Validity of “A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years”

Watts Up With That? ^ | March 11, 2013 | Guest post by Dr. Don J. Easterbrook

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

It seems that Marcott et al isn’t all that it is cracked up to be. Dr. Easterbrook takes a good hard look at the paper.

Guest post by Dr. Don J. Easterbrook

(Note: Because of the far-reaching implications of the conclusions in this paper and the nature of the data, this review will be broken into several segments. This is Part I).

The news media has exploded with extraordinary claims of ‘unprecedented global warming’ asserted in a paper “A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years” by Marcott, Shakun, Clark, and Mix in Science. A NY Times headline reads “Global Temperatures Highest in 4,000 Years,” and proclaims that global warming will “surpass levels not seen on the planet since before the last ice age.”

Here are some of the truly extraordinary assertions in the paper:

1. “Current global temperatures of the past decade … are warmer than during ~75% of the Holocene temperature history.”

2. “Global mean temperature for the decade 2000–2009 …. are, however, warmer than 82% of the Holocene”

3. ~0.6°Cof warming from the early Holocene (11,300 yr B.P.) to a temperature plateau extending from 9500 to 5500 yr B.P.. This warm interval is followed by a long-term 0.7°C cooling from 5500 to~100 yr B.P. (Fig. 1B).

4. Early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 years ago) warmth is followed by ~0.7°C cooling through the middle to late Holocene (<5000 years ago), culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago.

5. “Global temperatures are warmer than at any time in at least 4,000 years.”

6. “Over the coming decades are likely to surpass levels not seen on the planet since before the last ice age.”

7. “Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time.”

[JWinNC]

I can guarantee that every day in the present is hotter than days in the past. Except for the ones that are not.

[Buckeye McFrog]

The past 2 days have been rather warm here.

However, our morning weather guy pointed out that the record highs for both dates were set in 1878 and 1885 respectively, and we did not even come close (both were over 80).

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Also see this posted earlier:

Era of the Pharaohs: Climate was HOTTER THAN NOW, without CO2

[ctdonath2]

How convenient a range they picked.
I took it back almost a half million years: http://ctdonath.blogspot.com/2012/02/global-climate-change-in-context.html
Seems obvious we’re at a natural cyclical high point, and facing an imminent rapid long term decline in temperatures.

[Sacajaweau]

Global temperatures are insufficient and based on "means".

Universal temperatures are necessary for any point of judgement and even then, turning them into projections is absurd.

[Wurlitzer]

Tell me if you want the earth to be cooling or warming and I’ll pick the appropriate time frame to PROVE to the SRM (state run media) either one.

Then tell me to correlate CO2 to cooling or warming and again I’ll pick the appropriate window in time to prove either one.

Figures don’t lie if liars don’t figure.

What passes for science these days would not even make it on the Friday night Svengoolie SyFi/Horror show.