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Larry Sabato, a professor of political science does this sort of thing professionally. He groups 19 candidates into 4 tiers.

Sabato's Crystal Ball at the American Center for Politics at the University of Virgina.

Thune has definately announced he is not running.

He puts Hermain Cain and Donald Trump right where they belong, in my opinion. Americans like Vice Presidents, Governors, Senators and Generals for Presidents. It is not an entry level job open to ambitious rich people (ask Steve Forbes and Ross Perot) or well known kooks (ask Ralph Nader)

Ron Paul fans will be glad to see he outplaced both of them, while still managing to languish in Tier 4, where he cearly belongs. As does his soulmate Gary Johnson I'm afraid. Open Borders and Legal Pot are great for Liberty Club Dinner topics but will probably not be the winning issues in the 2012 GOP nominating drive.

I'd probably put Christie just under Newt in the 2nd tier, not in the third.

I'd probably also put Palin in the first spot. It's hard for me to imagine her not cleaning the floor with Huck and polishing it after with Mitt. (And I'm not a big Palin fan.)

I'd probably also put Palin in the first spot. It's hard for me to imagine her not cleaning the floor with Huck and polishing it after with Mitt. (And I'm not a big Palin fan.)

If Palin and Huckabee both run, it's to Romney's advantage. Palin is pretty much the second choice of most Huckabee folks, so if he clearly isn't running, it's to Palin's advantage.