Could a Comet Hit Mars in 2014?

discovery.com ^ | Feb 25, 2013 01:12 PM ET // | by Ian O'Neill

[BenLurkin]

A recently discovered comet will make an uncomfortably-close planetary flyby next year — but this time it’s not Earth that’s in the cosmic crosshairs.

According to preliminary orbital prediction models, comet C/2013 A1 will buzz Mars on Oct. 19, 2014.

According to calculations by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), close approach data suggests the comet is most likely to make a close pass of 0.0007 AU (that’s approximately 63,000 miles from the Martian surface). However, there’s one huge caveat.

Due to uncertainties in the observations — the comet has only been observed for 74 days (so far), so it’s difficult for astronomers to forecast the comet’s precise location in 20 months time — comet C/2013 A1 may fly past at a very safe distance of 0.008 AU (650,000 miles). But to the other extreme, its orbital pass could put Mars directly in its path. At time of Mars close approach (or impact), the comet will be barreling along at a breakneck speed of 35 miles per second

[P.O.E.]

Thanks

[Errant]

Yes he can! Kershaw was actually raised on the bayou in Cameron parish.

One of his first hits, 'Louisiana Man', pretty much describes his early childhood.

[winoneforthegipper]

Is not ISON just a melt away from being nothing? No mass really to it at all?

[Errant]

I’ve seen estimates of 1 to 10km. Nothing official...

[Errant]

Just saw a post on ATS of a tweat attributed to Nick Howes of the Remanzacco Observatory stating that ISON's nucleus has been estimated to be approximately 20 km across.

That puts it well above average and should mean it will put on a great show this fall, if true.

[RegulatorCountry]

Here’s the last performance from that old PBS special, called “Fiddlers Three” with Jean Luc Ponty, Itzhak Perlman and Doug Kershaw joining for the finale:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3bF0vsGQOw

[winoneforthegipper]

Yeah but it’s a virgin comet...

It’s just as likely to be a vapor trail of 100k miles and nothing else....as it passes near thanks to a few sunny rays..lol

[Errant]

Most of the fluffy stuff was removed when the sun went nuclear and from eons of solar wind. It'll be an amazing show if the nucleus is 20km in size, as the nucleus will contain 8,000 times the volume of a 1km comet.

And despite what officials are saying, if a breakup occurs at ISON's perihelion, it will be an even more amazing show, as surviving debris streams past the earth at 250,000 mph!

Hopefully at a safe 30 million km distance or more, since even the possibility of a really energetic breakup altering debris trajectories closer to the earth is slim, according to these same officials. lol

[Errant]

Amazing path of C/2013 A1:

You have to have Java enabled to view the NASA interactive viewer at: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=c%2F2013%20a1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb

Screen shot below:

[winoneforthegipper]

Ahh got ya....thanks.

Yeah you are right either way I think the show should be spectacular...!