You forget to mention Romney, possibly the least electable candidate in the primary, and one who’s been proving it consistently for the last several weeks. He’s also someone who couldn’t get elected in Massachusetts as a Senator or in a 2nd term as governor. Santorum or Gingrich would have been polling a lot better than Romney this summer, that’s for sure, since they know how to form a conservative message and communicate it.
I also believe Obama is currently ahead and still likely to win, but it’s closer as of the Ryan pick thanks to the excitement from the base and the fact that Ryan might be able to create a better pitch for Romney.
Conditions simply haven’t changed that much since Obama won the first time. People believe the Republicans caused the economic meltdown because it happened while Bush was in office. If the case can be made that Democrats blocked reforms of Fannie/Freddie that Republicans wanted which would have stopped the crisis, that case certainly hasn’t been made successfully to the average voter yet.
Romney’s message has been that the economy is getting better, but not fast enough. That’s immediately conceding that the economy is getting better under Obama. How is that a winning message?
The only way to win this election is to fight the battle of socialism vs. capitalism. The public needs to learn that socialism will turn us into a third world country in the long run and lower the standard of living and quality of life for everybody. Obama is selling everybody a bunch of free goodies in the short-term. Unless the long-term disaster that results from that is explained to people, they’re going to go with Obama. Why turn down the short-term pleasure if nobody’s even telling you about the long-term pain?
On the ground in Pennsylvania, I don’t see much difference in how people are going to vote from the last time. The commmitted leftists are still as committed to Obama as ever, if not moreso. Since the wars are off the front pages, they’ve forgotten about them and are just swooning over Obama’s domestic agenda. The conservatives are still against him, but they’re discouraged at the prospects of beating him. The independents who were scared of Obama aren’t sold on him, but they’re less scared than they were before, either because they’re used to the “new normal” in the economy or are at least satisfied that things aren’t getting worse. And the independents who blamed the Republicans for the economic downturn still blame the Republicans.
Obama will probably win the election unless conservative ideology is explained completely and thoroughly to the American public. Since a conservative like Gingrich or Santorum didn’t win the primary, Ryan is just about our only chance to get that message out. It’s a slim chance.
The Ryan pick is interesting in light of Rove’s analysis.
Starting with Rove’s map, assume that FL, SC, NC, VA go to Romney, not too hard to believe, Romney is now at 248 Assume that VA, NH, CO, and IA go to Obama. Obama is at 290. Wisconsin and Ohio, two states that most of the (probably bogus) polls, as well as history, show to be in Obama’s column now. Ryan is supposed to help with both. That 28 would swing the election. It was the two states Romney was after.
I concur Newt would have been a better candidate. So sad he did not get more votes than Romney. Or had the personal fortune to excoriate opponents.
But I will never give up the fight to defeat the radical socialist Muslim from Chicago.