Posted on 02/20/2012 8:32:33 AM PST by Beave Meister
Will the economy (stupid) again determine the outcome of a presidential election? Based on two important economic measures that I've examined and their relationship to the presidential races since 1956, Obama supporters have cause to worry.
All but the most recent of those races featured an incumbent, whether it was a sitting president (nine races out of 13) or a vice president seeking to move into the Oval Office (four out of 13). Based on consumer spending and unemploymentthe two variables I trackedObama probably would have lost had he run for re-election this past November.
The numbers have improved since then, but not enough to tip the odds in the president's favor. (See summary data in the table below.)
For my first variable, I took the percentage increase in real consumer spending in the last six months of the year in which the election was held, compared with the previous year's last six months. That's a more tangible sign of confidence, in my view, than surveys of confidence.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.barrons.com ...
The voters may be trying to elect better leaders, but the political establishment just won't allow that outcome. Does that make you feel better?
LOL..now WHERE did I put those cyanide capsules, darn it!
Well, I voted for McCain too, I just didn’t see any other reasonable way around it. And like you, a good part of that was due to Sarah Palin.
I actually have a connection to McCain, however small. He was, for several months back in 1975 into 1976, my Commanding Officer. He was the commanding officer of VA-174 which was a training squadron. Of course, at the time I knew who he was and what he was all about even if not many others did not at the time. Being a military brat and living overseas, I knew a lot of those POWs by name, we wore the metal bracelets and all those kinds of things.
I admit that it took me some time to come to grips with the negative aspects of McCain with respect to his personal and political attitudes. It wasn’t that I couldn’t intellectually see them, it was just that emotionally I couldn’t bring it to myself to attach them to him. It was a kid thing, but we idolized all of those guys.
Funny, hadn’t really thought of that aspect much for a long time, but we used to do goofy things that kids used to do playing Army and such, and I can remember one time being captured by a friend on the other side, and I remember saying something to the effect of Okay, I’ll be Commander Denton, and you have to be the North Vietnamese guard
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