we need 4 seats, 6 if you accept that we’re going to lose Maine and Massachusetts. Ohio is looking better every week. Nebraska is looking good. Virginia looks good. Montana looks real good IMO. then there’s Florida for 5. then there’s Wisconsin for 6. Missouri looks real good. that’s #7. North Dakota could be 8 but given their excellent economic situation, they might not be inclined to switch. We need something to convince them to. I’m really not sure about Michigan and NJ. they seem pretty safe. Menendez was up 12 points on August 2nd in NJ and Stabenow consistently beats Hoekstra in Michigan. Neither are net losses for us though.
I know the polls in Hawaii don’t look good, but the R there has won two statewide elections. You’re right about Michigan, but the trend there is good. I believe Brown will beat Fauxcahontas is Mass. and that we will win ND. We currently have 47 and will lose Maine. My optimistic bet right now is that we end up with 55.