Posted on 01/18/2010 3:22:11 AM PST by Swordmaker
Legends die hard. In the pre-Web days, they got printed and reprinted, told and retold and so became official, like spinach being good for you because it held the iron your red cells needed. After decades of the disgusting veggie inflicted upon young kids - I remember, a scientist went back to the bench and found out there was no digestible iron whatsoever in spinach. You don’t get calcium by ingesting chalk, you need a calcium compound that’ll get through the sophisticated filters in the digestive system. Eating spinach gives you as much digestible iron as sucking nails.
The spread of legends gets worse with the Web. Stories, I’m avoiding the word “information”, travel fast, I’ll sidestep “light-speed”. Yarns bounce around a world-wide echo chamber. If I hear it from five sources, it must be true. Never mind the so-called sources heard it from one another in sequence. Worse indeed, as the Web never forgets, everything gets cached, archived and will be unearthed by search engines.
This creates a need and entrepreneurs pop out of the quantum vacuum ready to fill it: a Google search reveals at least three companies, reputationrestore.org, reputationrestorer.net and restore-reputation.com who promise to clean up your besmirched Web image. Actually, these three look like the same company and, at the risk of unfairly tarnishing their own rep, they look like one of these only too frequent scams purporting to protect you from scams. Ah well…
So it goes for a tenacious legend, the one that Apple “lost” the market because it failed to license the Mac operating system to “everyone” and thus get to own the market instead of losing it to the “obviously inferior” Microsoft product.
A few days ago, no less than über-blogger Henry Blodget, the Internet Bubble repentito now head of Business Insider blog hub fell for it. This industry observer who admitted he never set foot in an Apple Store, not a sin if your territory is the quick oil-change industry, chides Apple for “making the same mistake again”. In Dear Henry’s view, just like in the 80’s, Apple insists “on selling fully integrated hardware and software devices, instead of focusing on low-cost, widely distributed software”. As a result, Apple will lose to the Open Source Android, just like Apple lost to Microsoft.
I know we shouldn’t let facts get in the way of a good story, but let’s take a closer look at today’s as well as yesterday’s data.
Today, Android is free. This, in effect, sets the market price for smartphone licensing deals. Ask Microsoft. How do you tell Motorola or HTC they ought to fork $25, or $15 for a Windows Mobile license while Android is free (and arguably better…).
In this context, how does Apple charge for the iPhone OS? How do they replace the $400 or so they make per iPhone (approx. $600 they get in direct $199 plus $400 or so in carrier “revenue-share”, minus $180 in hardware costs)? As the joke goes, do they make it back in volume? Or in App Store revenue, an estimated net $500M in 18 months? Great but no match for the tens of billions (multiply 50 million iPhones and iPod touches by $400…) of hardware sales.
Apple could indeed end up “losing” the smartphone market to Android, just as it “loses” the PC market today, making more money than Dell and HP combined, they with a 33% market share and Apple with less than 10%. (More details in the November 1st, 2009 Monday Note.)
Ask GM how they feel about a “tiny” Bavarian automaker.
Of course, Apple can make an inferior product and lose for good. No customers, no market share, no margins. Which isn’t too far from what actually happened with the original Macintosh. I know, I was there.
We’re back in 1981. IBM introduces the PC . At the time, it’s pretty much a clone of the Apple ][, slots, a cassette tape interface, game controls and all. The big difference is a 16-bit Intel processor, the 8086, whose four digits where used for the ending of Microsoft’s original corporate phone number, I’m not kidding. The then reigning Apple ][ has the 8-bit 6502 processor, a dead-end architecture, as the supplier, MOS Technology, can’t provide a credible transition to a 16 or 32-bit world, markitecture BS notwithstanding.
The PC evolves, gets faster with newer Intel CPUs, with the crucial inclusion of a head disk and the even more epoch-making advent of the first “killer app”: Lotus 1-2-3. Written in assembly language, lightning-fast, Lotus 1-2-3 is called an “integrated application”, the rage at the time, as it incorporated a spreadsheet, a word processor and a database. I know, because to some people’s chagrin, in a small cubicle behind my office at Apple, I maintain a PC.
When the Mac comes out in 1984, this is what it faces. The original Mac clearly shows great promise, its user interface is clearly superior and it builds on the lessons learned from Lisa’s failure. (Lisa was Apple’s first bit-mapped screen and mouse driven machine of 1983.)
But the first Mac, for all its promise and sexiness, is slow, buggy, with a small screen, no hard disk, no color and no application software that could compete with Lotus 1-2-3.
When Steve Jobs came back at Apple in 1997, he brought in a team of experienced engineers from NeXT, promptly killed the half-hearted licensing program that was siphoning off the company’s hardware margins - you can’t be in both the hardware and the licensing businesses at the same time. Over the years, a steadily improved product and a tight control of the layers of the user experience, including the Apple Stores, produced the revenue and profits we know.
But legends live on. How about that almost forgotten one? IBM licensed key parts of the original PC design and, for its reward, lost the PC market in spite of its effort to regain control with a new bus architecture, Micro Channel and a new software platform, OS/2, called “better DOS than DOS” and “better Windows than Windows”. —JLG@mondaynote.com
” 1. Worst camera EVER!! For a $600 phone, the iPhone 3Gs has a crappy 3 MP camera with no flash. Every competing device, even at half the price has 5 MP”
Perhaps not the best phone ever, but not bad at all either. Enough resolution for 8x10 pics, and plenty for any web use.
