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Freezing Winters In Europe Could Be The Norm
IceCap ^ | 1/21/2011 | Oliver LeJeune

Posted on 01/21/2011 7:24:31 PM PST by Signalman

Colder winters could become the norm in Europe over the next 20 to 40 years, US-based forecaster Weather Services International said Tuesday.

“We have recently noticed a change in [weather] patterns back to what we had in the 1950s and 1960s in Europe… We’ve had three cold winters in a row in the UK,” WSI's chief meteorologist Todd Crawford told Platts.

“We believe there is a strong likelihood that it’s going to hang around for the next 20 to 30 years.”

If true, the findings could have important implications for the European energy markets, where demand typically increases during winter because of higher heating and lighting requirements.

Peak electricity demand hit an all-time record in France at the beginning of December, and was near its historic record in the UK, amid temperatures that were more than 10 degrees Celsius below the seasonal norm.

Natural gas and gasoil demand also soared. Behind the freezing temperatures is the North Atlantic Oscillation, a climatic phenomenon that normally sends wind from western European countries to the east, keeping cold air from the Arctic at bay. But in December the current was flowing in the opposite direction, bringing cold Arctic air to western European regions and sending energy demand to fresh highs.

“During the last 30-40 years, the NAO was predominantly positive resulting in much warmer, wetter winters,” Crawford said. “Starting in 2008, however, the NAO has sharply reversed to a much more negative state and the result has been quite notable with three straight cold winters in the UK.”

WSI said the reversal in the NAO could be due to three factors: recent cyclical changes in North Atlantic ocean temperatures; climate change, which results in warmer Arctic air and sends cold air southward to Europe; and a “weak” solar cycle.

AMO (Annual Atlantic Temperature Anomalies (normalized) versus the annual AMO (normalized)). Enlarged here.

Crawford said all factors were potentially at play, but that reduced solar activity may turn out to the main culprit. “Our current solar cycle has been the quietest in at least 70 years, and there is some valid concern that there may be significant cooling going forward,” he said.

“We feel that the NAO has entered a cyclical negative phase, and will likely be predominantly negative for the next 20 to 40 years. This doesn’t mean every winter will have negative NAO, just most of them,” he added.

Talking to Platts Tuesday, UK national weather service the Met Office said: “There is a large amount of variability in the NAO… any long-term predictions of the NAO are speculative.” “That said, there are avenues of research being pursued to improve our understanding and ability to make such predictions in the future.”

Electricity traders said Tuesday the colder-than-usual temperatures seen last December were still being treated by market operators as an anomaly, and would unlikely result in higher prices next winter.

“That's interesting… but you certainly wouldn’t trade off information like that,” a trader at a large UK utility said. “It is something that must be considered going forward,” a second trader said. “But the problem in the past has been that many people state they are an authority on weather, and actually distinguishing the good from the bad can be quite difficult.”


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: agwscam; freezing; globalcooling; icecap
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To: Ciexyz
Looks like a Big Noreaster is going to crank up early next week. All models are predicting another East coast blizzard. Snow could be so intense that even Western PA might see some action.

The Really Big One... Next Week???

21 posted on 01/21/2011 8:07:49 PM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: Signalman
"...climate change, which results in warmer Arctic air and sends cold air southward to Europe..."

Right. Climate change makes Arctic air warmer, and sends cold air southward into Europe....uh...

Wait......that makes no sense...

22 posted on 01/21/2011 8:08:34 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: djf
Enjoy those warm summer days while you can!

I live in Texas. You ever lived through a Texas summer?

Bring on the Global Warming!

23 posted on 01/21/2011 8:11:07 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Signalman

Just as the Muslims move in, the place become uninhabitable.

of course, the Muslims’ moving in would have done that, anyway.


24 posted on 01/21/2011 8:13:15 PM PST by Arthur McGowan (In Edward Kennedy's America, federal funding of brothels is a right, not a privilege.)
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To: Signalman

Just as the Muslims move in, the place become uninhabitable.

of course, the Muslims’ moving in would have done that, anyway.


25 posted on 01/21/2011 8:13:24 PM PST by Arthur McGowan (In Edward Kennedy's America, federal funding of brothels is a right, not a privilege.)
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To: rdl6989
Pardon my stupidity, isn’t it SUPPOSED to be freezing in winter?

Pardon Denied!

Study Rev. Algore's "Inconvenient Truth" and get your dang head right!



