Posted on 01/21/2011 7:24:31 PM PST by Signalman
Colder winters could become the norm in Europe over the next 20 to 40 years, US-based forecaster Weather Services International said Tuesday.
We have recently noticed a change in [weather] patterns back to what we had in the 1950s and 1960s in Europe Weve had three cold winters in a row in the UK, WSI's chief meteorologist Todd Crawford told Platts.
We believe there is a strong likelihood that its going to hang around for the next 20 to 30 years.
If true, the findings could have important implications for the European energy markets, where demand typically increases during winter because of higher heating and lighting requirements.
Peak electricity demand hit an all-time record in France at the beginning of December, and was near its historic record in the UK, amid temperatures that were more than 10 degrees Celsius below the seasonal norm.
Natural gas and gasoil demand also soared. Behind the freezing temperatures is the North Atlantic Oscillation, a climatic phenomenon that normally sends wind from western European countries to the east, keeping cold air from the Arctic at bay. But in December the current was flowing in the opposite direction, bringing cold Arctic air to western European regions and sending energy demand to fresh highs.
During the last 30-40 years, the NAO was predominantly positive resulting in much warmer, wetter winters, Crawford said. Starting in 2008, however, the NAO has sharply reversed to a much more negative state and the result has been quite notable with three straight cold winters in the UK.
WSI said the reversal in the NAO could be due to three factors: recent cyclical changes in North Atlantic ocean temperatures; climate change, which results in warmer Arctic air and sends cold air southward to Europe; and a weak solar cycle.
AMO (Annual Atlantic Temperature Anomalies (normalized) versus the annual AMO (normalized)). Enlarged here.
Crawford said all factors were potentially at play, but that reduced solar activity may turn out to the main culprit. Our current solar cycle has been the quietest in at least 70 years, and there is some valid concern that there may be significant cooling going forward, he said.
We feel that the NAO has entered a cyclical negative phase, and will likely be predominantly negative for the next 20 to 40 years. This doesnt mean every winter will have negative NAO, just most of them, he added.
Talking to Platts Tuesday, UK national weather service the Met Office said: There is a large amount of variability in the NAO any long-term predictions of the NAO are speculative. That said, there are avenues of research being pursued to improve our understanding and ability to make such predictions in the future.
Electricity traders said Tuesday the colder-than-usual temperatures seen last December were still being treated by market operators as an anomaly, and would unlikely result in higher prices next winter.
That's interesting
but you certainly wouldnt trade off information like that, a trader at a large UK utility said. It is something that must be considered going forward, a second trader said. But the problem in the past has been that many people state they are an authority on weather, and actually distinguishing the good from the bad can be quite difficult.
Right. Climate change makes Arctic air warmer, and sends cold air southward into Europe....uh...
Wait......that makes no sense...
I live in Texas. You ever lived through a Texas summer?
Bring on the Global Warming!
Just as the Muslims move in, the place become uninhabitable.
of course, the Muslims’ moving in would have done that, anyway.
Just as the Muslims move in, the place become uninhabitable.
of course, the Muslims’ moving in would have done that, anyway.
Pardon Denied!
Study Rev. Algore's "Inconvenient Truth" and get your dang head right!
I'm no expert in meteorology or statistics but that statement seems to be utter meaningless in terms of guessing future weather patterns.
The climate is constantly changing. No amount of tax-fueled boondoggles will do anything about that.
The new Little Ice Age, anyone?
Thanks for posting.
"Hans Brinker and the Silver Skates?"
Yea, pretty soon they’ll be begging for those good ol’ global warming days.
Drive a little east to New Jersey, we have had plenty of snow to build snowmen the last couple of years. After twenty years of global warming it is cold in the spring and winter and hot in the summer and fall, like it always has been. Couple of years ago you needed a jacket into June.
Oil and natural gas — and long vulnerable piplines from Russia.
If the conditions are right (thick ice on the canals), those registered for it who have qualified get an email informing them of the race. It's a pretty big deal, and there are a lot of other skaters who are on the B list, so to speak, who fill up remaining slots.
If you look at some of the Flemish and Dutch master paintings from the Old Days, there are a lot of them of people skating on canals. If the paintings portray actual events, and there's no reason to believe they don't, then it was a heck of a lot colder then (mini-Ice Age) than what Europe's had for the past 20 years or so.
I have followed some meterologist on Accuweather and they seem to use patterns from previous years that are analous to the current pattern to help determine future weather patterns. I couldn’t tell you if this is used by all weather gurus or if its a preferencial thing.
heck, The winters of the 70s and 80s were wicked. Snow and freezing temps.
Some winters in the 90s were awful. 1996 was colder than heck and in 1994, the record low was 24 below.
Import snow from Mexico to build the snowmen Americans just won't build.
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