Up 400%? You talking about gold? Happy New Year to you as well!
Posted on 01/02/2014 7:00:11 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Gold had a tumultuous run in 2013 but don't expect any respite in the new year, said UBS, which anticipates double-digit percentage losses over the next 12 months.
"For investors who have gold, it's just going to be an awful year again," said Dominic Schnider, head of non-traditional asset classes at UBS Wealth Management, who sees the precious metal falling to $1,050 an ounce this year, 13 percent below current levels.
"People have been talking about [the Federal Reserve's] taper, but I would really think about rate hikes. If you make a 12-month forecast you need to look into 2015 and rate hikes are on the cards," he said. A rising interest rate environment typically makes owning gold more expensive as it is not an income-producing asset.
With the global economic growth and inflation mix looking promising in 2014, the risk-reward balance is now skewed toward risky assets, Schnider added.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
Question for these econ geniuses: How high does it have to go before the debt becomes unsustainable?
certainly makes sense that gold will fall when the fed keeps pumping trillions into the economy. (at least, that’s what they try to tell us on cnbc).
.............
gold will fall because the USA is pumping a million barrels @ day more this year than last. This has been happening for the last three years. It will continue to happen for at least the next three years.
the USA is on the way to being an oil exporter. Oil exporters don’t have weak currencies. a strong dollar means weak gold.
How do you figure that?
Goldbug ping.
as the dollar deflates, things valued in dollars increase, including stocks. if stocks are increasing faster the gold, people slide from gold into stocks. this is how it goes with a fiat currency.
and yes, i mentioned that the only situation where the dollar is ‘stronger’ is where it’s less weak then the other currencies. this does not mean its stronger... just the highest point on the sinking ship
>>>It’s not the value of the gold which is changing.>>How do you figure that?
Gold historically maintains a very steady value.
The currencies that its traded in are far more volatile.
Therefore, it’s a reflection (foretelling trend) of what is happening to the dollar.
So NBC says that gold prices will drop this year? That must mean that gold will zoom up.
The dollar buys more than 50% more gold than it did just a bit more than 2 years ago.
The currencies that its traded in are far more volatile.
Can you show me a dollar chart and a gold chart that proves your claim?
Hello Todd. I am still up over 400% since 2004. Do tell what you know?
Are your stocks up 400%?
That is awesome! You're still down 35% over the last 2 years.
Very True. I’ll take it.
Happy New Year.
Up 400%? You talking about gold? Happy New Year to you as well!
I missed it by a year. 322 was the lowest I paid and 345 was the highest.
We will not see those prices for some time again.
Gold is $1230.
I am still up over 400% since 2004.
$1230 from $322 is a 282% increase.
I think it is 381.
Your math is weak, grasshopper.
>>> Can you show me a dollar chart and a gold chart that proves your claim?
lol... no... thats why they call it speculation.
Gold’s bubble is bursting... that’s all
They’ve been overselling it for a long time now, and reality is going to set in before the rug gets jerked out from underneath us by the likes of Soros.
Your claim was ridiculous.
If gold falls it will be for one of two possible reasons:
1. Manipulation by the ruling class (not just in this country).
2. Things get so bad and UNSTABLE (key word here) that gold, silver, and many other things for that matter loose their value.
Right now most mining companies that produce Gold and Silver exclusively (ie. they are not a by-product of other mining such as copper) are at break even or are in the red (loosing money). Production costs have skyrocketed and continue to do so. Its as bad if not worse for these companies as it was when gold was $255 and silver at around $4 in the late 90’s. It’s not hard to figure what is going to happen to the price in this kind of climate, though it may not rise to much this year (all depends on what happens).
Then we can look at the massive buying around the world as the price has dropped. Russia, China, India(which has done a lot to curtail imports but the smuggling is increasing as well and in the mean time China has picked up the slack), the middle east. Lets just say the economic picture out there isn’t all that rosy. High inflation in those areas is rampant, Chinese are buying up everything they can here in the U.S. (this is not like Japan and its good times, the smart money can see the writing on the wall back home and its not good). The U.S. exported more Gold this year than it has mined, there are a number of reports and article stating that some if not all the vaults in Europe are a bit lean when it comes to storage of gold. When you have these kind of situations at play the Dollar rising and falling has little to do with the price at this point as has been the case over the last 12 years with the price of gold rising sometimes with a falling dollar, rising dollar, stable dollar, as well as falling in price at times when the dollar was weaker, stronger, and yes stable.
Then we can get into the statistically unlikely hoods of the price of gold doing a water fall in 5-30 minutes on no news, bullish news for Gold in general, capping action prior to the FOMC meetings, around options expiration days (some of it heard mentality and similar trading psychogy as well or traders taking advantage of the manipulation), we can also talk about daily caps on the price of Gold at almost exactly at 1% and 2% moves to the upside on many of the up-days which rather defies logic and reason if you believe that this is a free market. We can talk about large selling orders in the after market between the Commex close and opening trading in Asia. Since this is the thinnest volume of the 24 hour period, small orders can move the market quicker and in larger numbers. So if your objective is to get the best price for what your selling, then you would try to avoid those kind of conditions since it will work against you.
We can also talk about the manipulation of LIBOR, the FOREX market (which came to light this year), and the Mortgage market where many governments have turned a blind eye to for many years. One does have to wonder why. If it can be done here and they are far bigger markets than anything gold or silver can be, then why gold and silver cannot be manipulated?
The shale oil play helps to lower costs and make us more attractive for companies to move some of the manufacturing options back here, but they have been looking at this for a while mainly because rising material and labor costs have made it less desirable to continue to do business as it has been done. Cheaper energy has just helped pushed it along at a faster rate. If anything that means a more robust economy and more buying of everything including gold.
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