Posted on 12/21/2010 12:55:19 PM PST by paman12
I have been waiting for the reapportionment of the congressional seats to make my electoral election analysis.
Republican strong holds: I highly doubt that any seat that voted against Obama in 2008 will vote for him in 2012. Those states are: WV, SC, GA, TN, KY, AL, MS, LA, TX, AR, MO, OK, NB, KS, ND, SD, MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, AK. In 2012 that will give the Republican 180 votes.
Democratic strong holds: These are the states that will vote for Obama or the democratic nominee no matter what, also known as the hopeless states: VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, MD, IL, CA, WA, OR, HI, NJ, DE and Washington DC. In 2012 that will give Obama 182 votes.
Possible swing states: These are the states that voted for Obama in 2008 that could possibly turn republican in 2012. These states are ME, NH, PA, VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, MI, WI, IA, MN, NM, CO and NV. That leaves 176 votes up in the air.
States that are more likely to vote republican are: VA, NC, OH, IN and IA. They total up to 63 votes.
States that are more likely to vote democrat are: ME, NH, PA, MI, WI, MN, CO, NV, and NM. These states add up to 84 votes.
Currently that leaves republicans 243 and democrats 266.
There is one state left and that is Florida. This state may be the state that decides the president of the United States. Florida's electoral vote in 2012 is 29.
You need 270 votes to win. With Florida republicans have 272 and democrats would have 295.
In track and field this is called a false start.
Depressing. We are headed towards Obama as the needy have exceeded the producers, even if that means healthy, but on the dole.
Cool. So according to your math the country will have 567 electoral votes and two presidents.
That’s interesting. Sadly the great state of Colorado appears to be gone.
PA looked better in 2010 — there may be some movement in the Right direction.
I thought IA had been consistently Dem the last few cycles.
WI may be moving our way — knocking out Feingold was a very good sign.
Not sure about NC.
Howsabout the reapportionment? Losses in all the Blue states can’t help our Kenyan POTUS and has to help us a lot.
Not to mention the newly-Republican statehouses that could gerrymander in OUR favor (for a change).
Yeah, I think you corrected him/her correctly.
I think Michigan and Wisconsin are going to be difficult holds for Obama. If you look at the victories we had in these states in 2010, you have got to think obama’s gonna have issues.
I think the GOP needs to win all the states McCain won in ‘08, plus FL, OH, IN and NC. That would give them 253 votes. From there, they’ll need 17 more votes, probably from VA and one other state (possibly NV or CO).
Paman12, you are making the assumption that Obama will run.
It is, in my opinion, highly unlikely that Obama is a natural born citizen. He might have been audacious enough to pull off scamming the American people once, but to get away with it twice is unlikely.
So what you are really saying is that if we turn a couple of these states, ME, NH, PA, MI, WI, MN, CO, NV, and NM we have a chance (as well as take Fl).
Which two should we pick to focus on?
“Cool. So according to your math the country will have 567 electoral votes and two presidents.”
That’s right. We now have 57 states (DC, PR, VI, Guam, American Samoa, Marshall Is, Midway Is.) Didn’t you get the memo from dear leader?
No. If FL’s 29 EVs go R, the GOP ends up with 272; if FL’s 29 EVs go Dem, they end up with 295. All 29 votes will go one way or the other.
Reread the last sentence. It covers the scenario of FL’s 29 EV’s going one way or the other. Add the 29 to the D’s and you have 295, or add the 29 to the R’s and it’s 272. Those 29 EVs aren’t being counted twice.
Sorry... go back to school.
LLS
In WI, you cna put that in the strong repub category.
We flipped the Governor, State House, State Senate, one US senate, and 3 US House Seats to Republican. WI is the strongest state in the country flipping dem to repub.
Under the new governor we will get photo id for voting. This will help reduce the rampant democrat cheating in vote fraud that occurs in Milwaukee, Madison, southeast Wisconsin in general, and Green Bay and Lacrosse.
There is also a good chance he will decertify the unions in Wisconsin which will heavily damage their fundraising and political donation abilities.
Yup, kinda like Abe Lincoln and Jeff Davis were both President at the same time!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.