While I appreciate your optimism, I don’t fully share it.. My prediction is closer to a 3-4 seat pickup for the GOP. For those candidates to hold their leads, we’ll have to see a flawless campaign from all of them. The GOP is maddeningly adept at pulling the dems out if the fire at the least opportune time. All it takes is one to venture off-message and blurt out some hair-grabbing gaffe about rape or some other hot-button issue.
I agree the GOP will hold the House; unless something unforeseen comes to pass, the dems don’t have enough firepower to put Pelosi in the Speaker’s chair again.
I look at the candidates and I don’t see any that are likely to implode. They’re all pretty experienced politicians without history of controversial statements. The one I might worry about is Mike Rounds, because he may have some scandal relating to his tenure as governor that I’ve heard rumblings of.
Aside from ‘implosions’, our candidates can lose just because they lack charisma. Rick Berg is a great example, but in that race you had a very good competent Democrat opponent. I’m looking at who the rats are fielding and a lot of these candidates are second tier no-names. The best new candidate the Democrats are running in 2014 is Bruce Braley in Iowa.
A lot of it will be dependent on Obamacare.