26 posted on 01/21/2011 8:15:14 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Signalman
“We have recently noticed a change in [weather] patterns back to what we had in the 1950s and 1960s in Europe… We’ve had three cold winters in a row in the UK,” WSI's chief meteorologist Todd Crawford told Platts.

I'm no expert in meteorology or statistics but that statement seems to be utter meaningless in terms of guessing future weather patterns.

27 posted on 01/21/2011 8:17:57 PM PST by Straight Vermonter (Posting from deep behind the Maple Curtain)
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To: Flycatcher

The climate is constantly changing. No amount of tax-fueled boondoggles will do anything about that.


28 posted on 01/21/2011 8:19:46 PM PST by rbg81
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To: Signalman

The new Little Ice Age, anyone?


29 posted on 01/21/2011 8:19:46 PM PST by therightliveswithus
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To: justa-hairyape

Thanks for posting.


30 posted on 01/21/2011 8:21:46 PM PST by unkus
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To: dr_lew
"I saw some show about speed skating which talked about some kind of skating marathon held on the canals of Holland, in years when conditions allow it."

"Hans Brinker and the Silver Skates?"

31 posted on 01/21/2011 8:28:12 PM PST by Flag_This (Real presidents don't bow.)
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To: ThunderSleeps

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMx6zrMzm-o&feature=related


32 posted on 01/21/2011 8:30:59 PM PST by mamelukesabre (Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum (If you want peace prepare for war))
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To: Signalman

Yea, pretty soon they’ll be begging for those good ol’ global warming days.


33 posted on 01/21/2011 8:32:02 PM PST by MsLady (If you died tonight, where would you go? Salvation, don't leave earth without it!)
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To: Ciexyz

Drive a little east to New Jersey, we have had plenty of snow to build snowmen the last couple of years. After twenty years of global warming it is cold in the spring and winter and hot in the summer and fall, like it always has been. Couple of years ago you needed a jacket into June.


34 posted on 01/21/2011 8:45:53 PM PST by gusty
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To: GOPJ

Oil and natural gas — and long vulnerable piplines from Russia.


35 posted on 01/21/2011 9:12:55 PM PST by BenLurkin (This post is not a statement of fact. It is merely a personal opinion -- or humor -- or both)
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To: dr_lew
It's called the Elfstedentoch, and it's a 200-km race through 11 cities up in Friesland. Dunno if they ran it last year or in the past few. They ran it in '86.

If the conditions are right (thick ice on the canals), those registered for it who have qualified get an email informing them of the race. It's a pretty big deal, and there are a lot of other skaters who are on the B list, so to speak, who fill up remaining slots.

If you look at some of the Flemish and Dutch master paintings from the Old Days, there are a lot of them of people skating on canals. If the paintings portray actual events, and there's no reason to believe they don't, then it was a heck of a lot colder then (mini-Ice Age) than what Europe's had for the past 20 years or so.

36 posted on 01/21/2011 9:22:30 PM PST by Othniel (There is no god named Allah, and Mohammed is its false prophet.)
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To: Straight Vermonter

I have followed some meterologist on Accuweather and they seem to use patterns from previous years that are analous to the current pattern to help determine future weather patterns. I couldn’t tell you if this is used by all weather gurus or if its a preferencial thing.


37 posted on 01/22/2011 3:59:33 AM PST by June2
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To: Ciexyz

heck, The winters of the 70s and 80s were wicked. Snow and freezing temps.
Some winters in the 90s were awful. 1996 was colder than heck and in 1994, the record low was 24 below.


38 posted on 01/22/2011 4:02:16 AM PST by Yorlik803 (better to die on your feet than live on your knees.)
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To: Army Air Corps; FrPR; enough_idiocy; meyer; Normandy; Whenifhow; TenthAmendmentChampion; Clive; ...
Thanx again, Army Air Corps !

 


Beam me to Planet Gore !

39 posted on 01/22/2011 5:03:34 AM PST by steelyourfaith (ObamaCare Death Panels: a Final Solution to the looming Social Security crisis ?)
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To: Ciexyz
how many snowmen do you see getting built today.

Import snow from Mexico to build the snowmen Americans just won't build.

40 posted on 01/22/2011 5:07:34 AM PST by Lazamataz (If Illegal Aliens are Undocumented Workers, than Thieves are Undocumented Shoppers.)
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