Posted on 12/21/2010 12:55:19 PM PST by paman12
I have been waiting for the reapportionment of the congressional seats to make my electoral election analysis.
Republican strong holds: I highly doubt that any seat that voted against Obama in 2008 will vote for him in 2012. Those states are: WV, SC, GA, TN, KY, AL, MS, LA, TX, AR, MO, OK, NB, KS, ND, SD, MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, AK. In 2012 that will give the Republican 180 votes.
Democratic strong holds: These are the states that will vote for Obama or the democratic nominee no matter what, also known as the hopeless states: VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, MD, IL, CA, WA, OR, HI, NJ, DE and Washington DC. In 2012 that will give Obama 182 votes.
Possible swing states: These are the states that voted for Obama in 2008 that could possibly turn republican in 2012. These states are ME, NH, PA, VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, MI, WI, IA, MN, NM, CO and NV. That leaves 176 votes up in the air.
States that are more likely to vote republican are: VA, NC, OH, IN and IA. They total up to 63 votes.
States that are more likely to vote democrat are: ME, NH, PA, MI, WI, MN, CO, NV, and NM. These states add up to 84 votes.
Currently that leaves republicans 243 and democrats 266.
There is one state left and that is Florida. This state may be the state that decides the president of the United States. Florida's electoral vote in 2012 is 29.
You need 270 votes to win. With Florida republicans have 272 and democrats would have 295.
Detroit has lost about half it’s population. Michigan is a real mixed bag now. I think it’ll go Republican but, who knows.
Hmm..lots of grammar gripers on the board this afternoon.
Anyway, interesting analysis. Thanks for posting it. :-)
I believe your analysis assumes the Republicans put up a mediocre candidate and under that scenario the electoral vote will be close, but the Republicans will squeak out a win.
I have faith the Republicans pull a rabbit out of the hat and put up a candidate that inspires the nation as Reagan did.
Under that scenario Obama will only capture a few of the diehard leftist states.
You should probably think about rewriting the last sentence.
I didn’t write it. I just read it and was able to understand what the writer meant and translate for those who couldn’t comprehend what s/he meant.
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