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To: Gargantua
It appears she may actually run. If she does, I fear it will be the worst political miscalculation of her career. She might be able to win the nomination. However, I see no path for her to win the general election. In the 3 years since she was placed on the ticket with McCain, she has shown an ability to win over the conservative base, but no ability to win over moderate Republicans and independents - two groups she MUST have in order to win the general election. At the moment, she has near 100% name recognition, so people know who she is. Unfortunately, more than 50% of those people have decided that they don't like her. And it is much harder to change the minds of people who already don't like you than to persuade the uncommitted.

She can't even count on having an inspired base against a dispirited opposition. While I have no doubt that Sarah's supporters will cross broken glass to vote foe her, I also have no doubt that she will inspire the same level of fervor in her opponents.

I could be wrong, and if she gets the nomination, I hope that I am wrong. But after more than 40 years of observing presidential politics, I don't see how she can win this cycle. And if she runs now and loses, she will be finished in national politics.

19 posted on 08/19/2011 11:13:47 PM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: CA Conservative

In much the same way Ronald Reagan was “finished” after the 1976 primary?


20 posted on 08/19/2011 11:27:04 PM PDT by Adams (Fight on!)
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To: CA Conservative
She might be able to win the nomination.

That is all we conservatives have to do, beat you guys in the primary, Reagan in a skirt can handle Obama.

21 posted on 08/19/2011 11:36:18 PM PDT by ansel12 ( Bristol Palin's book "Not Afraid Of Life: My Journey So Far" became a New York Times, best seller.)
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To: CA Conservative

“I could be wrong....”

Worry not, you are.


22 posted on 08/19/2011 11:50:24 PM PDT by Gator113 (Palin 2012, period.....)
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To: CA Conservative
"...but no ability to win over moderate Republicans and independents."

It is that demographic where she scores the highest. Put down the psilocyben.

"...if she runs now and loses, she will be finished in national politics."

Wow. You're only like the six-millionth fudge-chunk to trot out that inane slop. Do you know, or even care, how many thoroughly-now-discredited diaper toads have predicted her impending "political demise" over the years?

Here's a clue: The last biggest raft of them to wash over the waterfall en masse jumped on that rotted bandwagon the day she left the Governorship to face down her attackers. Nobody remembers them any more, either...

(_8(|) ... ...Doh!

29 posted on 08/20/2011 12:18:00 AM PDT by Gargantua ("Palin is announcing on September 3rd in Indianola, Iowa")
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To: CA Conservative

You honestly think people will reelect the 0bama train wreck for 4 more years?

People DON’T really know her. She was “handled” by McCain’s staff so tightly she never had a chance to show the country who she was.

The press has also done an adequate job of giving people the wrong impression about her. Someone with an approval number as high as she had in AK just has to bypass the press and let the people get to know her. That’s what campaigns do. There are many venues for that, including ads, debates, and appearances. Coverage of her tour has been pretty fair, actually. Mostly because she’s been available and answered the questions the press has put to her.

0bama’s base is completely demoralized and their turnout will be much lower. The Independents that went so heavily for him are trending to the right and the majority of the youth won’t even bother.

For someone who’s observed politics for 40 years, I’m surprised you don’t remember when Reagan ran. He couldn’t win either. Politics wasn’t as dirty then so there wasn’t the vitriol but she won’t sink herself to that level and that will be in her favor. America is desperate for positive reminders of our exceptionalism. 0bama feels like a dark cloud hanging over the country. My guess is people are sick of it.

Cindie


33 posted on 08/20/2011 1:08:58 AM PDT by gardencatz (Proud mom US Marine! It can't always be someone else's son.)
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To: CA Conservative
she has shown an ability to win over the conservative base, but no ability to win over moderate Republicans and independents - two groups she MUST have in order to win the general election.

For decades, conservatives have been told we must "go along to get along" and that we had to compromise our principles so the squishy RINOs could get elected.

Once they had enough votes, they said, THEN we'd see action.

We had all that under Dubya. Didn't get much except a porous open border and the complete devaluation of the GOP brand to the point that Obama -- an unknown, with 1/2 term in the US Senata -- very nearly won in a landslide.

Very nearly, that is, but for Our Lady of The Tundra, She of the Immaculate Convention.

If she loses, she's finished, you say?

If she runs now and WINS, and brings along a considerable Tea Party delegation in Congress with coat-tails, we can break the back of Socialism in the US and roll back all the gains the left has made since the 1960s.

Time for you RINOs and Moderates and Concern Trolls to get in the barrel and swallow.

Cheers!

43 posted on 08/20/2011 6:34:15 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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