Seems the senators claims are now confirmed
Posted on 06/22/2010 12:09:14 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Did you question the day that they stopped showing the live feed to the gusher because the lens was dirty?
That’s been weighing on my mind...though I don’t know why. It just seemed strange.
Did we ever find out why the SWAT teams were sent?
Questions...questions...
This thread got me going...:
Wolf Blitzer: “Billion potential barrels of oil” under BP well; “Could really explode” expert says
posted by rainyday on June 8, 2010 - 3:06am
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Seems the senators claims are now confirmed
That assertion seems to be a bit over the top ....
from the link
A leaked document from the White House Commission’s investigation into the Gulf oil spill says that Gulf oil spill was caused initially by blown well 9 7/8 x7″casing.
The internal document also reveals some other data not known to the public such as the oil reservoir pressure is at a shocking 12,000 PSI.
As best we can./...There is so much wild speculation....we need to get some base FACTS!
Nite....
I am ignoring all of the rest of the info....
I am simply looking to get a handle on the reservoir pressure....
Based on this Scout Ticket being authetic....
Will work on that tomorrow...
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Whoops....didn't get this posted....
fyi
Just a few comments about some things in the post.
Re: Well Pressure
« Reply #2 on May 15, 2010, 10:43pm »
Based on the 14 ppg mud that was in the hole, the the reservoir pressure would be +/- 13,000 psi. The column of oil that is being ejected would give +/ 4,000 psi HSP. The seawater at 5,000 feet would apply 2,000 psi down. So without friction calculation you could reckon on needing to contain about 7,000 psi.
The cooling effect would be minuscule so a temperature about 200 degree F could be expected. The ocean would easily chill that. Within minutes the oil would be at the water temperature.
I know nothing of all this, but it seems to be like trying to investigate aircraft accident where the black boxes have not been found or decoded. Unless and until they can get info on the aircraft’s airspeed, etc. it’s mostly speculation, some of it by those who know what they’re talking about and pretty accurate, but most of it just wild guessing. As with any complicated event there are lots and lots of things going on, some of which are OK but others which are quite distressing. Figuring out which is which takes a while, especially when the pilot is not available to help understand what happened and what was done in response.
And, like most disasters it will probably come down to a few very basic mistakes that were made, each of which compounded another error.
From what we’ve heard so far it really looks like the people doing the work cut corners and took chances. Just like pilots of crashed airplanes are determined to have done. And, just like with air disasters, it’s going to take a long time to work through all the information available and get the facts from those involved.
Unlike with aircraft accidents, there’s not a broad database of facts and figures on similar events to turn to for clues.
THX THX.
Notes from:
Lindsey Williams on Politics 101 w. Dan Gonzales
Topic: Gulf Oil Disaster
Background:
1970's - Russia started drilling exploratory wells 40,230 ft. deep. 310 successfull super deep wells were put into production making Russia the world's largest oil producer up to today. At this depth they found ABIOTIC OIL.
Abiotic oil is formed at the heart of the Earth. It is NOT a fossil fuel. The Russians drilled these wells on dry land; never in the ocean. Modern American Company aka British Petroleum (BP) wanted to compete with Russia.
This brings us to the current disaster... This was an accident. This was NOT an inside job.
The Oil Rig Goes Down:
BP tried drilling one of these super deep wells on an UNANCHORED drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The United States Government issued BP the permits to begin their drilling operation, knowing full well the scope of the operation.
They started drilling 5000 ft below the surface of the gulf, and then another 25,000 to 30,000 ft into the earth; NOT the reported 3800 ft. They hit a strata of oil at such a pressure it burst every safety valve. They unexpectedly hit pressures beyond any human technological containment.
When a new well is put into place, two things are normally reported, but weren't:
1) Flow rate at well head (unknown or not reported)
2) Well Head Pressure (Normal Pressure: 1500 psi like Alaskan rigs)
The well head in the gulf experienced pressures at 20,000-70,000 psi! No oilman has ever seen this type of pressure at a well head.
