[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Whatever a Scout Ticket is,...it seems authentic...and the logic of the mud weight and losing circulation as stated in the post makes sense...so this would indicate that the pressure at depth 18260 was less than 13768 psi....so let's say 13,000.

I am ignoring all of the rest of the info....

I am simply looking to get a handle on the reservoir pressure....

Based on this Scout Ticket being authetic....

Will work on that tomorrow...

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Whoops....didn't get this posted....

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

fyi

[Quix]

THX THX.

[Sequoyah101]

It should be between 14 and 14.3 ppg gradient so about:

14 x .052 x 18260 = 13293

Probably considerably below that now with all the drawdown.

Until there is a bottom hole pressure survey this is close enough.

If you’re trying to calculate stock tank barrels of oil in place use a GOR of around 11 scf / bbl for miocene oil as I recall though this one is gassier than usual I am told.

[Sequoyah101]

BTW, blitzer is full of bs.

Matt Simmons is amazing. How can someone who is COB of an investment banking firm write and say such absurd things? Matt gets some things right but I think he is actually trying to stir things up most of the time.

If there is a billion bbls in this well... there probably isn’t. Maybe, maybe 250mmbo but not a billion.

[Marine_Uncle]

One hardly knows what to believe is the true condition at this well bore site. To many wide variance in pressure numbers and barrels per minute/hour/day being leaked at any given orifice or from the seabed, to know what to think at this point.
And as for the supposed huge oil plumes. What would keep the oil from rising to the surface based on the specific gravity of salt water verse oil.
To much does not seem to be accurate reporting.

[Smokin' Joe]

The initial mud weight I recall was 16.8 lbs/gal. Doing the math, the hydrostatic from that mud weight before the riser was displaced is: 16.8*.052*18000=15724 psi at 18000 ft.

Displacing the riser would have dropped that hydrostatic (at full displacement with seawater) by (16.8-8.5)*.062*5000=2158 psi. which leaves 15724-2158=13566 psi of hydrostatic pressure at 18000, and the formation flowing. Formation pressure is somewhere between the two, because the riser was not yet fully displaced when the formation began flowing.

Pressure at the wellhead would be the difference between formation pressure and the hydrostatic pressure from the fluid column in the wellbore, and the question there remains one of how severely gas cut that column is. If the oil/gas mix has a weight of 5 lbs/gallon, the pressure at the wellhead would be from 13566-(5*.052*13000) to at the high end 15724-(5*.052*13000), or from 10186 psi to 12344 psi. It all depends on the gas cut in the fluid column and the density of the oil.

Keep in mind, there are a lot of dynamic factors ignored here, (sidehole friction, ECD, and any constrictions in the wellbore) this is just an offhand calculation of a range of static pressures, and not solid as fluid mechanics go.

[SunkenCiv]

:’) Thanks Ernest_at_the_Beach. And happy belated birthday (hope I didn’t let any cats out of any bags).