[Homer_J_Simpson]

Now I forget, is Baldwin a good guy, or just somebody's stooge?

I believe he is a straight shooter, making the best analysis he can given the information he has. I haven't read every column he has written (by a long shot) but it seems like he gets is right - as shown by later events - more than he is off the mark. He was a little late to the party in the run up to Barbarossa, but he didn't have access to the intelligence that governments did.

How about his estimate of air power though. Was the Brewster Buffalo really a match for what the Japanese had? I thought the Buffalo was obsolete by now.

I can see that the sanctions on petroleum products going to Japan might be expected to draw their attention back to the south.

[BroJoeK]

Homer: "I can see that the sanctions on petroleum products going to Japan might be expected to draw their attention back to the south."

We have now mentioned several times Navy Intelligence Commander Arthur McCollum's "Eight Action Memo" of October 1940, but have never actually listed all eight actions.

So here they are, quoting McCollum, and all were either accomplished or under way at the time of Pearl Harbor.
Robert Stinnett calls this memo the "smoking gun":

"...It is not believed that in the present state of political opinion the United States government is capable of declaring war against Japan without more ado; and it is barely possible that vigorous action on our part might lead the Japanese to modify their attitude.
Therefore, the following course of action is suggested:

1. Make an arrangement with Britain for the use of British bases in the Pacific, particularly Singapore.
2. Make an arrangement with Holland for the use of base facilities and acquisition of supplies in the Dutch East Indies.
3. Give all possible aid to the Chinese Government of Chiang-Kai-Shek.
4. Send a division of long range heavy cruisers to the Orient, Philippines, or Singapore.
5. Send two divisions of submarines to the Orient.
6. Keep the main strength of the U.S. Fleet now in the Pacific in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands.
7. Insist that the Dutch refuse to grant Japanese demands for undue economic concessions, particularly oil.
8. Completely embargo all U.S. trade with Japan, in collaboration with a similar embargo imposed by the British Empire.

10. If by these means Japan could be led to commit an overt act of war, so much the better.
At all events we must be fully prepared to accept the threat of war."