None of these pundits, including Silver, are putting anything “on the line.” You see the same pundits re-appear, cycle after cycle, regardless of how their predictions come out.
Much like losing baseball managers.
Silver has an easy out - he’s allowing the possibility that Romney will win, just says the odds are against it. If Obama wins, there is no way to “prove” that Silver’s odds were unrealistically high.
Anyone who cares about Intrade, just remember that Kerry was at 90% on election day 2004.
Silver put a $1000 on the line, but that’s probably pcket-change for him.