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Posted on 08/15/2012 10:01:59 PM PDT by RC one
Josh Mandel is one of “The Power Line Pick Six” that you see featured on the right side of our home page. His selection was a no-brainer; he and Tom Cotton were the first two candidates we informally agreed on.
Josh is a Marine Corps veteran who served two tours in Iraq and then as a State Representative. Currently, he’s the State Treasurer.
Josh faces incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown, one of the very most liberal members of the Senate. Early polling showed Brown with close to a double digit lead. And yesterday, PPP released a poll that had Brown ahead by 47-37.
However, a new Rasmussen poll has the race dead-even at 44-44. We tend to put more stock in Rasmussen than in PPP, but I pay attention to both. Then too, it’s quite possible that the Rasmussen poll, conducted on August 13, reflects a Ryan-based bounce that the PPP survery, which commenced before Ryan’s selection, did not pick up.
Whether or not Mandel is actually tied with Brown, the Rasmussen poll shows that he is very much in the race, with the momentum, for now, on his side.
To support one of the Republican Party’s biggest rising stars, and to help defeat one of the Dems’ most reliably leftist mainstays, you can contribute here.
In Missouri, RCP has Todd Akin beating senator Claire McCaskill by 11 points too for net gain of 1 seat.
In Virginia, Rasmussen has democrat Tim Kaine, the Democrat picked to replace retiring Jim Webb, tied with Republican challenger George Allen, the Senator defeated by Webb in 2006. Seems like this is a good place for us to fight. It seems like we should bend over backwards to bring Virginia back into the fold actually.
In Wisconsin, in an August 5th poll, Tommy Thomson, who won the Republican nomination on August 14, 2012 after a bitter four-way primary battle is five points ahead of democrat Tammy Baldwin who is picked to replace retiring Senator Herb Kohl. Given these poll results and the 2010 surprise upset in Wisconsin when ultra liberal democrat, Russ Feingold was defeated by Ron Johnson, and the recent Gubernatorial recall election results, it seems like this would be a real real good place to fight for a senate seat-net gain 1.
No reliable polls for the Montana race since June. Given the manner in which Jon Tester won in 2006, it seems very plausible that Republican Denny Rehberg will reclaim this senate seat from the Democrats. Hard to say but I say probably net gain of 1.
In North Dakota, Republican, Rick Berg is statistically tied with Democrat Heidi Heitkamp who seeks to retain this Democratic senate seat being vacated by retiring senator Kent Conrad (D).
In Indiana, an August 1st poll has tea party candidate Richard Mourdock 2 points ahead of Democratic challenger, Joe Donnely in the Indiana senate race. Mourdock defeated Richard Lugar in the Indiana primaries, 400,321 votes to 261,285. Losing to Donnely will be bad - real bad.
In Massachusetts, 6 polls average out to a tie between Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown who sent a shock wave through the democratic party when he took Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in a special election.
in Maine, the Republican seat held by retiring senator Olympia Snowe is now being fought over by Maine Secretary of State Charles Summers (R) and Maine State Senator, Cynthia Dill(D). Complicating this race is Maine Governor Angus King who is running as an Independent and currently polling well ahead of Summers and WAAAY ahead of Dill. The good news about this is that King was beating Summers by 28 points back in July but an August 6th poll of 500 likely voters in Maine by Moore Consulting has him beating summers by 18 points which is good but obviously not good enough. the same poll has Obama beating romney 52%-37%. king will likely caucus with demcocrats and create another Joe Lieberman situation. Maine is not looking so good. Anticipate the Dems picking up a seat in Maine.
Speaking of the Independent Joe Lieberman...Linda McMahon(R) is hoping to claim a seat for the Republicans by defeating Chris Murphy(D). A July 8th PPP poll has Murphy up by 8 points over McMahon. Murphy has soundly beaten in McMahon in every poll found at RCP between the two. Connecticut is going to the Dems. Because Lieberman caucused with the Dems, it isn't a net gain.
In Hawaii, Linda Lingle attempts to pick up a seat for the Republicans by defeating Democratic Mazie Hirono who is hoping to hold on to retiring Democrat, Daniel Akkaka's seat. Hirono is the clear favorite according to multiple polls and we should anticipate the Dems holding this seat for a net gain of zero.
In Florida, incumbent Democratic senator Bill Nelson is most recently looking good against Republican challenger, Connie Mack IV (R), although, RCP does have Mack up by o.2 points overall so this race looks very competitive.. We should, as usual, fight hard for Florida. It definitely looks to be within our grasp.
In Nebraska, the seat held by retiring democratic senator Ben Nelson is being fought over by Bob Kerrehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Kerrey(D) and Deb Fischer(R). Kerrey appears...highly accomplished and probably not some one to be underestimated. That being said, it looks like Nebraska is going to go to the Republicans this year for a net gain of 1.
In new Mexico, the seat held by retiring Democrat, Jeff Bingaman, is being fought over by Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Heather Wilson. RCP strongly suggests that The Democrats will hold New Mexico for a net gain of zero.
I've been at this for a while. If anybody has anything to add, it would be appreciated.
Ohio looks like a possible pick up, and its a long shot but Michigan and New Jersey could fall if it is a wave election.
Sherrod Brown is a serious POS.
we need 4 seats, 6 if you accept that we’re going to lose Maine and Massachusetts. Ohio is looking better every week. Nebraska is looking good. Virginia looks good. Montana looks real good IMO. then there’s Florida for 5. then there’s Wisconsin for 6. Missouri looks real good. that’s #7. North Dakota could be 8 but given their excellent economic situation, they might not be inclined to switch. We need something to convince them to. I’m really not sure about Michigan and NJ. they seem pretty safe. Menendez was up 12 points on August 2nd in NJ and Stabenow consistently beats Hoekstra in Michigan. Neither are net losses for us though.
Mandel is seriously closing in on him. He definitely has the momentum in his favor. Hopefully we can all go a few months without any egregious errors that could cost us election day. So far so good.
GOOD!
I know the polls in Hawaii don’t look good, but the R there has won two statewide elections. You’re right about Michigan, but the trend there is good. I believe Brown will beat Fauxcahontas is Mass. and that we will win ND. We currently have 47 and will lose Maine. My optimistic bet right now is that we end up with 55.
That would be sweet. No matter how you look at it, there is cause for optimism, unless you’re a Democrat of course. I think Brown can take Massachusetts too but I’m not going to count it as a net gain just yet. Hawaii seems like it will be a tough nut to crack.
Not to sound naive...if the Repubican senatorial candidates pull ahead of their Dem opponents in Wisconsin and Ohio, doesn’t that mean Romney is likely to win in those states? Do people split tickets much these days?
“In Massachusetts, 6 polls average out to a tie between Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown who sent a shock wave through the democratic party when he took Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat in a special election.”
I’m finding myself wondering the bleep is wrong with voters in Massachusetts. I get that it’s a deep blue state, but come on, how could any sane person opt for loon like Warren over Scott Brown? Yeesh!
Very good analysis, btw. Thanks for posting it!
I was driving through Massachusetts last summer and was really surprised to pick up a Boston radio station that was airing a couple of extremely conservative personalities. Apparently they have their own show on Boston local radio. They sounded like freepers. It was surprising and suggestive. I was under the impression that conservatism was illegal in Massachusetts. Apparently it isn’t.
Many Liberal areas of the country have great Conservative talk shows.
San Francisco has Michael Savage & the Sussman/Morgan shows.
Portland Oregon has Lars Larson
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