Odds are about 1-in-3 that a mega-earthquake will hit the Northwest in the next 50 years

Oregon State University ^ | May 24, 2010 | Unknown

[decimon]

CORVALLIS, Ore. – The major earthquakes that devastated Chile earlier this year and which triggered the catastrophic Indonesian tsunami of 2004 are more than just a distinct possibility to strike the Pacific Northwest coast of the United States, scientists say.

There is more than a one-in-three chance that it will happen within the next 50 years.

New analyses by Oregon State University marine geologist Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues have provided fresh insights into the Northwest’s turbulent seismic history – where magnitude 8.2 (or higher) earthquakes have occurred 41 times during the past 10,000 years. Those earthquakes were thought to generally occur every 500 years, but as scientists delve more deeply into the offshore sediments and other evidence, they have discovered a great deal more complexity to the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

“What we’ve found is that Cascadia isn’t one big subduction zone when it comes to major earthquakes,” Goldfinger said. “It actually has several segments – at least four – and the earthquake activity is different depending on where a quake originates. The largest earthquakes occur in the north and usually rupture the entire fault. These are quakes of about magnitude-9 and they are just huge – but they don’t happen as frequently.

“At the southern end of the fault, the earthquakes tend to be a bit smaller, but more frequent,” he added. “These are still magnitude-8 or greater events, which is similar to what took place in Chile, so the potential for damage is quite real.”

[decimon]

Do you expect me to talk, Goldfinger?

[decimon]

Sea Tac Toe ping.

[SamAdams76]

Odds are about 9 out of 10 that this guy will be dead in 50 years and nobody will get to tell him that his prediction was wrong.

[theDentist]

There's a helluva Prediction. Define "Mega"... then, define "Northwest". And no matter how those are defined, even if there is NOT a "mega" quake, they are still right.

I predict that sometime in the next 5 Years, Sen Byrd will die by natural causes or otherwise.

Hey! I'm a Prognosticator!!!

[JRandomFreeper]

in the next 5 Years, Sen Byrd will die

Old Sheets died years ago. He's animated by experimental electric implants based on studies with pithed frogs. Only problem is the pithed frogs had brain matter to work with.

/johnny

[decimon]

...pithed frogs.

What do frogs have to be pithed about?

[albie]

We could be so entrenched in Communism by then that it may come as a relief.

[Snickering Hound]

Could you be just a little more precise? I guess not.

[meadsjn]

In the next hundred years, MORE THAN SIX BILLION PEOPLE WILL DIE!!!

That's a fact.

[Bon mots]

Somehow we will soon find out that Capitalism and big business is to blame for Global Shaking.

[SIDENET]

I hear that the mortality rate will eventually hit 100%.

We're all gonna die!!!

[The Comedian]

The odds are 50/50 that this prediction is completely random.

Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

[NavyCanDo]

I'm not sure where they are getting their 1 in 3 number, but it is true that the Cascadia Subduction Zone is the only major subduction Zone on the entire Pacific Ring of Fire not to receive a major earthquake in the last 50 years. So it is likely the Pacific Northwest is getting closer to it's next Major one.

[bunkerhill7]

Odds are about 1-in-3 that a megalomaniac will hit the floor in the Northwest corner of the White House in the next 2.5 years

[SunkenCiv]

"Don't give me the odds!" -- Han Solo

:') Thanks decimon.

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[ConservativeMind]

I’d say this is credible, especially since these fault lines basically have to have earthquakes along their whole face to keep the tension under control.

If it happens in the south, it will also happen in the north.

[Monkey Face]

I’ve been waiting....

[Monkey Face]

Thanks, Sunny!
Nothing like a Reality Ping to bring me back to Reality!

(I’ll never get out of this world alive!!)

[gleeaikin]

Pithing frogs is what you do to kill them quickly preparatory to dissecting out a muscle to experiment on in a saline solution. I did this for a living for a time. Didn’t like doing it, switched careers.