The safety valve warped under the immense pressure and failed to contain the well. They did not replace it because they knew that no safety valve would work. Industry figures give a low figure of 4 million+ gallons (77,000 barrels) of oil A DAY leak out of the gulf deep well.
Containment:
Every attempt to stop the flow has failed. The only option they have to seal it is to drill an angled well into the existing well and send a nuclear weapon into the leak, detonate it, thus sealing the well. Prep time to make this happen is 3-4 months. However, if it fails, the nuke would rupture the strata and it will never be stopped. The oilmen are scared to resort to this tactic. It is a gamble.
The main pipe was 20 inches in diameter and 2 inches thick of steel. The materials being pushed up through that pipe contain abrasive materials. These abrasive materials have worn down the pipe to 1 inch thick and has ruptured all the way up the pipe from way under the ground, causing seepage. The plumes of oil that BP and the Government denied existing were caused by the erosion of the main pipe. Plumes of oil are seeping up through the sea bed at distances of 20 or more miles away from the main pipe. BP and the Government both now admit to the plumes' existence.
Hidden Danger:
The reddish crude oil is one thing, but the EPA report that Volatile Organic Compounds are being released into the air. The EPA tested the air in Florida this past week and report that the following toxic gasses are being released into the air from the well:
1)Hydrogen Sulfide (toxic, flammable) safe levels: 5-10 ppb tested: 1200 ppb
2)Benzene (toxic, carcinogen) safe levels:0-4 ppb tested: 3000 ppb
3)Methaline Chloride (toxic, flammable) safe levels:61 ppb tested: 3000-3400 ppb
The prevailing winds blow NW to the SE, carrying these toxic gasses over Florida. One hurricane will spread these invisible toxic gasses up the East Coast.
There is concern that a giant gas bubble is forming which could release an exponential amount of these gasses into the atmosphere. However, nobody is talking about this yet.
There is also concern that a release of pressure from the oil chamber could trigger tectonic activity. USGS have reported that around 25 small earthquakes occur around the well on a daily basis. It is certain that the tectonic plates have been affected. If more pressure is released along the N and S faults, major earthquakes could occur. It is suggested to google midplate and deepplate faultlines and see their activity.
It should be between 14 and 14.3 ppg gradient so about:
14 x .052 x 18260 = 13293
Probably considerably below that now with all the drawdown.
Until there is a bottom hole pressure survey this is close enough.
If you’re trying to calculate stock tank barrels of oil in place use a GOR of around 11 scf / bbl for miocene oil as I recall though this one is gassier than usual I am told.
BTW, blitzer is full of bs.
Matt Simmons is amazing. How can someone who is COB of an investment banking firm write and say such absurd things? Matt gets some things right but I think he is actually trying to stir things up most of the time.
If there is a billion bbls in this well... there probably isn’t. Maybe, maybe 250mmbo but not a billion.
I’m not sure anything in that e-mail is true.
For example, it is clear the pressure wasn’t 20-70,000 pounds. The well was under control until they took the mud out.
I’ve also seen no indication either BP or the government has signed on to the theory of oil plumes from this well showing up elsewhere.
And if the pipe was cracked up the pipe, we’d see oil leaking out from directly beneath the BOP, and they’ve been watching that closely and there’s no indication of oil coming up just outside the riser — the idea that the oil would find cracks 20 miles away, but not (at 20,000 pounds) be able to push through the cracks between the rough hole and the smooth liner is silly.
“Thanks, Ernest_at_the_Beach! Good data. Now if BP will release the recorded data that they have, we may get the whole answer.”
They already have. And the pressure at the bottom of the BOP was 4400 psig on 25 May. Reservoir pressure downhole was known to be 13000 psi from measurements taken by “wireline”.
From here (for the BOP):
http://www.energy.gov/open/oilspilldata.htm
And “The Oil Drum” for the 13,000 figure.
For pre-blowout, all the data is available. The drilling rig was equipped with equipment that transmitted ALL data to Houston, in real time, as the instrumentation received it. Most rigs don't have that capability, but this one did. No "black boxes" needed. The gov't already has the data by now. Don't know if it has been published on the Web yet.
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