(VANITY) Updates on Delegate Count and Newt's chance

Mar. 21st, 2012 | God-fear-republican

[God-fear-republican]

According to NY Times, the total bound delegates, who must vote for their candidates at the first round at the Republican National Convention, is 1606 or 70% of total 2288 delegates available.

Romney so far gets 449, Santorum 185, Newt 138, and Paul 35 according to Real Clear Politics. Total of bound delegates so far is 449+185+138+35 = 807. The total of bound delegates remain is 1606-807= 799 delegates. And Romney needs 1144 – 449 = 695 bound delegates more or 695/799 = 87%!!! Impossible unless all TX delegates go to him!

If we throw all 120 super-delegates (Party leaders) for Romney, he still needs to win 575/799= 72% remaining delegates!

That is why you see the following headline from ABC News:

To Win the Nomination, Romney May Need Help From Superdelegates

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/to-win-the-nomination-romney-may-need-help-from-superdelegates/

[Diogenesis]

Romney is a cheat who was exposed telling voters
to vote multiple times for him — without accountability.

[EagleInGA]

What works in Romney's favor is that a number of upcoming primaries are winner-take-all. That makes his task a bit easier, assuming he wins most of the high delegate states like CA, NJ and NY.

Don't get me wrong, I can't stand Romney. The fact that the GOP is pushing this clown has me questioning why I am a registered Republican. But that aside, I think it is highly unlikely that Romney loses the nomination. Just my 2-cents.

[Jerrybob]

Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney.

Anyone see a pattern here????

[samtheman]

Newt should stay in just because he’s the best man for the job, regardless of delegate calculus.

[Vigilanteman]

Delegate math at this moment:
1273 remaining, 1144 needed to clinch
Romney has 563, needs 45.6% of those remaining.
Santorum has 263, needs 69.2%
Gingrich has 135, needs 79.3%
Paul has 50, needs 85.9%

70% is generally considered the point of no return mathematically. If Gingrich is really more interested in a Romney alternative than in feeding his own ego, the window of opportunity for endorsing Santorum is closing fast.

The electoral math, so far, still shows Santorum doing way better than Gingrich.

Seven reasons for Rick Santorum

1. Who has won the most states without the benefit of their own money, last election's organization or a billionaire casino sugar daddy?
   
2. Who is everybody's second choice when he isn't their first?
   
3. Who can get both the Romney people and the Gingrich people, who hate each other, to vote for him?
   
4. Who has the best record on immigration?
   
5. Who has the best plan for repealing ObamaCare? And is the only GOP candidate who didn't help write or approve legislation which helped spawn this fiasco?
   
6. Who has the best plan for expanding the American economy and strengthening American families?
   
7. Who is the closest thing we have to the "generic Republican" which polls show consistently beating Obama and is most likely to make the election about Obama's sorry record rather than about himself?

[USS Alaska]

Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney.

Anyone see a pattern here????

None of them are obama.

[Mr. K]

TAKE IT TO THE CONVENTION

We need a good TEA PArty march on GOP headquarters

[dforest]

Dickie Morris was on F & F this morning. We have 11 winner take all states coming up. Most favor Romney. He actually gave some states to others, quite a few actually, and he came up with Romney winning with about 1300 delegates. That is more than needed for the nomination.

So a brokered convention is looking less likely.

[Mr. K]

there is certainly a pattern there

but 2 things:

1) At this point in the primaries in 2007 the libtard media and the GOP establishment had foisted McLame on us and we were stuck with him. I hated it like poison until he picked Sarah

2) There is no clear “I’m Next” for next time (like Romney was this time)

[Pravious]

“2) There is no clear “I’m Next” for next time (like Romney was this time)”

That’s true. Newt will be too old and the only reason many people vote for Santorum is that he’s not Romney (which won’t be a factor).

But I hate looking forward to “next time”... !(@*#@, I want a candidate I can support NOW and I’m SICK of waiting decades for that person.

[riri]

Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney.

All communist enablers. Though none communists.

