Posted on 06/02/2011 8:09:42 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana
I believe that Palin's appearance in Boston and New Hampshire today, combined with what she said, has revealed her strategy to win the nomination.
I predict that Palin will pretty much leave Ron Raul, Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich alone. Her attacks on other candidates' positions will be attacks on Romney 90+% of the time.
The reason is very simple. In a two man race, if one of the candidates is Romney, the other one wins. Oh, Romney will win the Boston bedroom communities in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and a couple of Mormon states out west.
The anti-Romney is going to win the South, the heartland and most of the west.
The anti-Palin people will have to gather around a candidate, and pick him early. It is in Palin's interest that a (to many people) new face like Pawlenty NOT get traction. By attacking Romney, she will actually gin up support for him among the anti-Palin people.
Meanwhile, people like Pawlenty, who want to split the difference, and those who are good conservatives who can only draw from Palin's total (e.g. Cain) will be struggling for oxygen.
Reagan did not bother attacking Phil Crane in 1980. Even when he was pushing for the whole crew (Bush, Dole, Baker, Anderson, Connolly and Crane) to be included in the debates, he knew after Iowa that it would be him against GHWB.
Whenever Palin attacks Romney, she energizes conservatives in general, and Palin supporters in particular. Whenever Romney attacks Palin through his surrogates, he does the same. That fact does no apply to any other opponent of Palin's at this time.
Some time ago, I predicted the possibility of a multi-ballot convention. I was mistaken. With no Thune, Daniels or Huckabee, and with Gingrich demonstrating an amazing lack of feel for the political climate, the race comes down to Palin and Romney. Paul has his supporters, but they are their own breed, kind of like what George Wallace was for the Democrats in 1976, a significant player who was going nowhere.
In a Palin/Romney matchup, Palin has to be considered the odds-on favorite.
If only she were driving the bus from IA to SC!
the RINO network is setting up events all over rural NH.
Romney is running nationally, Huntsman is campaigning like his running for sheriff. McCain’s “town meeting” approach.
“Jon Huntsman makes his second trip to New Hampshire this weekend. He’ll also participate in the Friday evening cruise. From there, he’ll journey to the North Country for stops in North Conway, Errol, Colebrook, Littleton and Dixville Notch. Berlin.”
http://www.theunionleader.com/article/20110601/NEWS0605/110609989
Huntsman will break into the top tier in NH. The RINO network is very good at this. It is a small state and they are organized.
Even if Huntsman breaks into “the top tier” in New Hampshire (and I am not convinced that he will), that’s his high water mark. An Obama friendly, Mormon who’s not even socially conservative will get NOTHING in the delegate rich south. He might get into low double digits in CA if he’s still in the race.
He IS doing a good job of keeping expectations low. ALso, he has money, and has the sophistication to not spend it too in a way that could allow for later attacks of buying the nomination (That has worked against M. Huffington, L. McMahon, and of course against Romney.)
His performance in the debate was poor. I think he used “cost-benefit analysis” in EVERY answer (except the silly question about what his reality show would be). He’ll place about sixth in Iowa, and I suspect that NH RINOs will jump on the highest ranking RINO at that point, either Romney or Pawlenty.
If Bachmann gets in and gets traction, that could scramble some stuff up, especially in Iowa.
I am going to go out on a limb and predict a Romney fade. If he loses NH, and does poorly in SC ... the race will be Palin vs. Somebody else.
Pawlenty has already downgraded his NH operation, switching emphasis to IA ... he was getting no results. I do not recall Huntsman being in a debate. No reality show, either.
“On Saturday, Huntsman will visit four northern towns ... and end his day, has invited state lawmakers from the region to join him. On Sunday, he’ll head to three more towns before ending at a VFW post in Littleton, a town north of the White Mountain, near the Vermont border ... highlight what would be an intense focus on the state.”
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=9D190C66-D82B-4690-A7D3-4C39A93707AC
Oops, I confused Huntsman with New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson ... they share some similarities (SW, socially liberal). If someone like me gets those two confused so easily, it will take a heck of an effort, even in a small state like NH to break into the top tier (which in NH usually means 1st or 2nd).
I don’t doubt a Romney fade, but if he sticks it out until SC, the anti-Palin replacement will have to fight for Romney votes, helping Palin’s position. It would probably be too late to stop a Palin freight train.
I still don’t see Huntsman or Giuliani as the RINO Romney replacement. Pawlenty can be minimally acceptable to enough conservatives, and he has the right temperament and demeanor (JUST as important as positions on issues to them, and frankly, to many of us). For that reason, it makes more sense for Palin to build up Romney by attacking him and his positions by name. Romney will transparently use surrogates to attack Palin. Talk radio backed Romney last time (didn’t work) and won’t try that again. Pawlenty wants to back into the nomination (ain’t gonna happen this time), and may wind up under consideration as Palin VP, should Palin make it through (boring might be okay for a Palin VP, though foreign policy cred would be better).
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