Ebola: Does It Matter?

Doom and Bloom ^ | 9/16/14 | Joe Alton, M.D., aka Dr. Bones

[Kartographer]

Despite the best efforts of the World Health Organization and Doctors Without Borders, Ebola is expected to rage on in West Africa for another 12-18 months, with 20,000 cases predicted. Without coordination of relief efforts, the ability to contain the disease is limited and has been labeled a “failure” to date. Countries are sending supplies and equipment in piecemeal fashion. The U.S., for example, is setting up a 25 bed hospital for its part. Unfortunately, it’s far too little to make a dent in the epidemic.

It’s difficult for a person in a developed country to believe that medical systems, economies, even governments, might fail as a result of a virus. The average U.S. citizen suffers from what we call “Normalcy Bias”. This is the tendency to be believe that, since things have been just fine, everything will always remain so. This is foolhardy thinking at best, and dangerous thinking at worst. One wonders what the effect of normalcy bias was in 1918 when the Spanish Flu hit America.

[Smokin' Joe]

Truthfully, until Ebola gets into the 100,000 fatalities a day league, it is small potatoes. About the only contender in mortality like that is a “killer” influenza.

True, if you only consider the 'body count'.

However, economic disruption, the potential for supply chains to break down is enormous, considering the survival rate for the flu is so high as to be not considered by most to be a severe threat.

When the odds of living through a disease become 50/50, fear of contracting it will be more of a controlling issue than the disease.

In that instance, shortages or loss of vital services may cause more deaths and damage than the disease.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

Good, somebody who is educated in epidemiology should be able to explain why you think it hasn’t peaked. Perhaps you can first describe your credentials.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

Outside of a rare mutation, the most menacing influenza, the one that fits in this class, is H5N1, which for unknown reasons has not yet become easily H2H transmissible. Very atypically, since it was discovered it has maintained a 60% mortality rate. It is the nuclear weapon of epidemics.

The only epidemic that has come close to that in any mammal was the myxomatosis plague in Australian rabbits in the 1950s.

[null and void]

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

We’re gonna need

a bigger cart!

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[Smokin' Joe]

H5N1 only had about 500 human victims, iirc. There were a couple of H2H cases, but the nature of the virus is such that it prefers deep lung temperatures over cooler upper respiratory ones and thus is harder to transmit through the usual sneezing and coughing, etc.

[greeneyes]

EEGator appears to think that the prepper threads are an example of hysteria, and the Freepers are a bunch of shills for various prepper supply companies.(See the thread above).

When asked to name them, EEGator said he had no proof and named no names. I know that Kart, myself, Marcella, and JRandomFreeper are just people with a concern for others and give suggestions that we hope will be helpful and maybe even save someone’s life.

As to the hysterics. In Missouri, we have lived through many tornadoes in our areas and seen their destructive power. Marcella has had similar experiences with hurricanes.

It is not hysterical to know there is danger and prepare for it. That's smart, intelligent, and helps us survive. I'd say an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Now Globull warming - there's something that EEGator’s quote could be applied to, but to equate the prepper threads with something like that is not only an insult and inaccurate, it could be a symptom of being divorced from reality, or stupidity, or both. JMHO.

[Smokin' Joe]

I’d say some posters to FR sell prepper supplies.

Maybe they do, but the only item I have seen Kartographer post a link to is an e-book, one which is free.

That doesn't even rate the nefarious title of 'blog pimp', much less insinuations of using FR to make money.

The people who come here tend to be aware of current events, history, and how fragile 'civilization' really is.

That means there are preppers here, and considering the state of the world/nation, that should be no surprise.

I haven't seen any one posting links to their store or posting ads, though.

[Jane Long]

Then why not go ahead and name names to back up your claim? Oh, and links to what they’re selling.

[greeneyes]

My post reference is #15 where the original quote is and then there are several after that.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/05/study-lab-made-h5n1-h1n1-viruses-spread-guinea-pigs

“Chinese scientists report that lab-generated hybrid viruses combining genes from avian H5N1 and pandemic 2009 H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza viruses can achieve airborne spread between guinea pigs, a finding that seems likely to renew the debate about the risks of creating novel viruses that might be able to spark a human pandemic.”

The bottom line is that *nothing* is preventing H5N1 from having a successful genetic swap that makes it prefer the URT. So even now, by several factors, it is a far greater risk than is Ebola.

[Smokin' Joe]

Perhaps. Ebola seems to be rewriting opinion on it daily.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Smokin' Joe]

You’re Welcome, Alamo-Girl!

[caww]

Well there’s no doubt Ebola is certainly creating more than havoc in Africa and I doubt any there think it’s small potatoes......also it can spread to the M.E. weather wise, where we also have troops.

As with the supersitieous people in Africa, who can’t tell the difference between people helping and their fears, so to with M.E. population....

I don’t know any here who are “pre-occupied with it...but I’m sure glad we have those here tracking this.

[Shadowstrike]

Got a friend who lives in New Orleans who said the Coast Guard is fixing to transfer a Ebola patient from a Cargo Ship from the Congo....

Look out for outbreaks in Louisiana

[Smokin' Joe]

Maybe some people are in duck and cover mode.

I can't speak for anyone else.

I, for one would rather be aware of any potentially lethal or otherwise devastating threat and have the knowledge, if not the materials immediately at hand to mitigate that threat. Since most threats come to nothing, consider it a hobby.

If you wait until you see the neighbor's house blow away, it might be a wee bit late to run for the storm cellar--but it is definitely too late to build one. Better to look at the sky when it starts clouding up.

The normalcy bias thing occurs in far more mundane venues. By paying attention to when things around are not normal, you can avoid all sorts of minor and unpleasant situations, too, while others will continue until confronted and be surprised.

Some of us don't like surprises.

[bgill]

ebola thrives in warm, wet climes

The 10 news tonight said this may be the worst year for drought - ever.

[Smokin' Joe]

..ebola thrives in warm, wet climes...

As far as we know, it hasn't had the mobility or opportunity to try elsewhere. It may do worse, equally well, or better among populations in colder climates, but hasn't been there.

I think the reason it has been limited is that the reservoir species are in Africa and do not travel outside of the continent ordinarily, and that previously the outbreaks were in rural areas and died out before they could travel far in humans.

[Cvengr]

So you’ve given yourself about 9 months to prepare.

[greeneyes]

Tell that to the people in Liberia, tell them that H5N1 is what they really need to be concerned about. It's a bigger risk than Ebola is.

Obviously, at the present time, that is not a true statement for these places where the current ebola outbreak has overwhelmed the medical system.

Given the continued travel in and out of the these areas with little restriction, Ebola has the odds on actually being transmitted beyond the current outbreak areas. Unless there is some H5N1 outbreak somewhere that I am not aware of.

Furthermore, the statement that H5N1 is more dangerous than Ebola is actually just an interesting side issue, since the preparation is going to be similar for either one.

So why not add to the discussion by enlightening everyone on what they should get to prepare for each, compare and contrast the supplies, etc. Afterall the prices will be cheaper now than if either becomes an epedimic here.

Arguing which is worse is a total waste of time. Giving advice on how to recognise it, and how to respond to it just helps everyone to have some knowledge that might be useful some day. JMHO.