[ConservativeMan55]

Ya but guys like Brit Hume are degrading Newt?

Hume degrading Newt on Greta?

[Standing Wolf]

I haven't forgotten holding my nose and voting for McCain. I had a hunch at the time my doing so didn't mean America would, and I'm sorry to tell you I was right.

Doesn't America deserve better than a RINO?

[seekthetruth]

Yes, Brit Hume will continue to degrade Newt. I was told that Brit blames his son's suicide on Newt. I feel sorry for Brit for the loss of his son, and also because he has a lot of hatred in his heart.

[Old Teufel Hunden]

Newt’s chance - zero percent

Rick’s chance - about two percent

I think we all need to come to the sad realization that our nominee is M... M... M... I feel like Fonzy when he couldn’t say I was wrong....

[jaydee770]

>>...Doesn’t America deserve better than a RINO?...<<

Absolutely! But the GOP-e, Dems, Political-Power-Brokers, MSM, etc. have stacked the deck as much as they can in favor of RINO-Romney. They’ve got their thumb on the scales as much as legally possible, if not moreso.

People typically fall for the loudest and most frequent propaganda, talking points, spin, whatever you want to call it. Unfortunately, FR and sites like it, do not permeate the voting public as much as the MSM does. We are vastly outnumbered and our wee little bull-horn doesn’t even break squelch.

Just as with McCain, Romney has been selected as the next-in-line candidate from the good-ol-boy network and although it’s not impossible to overcome that, it looks like the other candidates are just not going to make it this time.

The only way we overcome that is to grow our numbers, our networks and dangit, grow some candidates that are true and know how to *LEAD*, inspire and motivate folks for what’s right. Not just play these rounds of political gamesmanship where some candidate wins and America loses.

At least that’s what *I* think. I have no idea how to go about doing it though...

[csmusaret]

G.W.Bush fits the exact same template. It was his turn because his daddy got cheated out of his second four years. Bush was the choice of the GOP establishment just like all the others on your list.

[traditional1]

"So a brokered convention is looking less likely."

This (Romney-the-RINO) has been set in stone for the past two years of promotion by the State-Run-Media.

The Establishment Elite have chosen to put up a loser, and let The Messiah have a second term. All the theatrics and supposed "anyone but Romney" hype is just that; wasted time when the inevitable occurs.

I, like many Conservatives, will NOT vote again for the Establishment Pick, and will write-in a Conservative name. (For the fools who CONTINUE to vote for the [R] just for the sake of not voting [D], YOU are the ones that the Establishment Elite are counting on, as they always do).

Even in the Primaries, you see supposed Conservatives voting for Willard, just because they want to be aligned with The Party, and vote for the known-winner....(they have no Conservative Principles that they would never compromise).

Spare me the whining about a "wasted vote", or "you are giving Obama the Win", as YOU are giving the Establishment their expected results when you vote for their spoon-fed Candidate (Willard).

Sadly, 2012 will be just another politics-as-usual event, while the Nation heads down the crapper.

Good luck with that.....

[traditional1]

"So a brokered convention is looking less likely."

This (Romney-the-RINO) has been set in stone for the past two years of promotion by the State-Run-Media.

The Establishment Elite have chosen to put up a loser, and let The Messiah have a second term. All the theatrics and supposed "anyone but Romney" hype is just that; wasted time when the inevitable occurs.

I, like many Conservatives, will NOT vote again for the Establishment Pick, and will write-in a Conservative name. (For the fools who CONTINUE to vote for the [R] just for the sake of not voting [D], YOU are the ones that the Establishment Elite are counting on, as they always do).

Even in the Primaries, you see supposed Conservatives voting for Willard, just because they want to be aligned with The Party, and vote for the known-winner....(they have no Conservative Principles that they would never compromise).

Spare me the whining about a "wasted vote", or "you are giving Obama the Win", as YOU are giving the Establishment their expected results when you vote for their spoon-fed Candidate (Willard).

Sadly, 2012 will be just another politics-as-usual event, while the Nation heads down the crapper.

Good luck with that.....