1. http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/10/if-nate-silver-cannot-be-wrong-how-can-he-be-right/
2. Talk to LS
3. talk to Software Engineer
...first forget about Silver, only hard core nut cases believe half of what he’s saying....the other two will play themselves out during Nov 6th, I believe in our favor...
I was gonna start a Pessimist’s Club, but I figured it would never get off the ground.
about Nate Silver,
I was thinking the exact same thing about Dick Morris....the guy has put all his political stock on the line.
Maybe Silver is being fed fake numbers from O’s campaign, knowing full well Silver would take those numbers and do what he’s doing.
4. Vote fraud.
Barone and Rove said Romney will win.
Nate Silver’s track record - 1 presidential election - 2008. Big Deal. Gallup’s record is several decades, Univ of Colorado - 30 years.
No matter how HORRIFYINGLY PAINFULLY TRAGICALLY AWFUL it looks, it is a MILLION times worse. Then things get *really* tough. After that, HORRIBLE things happen, and then we REALLY get screwed. Immediately following that, the BOTTOM drops out and we are all DEAD, and THEN things get HARD! Once that happens, it signifies the TOTAL collapse of EVERYTHING, and that’s when the CATASTROPHE starts! It’s the sign of the end of EVERYTHING, but after that, comes the TRAGEDY. Then times get DIFFICULT, and things get WORSE, until it’s EXCRUCIATING, but that’s just the beginning, because after that it’s all PAIN.
None of these pundits, including Silver, are putting anything “on the line.” You see the same pundits re-appear, cycle after cycle, regardless of how their predictions come out.
Much like losing baseball managers.
Silver has an easy out - he’s allowing the possibility that Romney will win, just says the odds are against it. If Obama wins, there is no way to “prove” that Silver’s odds were unrealistically high.
Anyone who cares about Intrade, just remember that Kerry was at 90% on election day 2004.
This is easy.
1) Silver bases his interesting and by and large worthwhile model on state polls. However, no matter how good the model, it rests entirely on the inputted state data, which is flawed. They are almost all using a overly rosy pro-Dem weight. This was covered very well in a post on Red State yesterday. While I highly respect him (I have a stats PhD from Georgia Tech and 3 majors at Berkeley), I firmly believe he will be wrong here. He has stated himself, that if his state data is wrong or biased, he will lose - covering himself for defeat tuesday. I think he knows it but he is in a corner now. Cant change the model this late.
2) Ohio is simply a tossup. Romney will not win by 3 or 4 points, so dont expect it. It is close. Simple as that. 50/50. Anyone who says otherwise is a partisan.
3) Where do you think InTrade people get their decisions? Yes, from Nate Silver, and Sam Wang, and polltracker...who all have flawed models. Also, the herd mentality. Favorites ALWAYS get more play. I sports betted for decades successfully, and made my money off underdogs because I knew the public loves favs. InTrade means nothing. The fact that it remains far under 79% that Silver predicts indicates that there are some big buyers on Romney keeping the number down. Always follow the big money, not the majority of bettors.
My money is on Romney by 2-2.5 points nationally, and a close but effective EV win. This will NOT be a landslide, sorry partisans, but it will be a win.
(2) As an extension of the previous point, you should not expect the state level polls to break heavily toward Romney except at the end when pollsters look to likely voter responses instead of their models. Ohio polling now seem to show Romney pulling ahead.
(3) Intrade is too thinly traded to be reliable except at the end when enough knowledgeable insiders take the plunge to overwhelm the true believers.
And Eeyores everywhere should keep in mind that Reagan's victory in 1980 was almost entirely unforeseen by the public polls. Notably, at the end, the pollsters for Reagan and Carter both saw the result coming. As professionals, they briefed their candidates and otherwise kept their mouths shut.
So take a look at Romney and Obama. Romney seems upbeat and confident, while Obama seems harsh and off his game. He he been warned what is likely coming his way: defeat, with many Democrats falling as well and blaming him.
1. If Silver gave Romney a chance, he’s never eat lunch on the coasts again. He knows the libs are looking to him for reinforcement. Trust Barrone over him. Barrone no one knows voting histrory better than anyone.
2. This is a legit worry. I would like to see at least more of a see-saw battle in OH.
3. Intrade is worthless.
Nate Silver, like all other Joun-O-Listers, will do whatever he has to do, and sacrifice whatever credibility he must, because he is in a dying industry.
Newsweek was the tip of the iceberg. Starting next year you are going to see dead tree news organizations laying-off and dropping like flies. Unless, that is, they get some form of government bailout, law forcing you to pay for web news content, or some other government prop under their sagging finances.
Hence they are totally in the tank for Barry. Without Hope and Change 2.0 there is no tomorrow for them.
The best way to allay concerns is to get out and volunteer for the campaign.
Even if Freepers aren’t in a ‘swing state,’ they can sign up to make calls from their cell phones to GOP voters in swing states:
http://www.mittromney.com/call-home-landing
2. Polls are breaking in OH for Romney: last three were tie, R+2, R+2.
3. Intrade had the USSC overturning Obamacare at a 90:10 ratio.
#2 is real. I am on the ground in Warren county, and I am telling you there is nowhere near the voter enthusiasm for the GOP there was in 2004 and 2008. Those who say unprecedented enthusiasm is everywhere are smoking crack. Average joes are not impressed with either of these guys. And Ryan does not have anywhere the reach and charisma of Palin to get to the working class voter.
Now there is also nowhere near the enthusiasm for Obama either, and GOP voters are more habitual voters, Romney might be OK.
But polls are polls, and the lesson is that they are not often wrong. Sometimes yes, but not often. And the polls are telling us that Romney will underperform the national average in OH.
So prepare yourself for four more years of Obama, a solidly GOP house and a split almost down the middle senate.
Nine out of ten people called by pollsters are refusing to respond.
Among the ten percent who do respond to pollster questions, Romney is now leading slightly, and comfortably enough not to worry about the vote fraud overcoming his lead.
Among the ninety percent who refuse to respond to pollster questions, 97.53% of them are tack-spitting outraged at Obama, Pelosi, Reid, the MSM, and every mind-numbingly stupid person who ever voted for any of this idiocy, such that the election day results will be a coast-to-coast Republican sweep that will dwarf 2010 and 1994.
Romney is going to win by twenty gazillion in the popular vote, and will take 117% of the electoral vote.
Ohio is a real concern. It looks like it might be breaking the wrong way. I have cousins up there and from what I am hearing the local press is busy telling everyone that their jobs are not going to China. Why Romney thought he could scare people to the polls ~10 days out I will never know. If you are going to pull something like that you need to do it in the last weekend. He was a week early.
VOTE FIRST !