So Who's Running, Dang it?!?

opinion | 03/02/2011 | brianbaldwin

[Jack Black]

Larry Sabato, a professor of political science does this sort of thing professionally. He groups 19 candidates into 4 tiers.

Sabato's Crystal Ball at the American Center for Politics at the University of Virgina.

Thune has definately announced he is not running.

He puts Hermain Cain and Donald Trump right where they belong, in my opinion. Americans like Vice Presidents, Governors, Senators and Generals for Presidents. It is not an entry level job open to ambitious rich people (ask Steve Forbes and Ross Perot) or well known kooks (ask Ralph Nader)

Ron Paul fans will be glad to see he outplaced both of them, while still managing to languish in Tier 4, where he cearly belongs. As does his soulmate Gary Johnson I'm afraid. Open Borders and Legal Pot are great for Liberty Club Dinner topics but will probably not be the winning issues in the 2012 GOP nominating drive.

I'd probably put Christie just under Newt in the 2nd tier, not in the third.

I'd probably also put Palin in the first spot. It's hard for me to imagine her not cleaning the floor with Huck and polishing it after with Mitt. (And I'm not a big Palin fan.)

[americanophile]

I wait and hope for the tools to do the job.

[unseen1]

huntsman Daniels

[clee1]

Herman Cain is a GA conservative. Business executive. Conservative radio host. Ran for US Senate here in 2000. Black man.

He’d be an excellent POTUS.

[Friendofgeorge]

This is Palin country, just quoting Jim R (God bless him today btw)

Palin or bust, for sure she is running...I hope/pray

[Bigtigermike]

Demint isn’t running......he said so many times, he wants to be the majority leader one day

[Caipirabob]

Palin - Probably not running

I really would like her to run, but I'm concerned we're not hearing more background noise to that end.

Perhaps this coming trip to India is what I'm looking for? We'll see.

Cheers...

[Sybeck1]

The whole Palin following is hinging on her running. If she does not run her name will be MUD with the masses. There will be voter apathy galore in the ranks. And I also predict burnings of her books.

[kevkrom]

I'd probably also put Palin in the first spot. It's hard for me to imagine her not cleaning the floor with Huck and polishing it after with Mitt. (And I'm not a big Palin fan.)

If Palin and Huckabee both run, it's to Romney's advantage. Palin is pretty much the second choice of most Huckabee folks, so if he clearly isn't running, it's to Palin's advantage.

[Shimmer1]

http://sayanythingblog.com/entry/herman-cain-for-president/

[Falcon28]

Batman?

That's Adam West. Seriously, you've never heard of Allen West?

[alstewartfan]

I completely disagree that Sarah Palin is a “second-tier candidate. She has executive experience, a sound philosophy of government, integrity and courage. Fiery courageousness will be imperative in the upcoming Pres. race, as the panorama of America is about to become as ugly as anyone alive has ever seen it. We don’t need the soft-spoken guys such as George Allen or Trent Lott who crumble at the utterance of the word “macaca” or “racism”. Bob

[americanophile]

...I know you do.

[GlockLady]

I believe Sarah is going to keep “background noise” to a very minimum. She knows, once she declares, that the focus will be all on her. She is going to want her bases covered first. She WILL run but in her own rogue way. JMHO
She knows it will be necessary but difficult for her to do retail politics. That is where she shines and she will do it, however. Just tough to figure out the logistics for security purposes, etc.

[Jack Black]

The Presidency is sort of like Wimbledon. Someone is going to try to win it, advance through the ranks, and advance to the finals against Federer. It's not a position that will go vacant just because Obama has an advantage, anymore than the finals challenger at Wimbledon will go vacanct.

• held the ATP number one position for a record 237 consecutive weeks

• holding at least 1 Grand Slam title every single week from Wimbledon 2003 until the Australian Open in 2011

• He is one of seven male players to capture the career Grand Slam and one of three (with Andre Agassi and Rafael Nadal)

• to do so on three different surfaces (clay, grass and hard courts).

• Federer has appeared in an unprecedented 22 career Grand Slam finals,

• of which 10 were consecutive appearances,

• Won Wibledon in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, & 2009

  None the less others kept showing up, and beat him in at his best tournement in 2008 and 2010.

  So the question is "who is the best challenger", as we're not going to skip it.

[Jack Black]

Liked your format, am stealing it and modding

Romney - yes

Palin - maybe

Pawlenty - yes

Gingrich - yes

Hermain Cain - yes

Barbour - no

Mitch Daniels - maybe

Rick Santorium - no or meaningless

John Huntsman - no

Trump - yes ( perhaps joking around for the fun of it)

Huckabee - yes

Guiliani - no

Bolton - no

Ron Paul - yes

Michele Bachmann - yes

Thune - No

Pence - No

Christie - maybe

[magritte]

Thinking on Guiliani, I suspect that he is going to linger “near” the field...if a conservative is nominated, he looks open to play the Cheney role as VP...magritte

[Bigtigermike]

You are incorrect at least on Palin and Huckabee - those two are clearer each day..... She is running and her book Going Rogue explains what she is doing as well as her people are in Iowa. Huckabee is most likely not.

[Jack Black]

You might be right. I can't read Palin's intentions. I haven't read Going Rogue.

I've seen Huck on TV a bunch, he's got the new book. Maybe just a smart money-making strategy (ala Coulter's claim that Gingrich pretends to run every four years to boost book sales), but he looks like he is going to.

But then he made those comments about not being made poor by the process, so maybe you are right. We'll just have to see I guess.

Meanwhile Palin seems to be somewhat fading as a candidate. InTrade has her at only 6%, about even with Gingrich and way under Romney, Huck and even Pawlenty. (InTrade's not everything, but it's not nothing).

Here are the InTrade numbers:

Republican Presidential Nominee

Mitt Romney 25.0%
Mitch Daniels 10.9%
Tim Pawlenty 12.3%
Mike Huckabee 8.3%
Sarah Palin 5.5%
Newt Gingrich 6.0%
Jon Huntsman 4.3%
Haley Barbour 3.2%
Michele Bachmann 4.1%
Donald Trump 2.0%
Chris Christie 3.0%
Rudy Giuliani 0.9%
Ron Paul 1.6%
Jeb Bush 1.6%

... there are other low % thrill seekers like Herman Cain on the list too.

[Bigtigermike]

Intrade is not serious this far out.....it’s people wasting extra money throwing it around - how can Mitt be the top guy considering , shunning the Tea Party, had no connection to grassroots movement et al.? These people are not serious betters until people announce and campaigns begin