , trains , automobiles, etc. )
It is no longer restricted to the out-back , or in the bush.
Survival without medical care is 10%; survival with modern medical care and procedures is only 30%, assumeing that medical supplies are available.
I also don't fear Ebola at this point, however I am concerned by the apparent disregard by this administration toward the safety and well-being of its citizens.
I agree that the media are crisis oriented, sounding the alarm frequently to gain viewers or readers, and professing the foretelling of doom
I am not with those folks , but I prefer to be informed.
In this case , Ebola is infecting other countries and nations and needlessly creating additional victims .
I do not fear for myself , but , I am concerned for my children and their emotional and physical well-being and prefer to be informed for their sake.
I have not changed my simple lifestyle, nor do I expect to change until Ebola is found to be on this continent.
Even then I will not fear, but I will adapt my lifestyle to adapt to my concerns . I will not panic ,
.. but I will prepare, and will look forward to your comments here and elsewhere on this website.
We're on the same page then, FRiend. I'm not saying that I don't watch these issues, nor do I have a disregard for the gravity of the situation. The interconnected nature of the world is such that this just takes one plane full of infected people to land in a western country to spread like wildfire. But the time to panic is not yet here.
Watch carefully. Care watchfully. Don't disregard the risk, but don't put fear in charge.
I agree FRiend
That is why I am at this site , rather than elsewhere
and enjoy the fellowship and occassional difference of opinion..
.that cause me to critically think.
Let’s refresh on the whole “exponential” thing.
Some wit plotted the exponential increase of Ebola, on the assumption that it actually was exponential. Let’s see how exponential it behaves.
Mar, 2014 – Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 – Infected: 203 Dead: 122
May, 2014 – Infected: 417 Dead: 250
Jun, 2014 – Infected: 898 Dead: 539
Jul, 2014 – Infected: 2,031 Dead: 1,218
Aug, 2014 – Infected: 4,821 Dead: 2,892
Sep, 2014 – Infected: 12,016 Dead: 7,210
Oct, 2014 – Infected: 31,448 Dead: 18,869
Nov, 2014 – Infected: 86,421 Dead: 51,853
Dec, 2014 – Infected: 249,365 Dead: 149,619
Jan, 2015 – Infected: 755,513 Dead: 453,308
Feb, 2015 – Infected: 2,403,461 Dead: 1,442,077
Mar, 2015 – Infected: 8,028,264 Dead: 4,816,958
Apr, 2015 – Infected: 28,157,589 Dead: 16,894,553
May, 2015 – Infected: 103,695,185 Dead: 62,217,111
Jun, 2015 – Infected: 400,969,208 Dead: 240,581,525
Jul, 2015 – Infected: 1,627,993,821 Dead: 976,796,293
Aug, 2015 – Infected: 6,940,388,486 Dead: 4,164,233,092
A lot depends on the exponent, doesn't it? Who knows what exponent he used. Not only that, but no one is saying it's going to play out as the projections are listed. But just because at some point the exponential increase can't be sustained doesn't mean it isn't increasing exponentially now, or will for the near future.
You're right... at some point the exponential increase will fade. But when? After 1,000 people have died? 2,000? 10,000? 100,000? 1,000,000? We know for sure it's sometime after 2,589.
You stated: It has probably reached near its peak already. What evidence is there of that? I've not seen any. All the evidence I've seen is that it's currently spreading at a rate of 2.962% per day, basing the calculations on the number of reported cases on September 1 vs. the number of reported cases on September 14:
3707 * 1.0296213 = 5418.
That's exponential increase. When will it end? Who knows? Neither you nor I, for sure. But it is clearly increasing exponentially now. To deny that is to ignore relatively simple math. And there is no reason I'm aware of to think that it won't continue to increase exponentially for the foreseeable future, which, admittedly, is something less than 1 year from now.
It seems like you're not convinced, either, that it's a real concern. Am I reading you correctly?
Faulty math. At the current rate of increase in infections and deaths, modeled over the past nine months, the projection is for more than two billion people to die by September 2015.
Of course, the rate of increase could accelerate, decelerate, or stop completely. But right now, that's what the numbers project.
Preparation for Ebola is nothing like preparation for Influenza or many other infectious diseases.
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That’s a contradiction of what has been posted on the Ebola threads from the CDC. According to that there is overlap.
Obviously, if you don’t agree you are free to ignore Ebola and any other danger or disease out there.
Just as everyone else can prepare, and exchange their ideas on such preparation. Every one doesn’t have to agree with you that Ebola is a near zero threat to anyone in the USA.
As far as I’m concerned, I can wait a while. However, if I am proven to be correct, hopefully in future my opinions might be greeted with a bit more respect.
Respect is a two way street and respect does not mean agreement. As I said the issue of which disease one should be concerned about is not something that lends itself well to a overall general statement.
The amount of concern one has is based on current situations, potential problems, and probability. That’s a different equation for each person.
What many people reading these threads are wanting to know is, if I am concerned about Ebola, H5N1, H1N1, or even the common cold, what are some things that can be done to prepare.
Simply telling someone who is concerned about the “X” problem that they should not be concerned is in my opinion disrespectful of their questions regarding preparation.
YMMV.
Actually, I wasn’t arguing which was worse. H5N1 remains a threat, but until it mutates, it isn’t an imminent one—especially here.
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I must apologize. My entire post was a response to #50, where that sentiment was expressed. It was like a last straw, after reading so many posts over the last month that basically downplay many people’s concern and desire to prepare.
I did include your name in case you might want to chime in.
I greatly appreciate your efforts, and think you have been very fair and accurate. I agree with what you have just posted, most especially I agree with your last sentence:
“At no time have I really made light of the capabilities of the virus, nor its threat. My concern has been self-evident in this forum.”
I just wish everyone had the same concern. Thanks again for all your efforts, and the additional info you posted.
As long as the number of cases of this disease are increasing, health care systems in the region are overwhelmed, and travel in and out are not restricted, I expect a lot of people to be concerned.
Concern is not equivalent to “go through my day fearful of every sneeze, cough, and bead of sweat.”
It’s just a concern in a long list of concerns that people are experiencing, due to the interesting times in which we live. It’s not at the top of my list for probabilities, either, buy we all have varying degrees of concern.
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