Posted on 07/01/2011 6:13:52 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
I recently posted an article suggesting that Mchele Bachmann's candidacy, and its impact on Sarah Palin, is reminiscent of the 1980 candidacy of Phil Crane, which Ronald Reagan considered a threat to his nomination:
Is Michele Bachmann Sarah Palin's Phil Crane?
As I point out in the article linked above, Crane never really thought he had a chance for the nomination, and he was content to have one of the moderates (Baker or Bush) get the nomination in hopes that they would install Crane as the Vice-Presidential nominee. I did not explore some of the reasons why Crane's belief was well founded.
2012 looks to be very similar to 1980. The Eastern Establishment candidate, Mitt Romney, will be matched against the conservative Western former governor, Sarah Palin in roughly the same way that George H.W. Bush faced off against Ronald Reagan. 2012 also involves Michele Bachmann, conservative Congresswoman from the Midwest, whose opposite number in 1980 was Crane, a rock solid conservative Congressman from Illinois. As Crane was poised to damage Reagan, so (it is assumed)will Bachmann siphon votes from Palin. It must be conceded, however, that even with the similarities, no two cycles are precisely the same.
Why, one might ask, did Phil Crane believe that his chances for the nomination were slim? Quite simply, no Congressman, since James A. Garfield in 1880, had ever won the Presidency. Indeed Garfield (who was a dark horse selection on the 30th ballot of a brokered convention) was the LAST Congressman ever nominated by either party. But Michele Bachmann's prospects for the GOP nomination are even bleaker than were Crane's in 1980.
In order to give Bachmann's electoral viability every benefit of the doubt, let's expand the subset to which she belongs (that is: House members) to include members of the United States Senate as well. Sure, Bachmann has never won a state wide race. But just for the sake of argument, let's assume that she is U.S. Senator Bachmann, instead of Congresswoman Bachmann. The GOP has nominated three members of Congress in the last fifty years, all Senators with long tenures, specifically Goldwater, Dole and McCain. There hasn't been a sitting member of Congress--Senator or Congressman--nominated AND elected by the GOP in nearly 100 years, since Senator Warren G. Harding turned the trick in 1920.
The Democrats on the other hand--as the statist party-- have had recourse to Congress (again, only the Senate) more often, and more successfully, than the GOP. In the last 50 years, they have nominated four Senators-- Kennedy, McGovern, Kerry and Obama-- two of whom (Kennedy and Obama) won and only one of whom suffered a landslide defeat (McGovern). The Democrats as the party of Washington, are comfortable nominating candidates from the Congress, and their base responds favorably to them. The GOP, as the anti-Beltway party, is always more formidable with an Executive, whether a Governor, a former Vice President or a Commanding General than with a member of Congress. Indeed the GOP tends to nominate Senators only in years in which the prospects of victory are slim.
In 1964, the country, still reeling from the Kennedy Assassination, wanted stability. As Barry Goldwater himself observed, the country did not want three Presidents in eleven months. Goldwater lost by 20. In 1996, the economy was on the upswing and Clinton looked difficult to beat, especially with Perot planning a third party run. So the GOP could comfortably nominate the ancient Bob Dole, knowing well that the White House that year was beyond reach. Dole was beaten by 10. In 2008, the collapse of the housing market and the economy, war weariness and Bush fatigue presaged an electoral disaster for the GOP. The pre-convention polls had the Democrats comfortably ahead by anywhere from 6 to 15 points. After a brief surge into the lead (fueled by Palin's surprise VP selection and boffo convention speech) the stock market crash drove a stake through Senator John McCain's chances for an upset. In spite of the crash and his Beltway tarnish, however, McCain--aided by Palin-- ran better than any of the other recent GOP Senate nominees, losing by only 7.
Unlike 1964, 1996 and 2008, the GOP in 2012 has a genuine, indeed excellent. shot at victory. It is not going to exacerbate the disastrous formula of those election cycles by nominating a mere Congresswoman whose resume is even thinner than the Senators who went down to crashing defeats. 2012 is a year in which the GOP will nominate a governor to challenge a President, who came from Congress without Executive experience and has been a catastrophe. It will have two governors to choose from...Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin. Those who are inclined to vote for Michele Bachmann should know that they are very likely casting a vote for Mitt Romney. Bachmann cannot generate the political or financial support to defeat Romney, nor can she overcome the visceral reluctance of anti-Washington GOP primary voters to nominate a member of the hated Congress. Her impact, if she has any at all, will be to assist Mitt Romney in securing the nomination by drawing voters away from Palin. Let us remind our confreres, whom Bachmann is trying to lure, that those who do not remember history are doomed to repeat it.
