Something to think about here is that the GOP ran through this past primary season with the most marginal, half-@ssed group of presidential candidates in recent memory. I mean, how could Rick Santorum be a credible candidate when he wouldn't even carry his own state in a general election? And Newt Gingrich? That jack@ss wasn't even in politics for more than a decade before crawling out from under a rock somewhere to dress up as a "Republican Presidential Candidate" for an early Halloween season. These guys all stayed in the race as long as they could because they knew damn well that even a bag of dog crap would stand a pretty decent chance of winning against Obama in November.
Agreed. We don’t need to shoot Rove. His analysis at this moment is likely very accurate.
But the country hasn’t engaged nor gotten to know Romney and Ryan.
Dukakis held a 17 point lead over Bush Sr. after the D convention in August of 1988.
Support for a specific candidate by an independent voter at this moment can be a mile wide but an inch deep. The polls will bounce. I think Romney will hold a lead in some national polls by next week based on Ryan enthusiasm.
You forget to mention Romney, possibly the least electable candidate in the primary, and one who’s been proving it consistently for the last several weeks. He’s also someone who couldn’t get elected in Massachusetts as a Senator or in a 2nd term as governor. Santorum or Gingrich would have been polling a lot better than Romney this summer, that’s for sure, since they know how to form a conservative message and communicate it.
I also believe Obama is currently ahead and still likely to win, but it’s closer as of the Ryan pick thanks to the excitement from the base and the fact that Ryan might be able to create a better pitch for Romney.
Conditions simply haven’t changed that much since Obama won the first time. People believe the Republicans caused the economic meltdown because it happened while Bush was in office. If the case can be made that Democrats blocked reforms of Fannie/Freddie that Republicans wanted which would have stopped the crisis, that case certainly hasn’t been made successfully to the average voter yet.
Romney’s message has been that the economy is getting better, but not fast enough. That’s immediately conceding that the economy is getting better under Obama. How is that a winning message?
The only way to win this election is to fight the battle of socialism vs. capitalism. The public needs to learn that socialism will turn us into a third world country in the long run and lower the standard of living and quality of life for everybody. Obama is selling everybody a bunch of free goodies in the short-term. Unless the long-term disaster that results from that is explained to people, they’re going to go with Obama. Why turn down the short-term pleasure if nobody’s even telling you about the long-term pain?
On the ground in Pennsylvania, I don’t see much difference in how people are going to vote from the last time. The commmitted leftists are still as committed to Obama as ever, if not moreso. Since the wars are off the front pages, they’ve forgotten about them and are just swooning over Obama’s domestic agenda. The conservatives are still against him, but they’re discouraged at the prospects of beating him. The independents who were scared of Obama aren’t sold on him, but they’re less scared than they were before, either because they’re used to the “new normal” in the economy or are at least satisfied that things aren’t getting worse. And the independents who blamed the Republicans for the economic downturn still blame the Republicans.
Obama will probably win the election unless conservative ideology is explained completely and thoroughly to the American public. Since a conservative like Gingrich or Santorum didn’t win the primary, Ryan is just about our only chance to get that message out. It’s a slim chance.
So, Emperor Nero Kardashian Narcissus won with 53% of the vote last time. Can anybody possibly fathom that 3% of the population of the US has not changed their mind? Does anybody believe that the intensity to vote for Obummer has not waned dramatically. Does anybody believe that Republican enthusiasm is up because of Obama, regardless of the fact that we are stuck with Romney, but at least got Ryan? The tea party did not exist in 2008, they had a taste of victory in 2010 (though dampered by some fake candidates, and still grossly outnumbered by RINOs, but 2012 can tip the scales a little further from the RINOs.
So basically, does the sum of people turning on Obummer, plus the insane hype gone reducing democratic turnout plus the horrific economy and non scandals plus the republicans recovering from Bush fatigue and McCain dissappointment, not add up to a measely 3%?
Remember there are many Obama voters who will vote for Romney (those are like a plus 2). There are many Obama voters who will not be excited to vote (+1). There are many Romney voters who will not sit this election out this time (+1). I would be willing to wager that less than 1% of McCain voters will vote for Obama this time.
I suggest it is mathematically impossible for Obummer to get near the number of votes he got last time. I will be willing to bet that he gets fewer votes than McCain got last time. So the question is will Romney get more votes than McCain got last time. Precluding mass apathy, which I doubt will happen after this last 4 years, I think with the addition of Ryan, that Romney easily gets more votes than McCain got last time.