Go look at the polls, even the Rasmussan polls. Romney's behind in Ohio, Virginia and Florida. Those are must win states, particularly Florida.
The polls, when averaged, have a very good track record. Google it and you can find a PhD mathematician who did a paper on the topic. They were off by 1.3% in favor of Obama last time. (Rasmussan and Pew were the best, virtually right on). That's in the time right before the election.
So, sure, stuff can change between now and November, but there is no way that Team Obama thinks they are going to lose. And, quite a few people on Team Romney understand it's a very uphill fight for him to beat Obama.
Go look at the Frontpage News sidebar. Rasmussen has Romney 48, Obama 46.
Disagree completely. Now, in addition to “It’s the economy stupid” we have his middle east foreign policy being shredded. He is toast.
In trade seems to agree with you
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
Wow...you found one PhD on Google that says Obama will win?
That seals it then!
Dude! To quote Kevin you are a lost cause.
Seriously? Even thevRasvpolls have Romnsy up in BA and FL and latest ARG has him up 3in OH with a Dem OVERSAMPLED. Fact is, this is the most honest storyI’ve seen. When you correctly adjust polls for 2010 splits, Romney is up by 5. Why they persist in jimmying the polls is obvious: Zero is indeed behind.
It is always an uphill fight to defeat an incumbent in any office. What is helping the radical socialist from Chicago is the millions more dependents on government checks he has created. 48 million on food stamps, millions on unemployment for 99 weeks, millions on disability, millions of NON-citzen legal residents on social security supplemental benefits (I have older relatives who never worked a day in US are collecting those against my wishes but I can hardly blame them because it is a legal benefit), rent subsidies, heat subsidies, free breakfast & lunch in schools, free condoms and birth control pills, free medical services with translators provided if can’t speak English, aid to dependent children, free MEDICAID benefits, and on and on and on.
When people figure out they can vote for candidates who will give them free benefits, then it is beginning of end for the republic.
In what world? I'm not voting for Mitt, or any other liberal, but it looks like he's got the election in the bag, unless he fornicates with a dead goat on Good Morning America.
/johnny
Um, the Ohio Ras poll has obie +1Lord with a D+10 sample. Heard od internals? They’re all like that. But Ras shows the real skew is R+3. That means the polls are skewed obie +12 or so.
Those are the facts.
Um, the Ohio Ras poll has obie +1 with a D+10 sample. Heard of internals? They’re all like that. But Ras shows the real skew is R+3. That means the polls are skewed obie +12 or so.
Those are the facts.
Face the reality, Obama is simply “one and done”. Just like Jimmy Carter, the Middle Eastern tinder box and a very weak economy is going to be his downfall. Get ready to say “President-Elect Romney”.
It’s an uphill fight and Romney has got to get more aggressive and distinguish himself. The press is burying him; they’re doing what they do with anything they don’t like, such as anti-abortion demonstrations or Tea Party events (one million people never showed up in DC for either event...but in reality, they did), and ignoring him.
I don’t like Romney and I’m sorry he’s our candidate, because he is weak and liberal and his only conservative streak seems to concern his personal fortune. But he is the candidate, like it or not.
After he picked Ryan I felt better about him, and now no matter what I’m going to vote for him and work for him because I think another term of Obama will take us to a collectivist/Islamic dictatorship.
But he’s got to get out there and convince people he’s different from Obama and offers a choice. He’s not doing that and he’s letting the press intimidate him.
Nate Silver? Who said in 2010 that he thought the Dems would hold the House? LOL!
Averaging different polls is about as unreliable as it gets.
Rasmussen has Romney up and was the most accurate poll in ‘08.
What were the polls saying in September 1980?
I can see your Obama bounce. At the end of a ....