>> “Reagan endorsed Phil Krane in the late 70’s in his Ill senate race.” <<
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Just as Palin endorsed Bachmann and Perry in their races in 2010.
Look at how these clods return the favor, just like Crane.
Michele Bachmann is very formidable because she has more guts than almost all of the elected men in the congress. She is very smart and very determined. All the cynicism about her motives falls today because she is proving through her voting record that she means what she says. All what she brings in terms of voting against TARP, voting against the disastrous Boehner deal with Obama end of last year, not supporting any deal that includes tax increases, and taking Obama on, is why she has influence.
She will not be the nominee, but if she continues her current strategy, her chances of being on the ticket will continue to grow. She has a lot of grassroots support, the same grassroots that produced last November’s results.
“It was a whopper of a mistake on my part.”
Since my some of vanities tend to compare various races, it is not hard to get turned around sometimes and it even happens to me.
Balanced against the bulk of your posts, which are fantastic, this one shrinks into insignificance.
What matters is that she has the highest favorables among Republicans, which she does.
In the primary all we have to do is win Republicans, the general is impossible to predict, and is a long time in the future.
“her chances of being on the ticket will continue to grow”
Bachmann’s only chance of being on a ticket is if Mitt Romney is at the head of it. And that is a prospect that most conservatives and virtually all freepers find appalling.
>> “Everyone old enough to recall the Reagan campaign knew the second he walked out of the convention he was running for President in 1980.” <<
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Just as everyone knew that America’s only hope was to elect Palin after the election in November ‘08.
Palin’s run has never been in question; she made sure that was so with her many Facebook postings, and tweets. You’ve been working against her since then too.
I want Palin to be President. All Palin supporters should only sing BacHmann praises, so when Michelle gets out of the race and supports Palin, her supporters will get on board, also.
PALIN WILL ONLY BENEFIT BY BACHMANN!
You know nothing about it. I was involved in every Reagan campaign, and you can’t fool me.
I don't think there are any ill feelings between Palin and Bachmann. I look forward to it as, on the Republican side, finally serious people discussing serious issues.
>> “What does that say about Palin’s judgement since she endorsed him his reelection bid?” <<
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Nothing at all!
Apples and oranges. Perry’s opponents in 2010 were beyond gross, and thus the choice was obvious.
Are you that stupid?
Bachmann has a long history in elective office, and she has never revealed any of that, not being formidable, not guts to lead something, or change something, not the smarts or determination to so much as succeed in passing some decent conservative bill, or any bill as far as I know, nothing.
She does pull a conservative lever, but that isn't exactly the makings of a leader, and someone that can change things, so far, inability to effect change is her defining quality, which is the opposite of what we need in government leadership.
I bet that Palin will never completely trust her after those attacks.
I don't think there are any ill feelings between Palin and Bachmann. I look forward to it as, on the Republican side, finally serious people discussing serious issues.
I agree that Bachmann's chances are long in the 2012 race. I think she is entering the race for at least one reason: a self-serving enterprise, where she will raise her profile and raise money for her war chest and also for herself.
She’s fast earning the name Michele Gaffmann. Not fun to watch.
Thanks, Victoria. Nice to see you as always.
I think the pursuit of coin and power is what motivates MB, which makes her the diametric opposite of Sarah Palin.
BC
Good point! Nice to see you, too.
>> “Why is Michele Bachmann, a Tea Party Favorite from the beginning, considered an insider?” <<
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Bachmann was put in office by the establishment, and has been joined at the hip with them all through her career. She is not a TEA party favorite, she is a trojan horse that set up a faux TEA caucus to diffuse and dilute TEA party influence in congress.
She has been successful at geting TEA Party congressmen to defect from their stated goals on the budget this year.
< p> To her credit maybe. She's anti Establishment , just like Palin , who is getting the same treatment from the GOP.
The moderates have high-jacked the conservatives since pre Buchanan, and we aim to get it back.
He almost upset a sitting President in the primaries. I have no idea what youre suppose to be the expert of.
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