2) The House is very unlikely to pass amnesty. 2nd ranking senate member, John Cornyn, who is a standard bearer of the establishment has signaled that the House should move away from 'divisive' amnesty for political reasons. Boehner is a RINO, but he won't blow up chances of keeping his cushy job for longer. Despite Paul Ryan's wishes, 2014 will likely be just another year of gridlock with the biggest offenses to conservatives being the increase of our debt over and over.
3)Harry Reid is looking less and less likely to control the senate past the midterms. If every Republican candidate ahead by 4 points or more right now, went on to win, it would be light's out for Democrats. Steve Daines leads by 17 in Montana. Capito leads by more than 14 in West Virginia. Rounds leads by 6 in South Dakota (libertarian spoiler in case you're wondering). Cotton leads by 4 in Arkansas. Cassidy leads by 4 in Louisiana. Brannon leads by 4 in North Carolina.
That's six seats already, not counting the neck and neck race in Michigan, our 3 point deficits in New Hampshire (if Brown runs) and Colorado (if Buck wins the primary). It doesn't include Oregon and Iowa which are relatively competitive, or the Alaska race where the polling isn't very good right now.
It's true, a lot of these candidates are RINOs, some worse than others, but in addition to these races are our own primaries. We have conservative Ben Sasse likely to replace RINO Mike Johanns in Nebraska, and T.W. Shannon as a contender to replace flakey Coburn in Oklahoma, and Linda Graham is very unpopular in South Carolina, definitely beatable if Lee Bright ups his game. Right now, I haven't seen polling from Texas or Tennessee where incumbents are unpopular. The piece de resistance is McDaniel's run against incumbent Cochran in Mississippi. The race is tight. Cochran's fundraising has been poor. Another Lugar off to the sunset retirement home, and McDaniel is rock solid.
5) Democrats won't win Georgia. I was worried about this senates seat before, but the more I see, the more sure I get that Michelle Nunn has no chance of winning once the GOP coalesces. Another conservative pickup opportunity.
6) We have a real shot to take down the senate minority leader before we give the party the majority. A cruel irony for Mitch McConnell who has stabbed us in the back one too many times. Kentuckians have had enough of him, and Matt Bevin's campaign is gaining momentum. We can beat Mitch if we're willing to go all out like we did Dick Lugar.
Imagine a senate even just with Cruz, Scott, Lee, Paul, Brannon, Broun, Bevin, Sasse, Shannon, and McDaniel!
That's a senate with some real conservative muscle in it, backed by the reliable old guard like Sessions and Risch.
With all this in mind, conservatives should not be moping this year. We should be gearing up to give the left a bloody nose, taking control of the entire legislative branch, and pulling the GOP reins right as far as we possibly can.
Onward to victory!
I am having a hard time having your level of optimism. I might find myself inadvertently stepping out into rush hour traffic and getting too close to bridges and construction sites will falling concrete. And inadvertently too close to grizzlies, lions, crocodiles, gators, venomous snakes and other such animals if I decide to go a more rural route.
If the pass amnesty all is lost & I suspect many more GOP voters won’t be showing up. I agree that knocking off a few of these knuckleheads in a primary (Pansy-Lindsay would be wonderful as would Cochran).
Id be interested to see if House leadership doesnt manage to get 218 votes. They just let the crybabies get 20 votes. Some Dems may vote no. Maybe 10 or 20. Then you got leadership and the 26 Republicans who’ve been outed minus Labrador and Poe.
If they do I think it would be funny to see if Berni Sanders, Pryor, Hagan and and some other Dems manage to get 41 votes to block second class amnesty.
There is also going to be a war between ICE, Border Patrol, USCIS, House Judiciary, House leadership, GOP Senate Budget, GOP Senate Judiciary, Rand supporters and Tea Party.
The best way for Rand to split Buchanan, Perot and Ron Paul voters is with amnesty. They’ll vote for Allen West who is more interventionist.
If the GOP passes amnesty, the GOP is finished.
Why do FReepers post a 1-2 sentence commentary in the main Article section, and then have all of the main content in their 1st commentary below. That is just completely annoying.
While I appreciate your optimism, I don’t fully share it.. My prediction is closer to a 3-4 seat pickup for the GOP. For those candidates to hold their leads, we’ll have to see a flawless campaign from all of them. The GOP is maddeningly adept at pulling the dems out if the fire at the least opportune time. All it takes is one to venture off-message and blurt out some hair-grabbing gaffe about rape or some other hot-button issue.
I agree the GOP will hold the House; unless something unforeseen comes to pass, the dems don’t have enough firepower to put Pelosi in the Speaker’s chair again.
If Amnesty is passed in the House, its over for the GOP. They will lose the House and not capture the Senate
Also, its more than just getting GOP elected....we need to remove the RINOs. It does no good to have a GOP controlled House and Senate when they legislate like Democrats. The GOP primaries are more important than the General election....and I am watching which GOP support which candidates....we will find out who the true conservatives are
Your scenario is not out of reach, however, the leftward drift of the GOP, Fox News, and other GOP Media, arent going to allow that to happen
Never, and I mean NEVER, underestimate the stupidity of the Republican Establishment. It is legion.
I’m as sanguine as you. Good analysis. FReepers need to work the House campaigns and get involved in the Senate. If we take those two, Obama’s games grind to a halt.
He and his crew know this. They will use every lever of government against us. Publicize it and satirize them to death. We can and must win.
Unless the GOP completely spikes it (like they did in 1998) they’ll gain seats, that’s how second midterms work. Now will the gain seats with conservatives or just guys with Rs after their names has yet to be seen.