‘”2. No changeable battery! This is a DEAL killer for business travelers. Understand this, the iPhone is a MOBILE computer first and then a phone. If so, then you suck up the battery a lot using it for email or browsing. But, if you are traveling and do not have access to a power port (almost all foriegn airlines/airports) then you are out of luck. Because Lord Jobs has decreed from the Apple Heavens that a battery slot is “not sexy”’
As someone else posted, there’re a lot of third-party solutions for this. I’ve never had an issue with not having a second battery, myself.
“3. No haptic feedback. Since Lord Jobs has banned keyboards it would have been nice to have Haptic feedback on the screen. But no, it is not so”
Not so far, at least. I think you’re being too hard on Apple here, though, you should at least give it credit for the first touchscreen interface that people really like. Even for the calculator app and dialing, I’ve been impressed with how well the touchscreen works.
“5. AT&T. Clearly a communist company because no capitalist company would want to alienate its customers like AT&T does. But, oh wait, the iPhone is ONLY available on AT&T in the US”
I’ve been surprised at how long Apple has stuck with AT&T as an exclusive, but I doubt it will go on a whole lot longer with the Android phones on the market. I was happy to see 3G appear in my area here lately, and you can indeed surf the web while talking which is nice.
“6. Slow as Molasses. Ever tried to use your iPhone when it is downloading emails. About dead as a donkey. No surprise cause it has an old and slow processor. All the new phones have the 1 Ghz mobile processor”
First off, as a “software engineer” you should know that clock speed is far from everything with device performance. Personally I’ve not been troubled by my “slow” iPhone 3G.
“7. No multithreading. Talking about sloooooooow, there is no multi-tasking on this “computer”, something my Windows 3.1 PC had. So, now you can only run one app at a time. God forbid if you have to switch between apps.”
That’s funny. I’m able to talk on the phone, and use the web browser at the same time. I can listen to music while using any app that doesn’t use sound. I have NEVER wished “gee why don’t I have background apps”.
“8. No built in IM tool. There is NO instant messenger built in. Imagine that! In today’s day and age where literally entire distributed companies live on IM, Apple discourages it as “it takes up battery time”. So you have to use sucky third party apps”
LOL! Yeah, all those “sucky third party apps” have sure hurt the iPhone, haven’t they? On the contrary, the App Store is one of the strongest things about the platform.
‘Long term, Apple will continue the death spiral that it was on. It only revived because in the US, trendy people were willing to pay TWICE as much as a PC to buy a product that was the same. Now, with this recession, the number of people wanting “trendy” luxury PCs will come down’
You fail to see a large part of the Apple value proposition. Most of the time, it’s products really do “just work”. On the Mac side, it’s very nice to not have the multitude of security concerns that exist on the PC, plus the bundled apps really do provide a ton of added value. On the iPhone side of things, the only “real” competitor is Android, which is already suffering from version drift and incompatibility across various devices.
In a bad economy, Apple will introduce a few lower-priced products, as it’s doing. BMW will probably introduce a couple lower-priced cars as well. However, the value proposition for both companies doesn’t depend so much on price...and they’ll continue to kill the margins of the mass-market companies.
I expect Apple to continue to do very well, and the iSlate will only help the bottom line.
If I had wanted to compare an iPhone to an older generation smart phone that had multi threading then I would have compared it to any old Windows Mobile phones that have had multi threading now for over 6 years with nary a battery issue. While we are at it, those ANTIQUE phones also had cut and paste, which the iPhone just acquired months ago
I am not saying Windows Mobile is the be all or end all. In fact I specifically posted that right now it is anyone's game. However, fanboy uber love or not, iPhone with its current non licensing and high HW pricing will lose the battle.
Google may win. Windows Mobile 7 may win (lower odds than Google). Or something new may win.
Thanks, I sent it, round about comment number 11 and info keeps coming.
Then, he proceed to snap those parts together like Lego blocks -- on stage and on camera -- and turned it on -- and had a running Mac!
On the way back to the car, we all agreed that we had just witnessed one of the most spectacular examples of industrial design we had ever seen -- and that we had been introduced to a beautiful product none of us could afford, and for which none of use could see a practical use!
Heck, IIRC, the battery was bigger and heavier than the one on my motorcyle!
At any rate, John-Louis Gassée made it all very entertaining... [-)
great response
And there are many different makers of similar products.
I've yet to see a successful touch-screen with "haptic" (that's "tactile" for those of you in Rio Linda...) feedback -- have you?
Who would know if Apple makes money, they never pay dividend.
Ummmm..., perhaps from having no debt and having billions of dollars in the bank... LOL...
[that's "billions" with a "b"... now... :-) ...]
Instead, Apple brought back Steve Jobs and he knew what to do in order to make wildly successful products and make the company wonderfully successful and to give the consumers the excellent products that they have from Apple.
Steve Jobs talking with Bill Gates
My son is an Apple fan. For the life of me, and can’t understand this article, so I won’t send it to him until I do. Is there a one sentence explanation as to whether the author has a clue.
Well, just "in general" -- it's saying that Apple won't succeed making their "hardware" and selling their "software", too (Mac OS X) -- as many of the so-called computer-industry pundits criticize Apple for not doing. Those pundits basically don't understand that Apple is primarily a hardware company that uses its software to support their business in hardware.
BUT, considering that this guy is French..., I understand why it's a confusing article... :-)
Jean-Louis Gassée may be smart and a supporter of Apple, but that doesn't mean he knows how to write a good article...
NO! The article does not make sense. It is typical Apple BS.
And..., your comments are also typical anti-Apple yada, yada, yada... LOL... so what's new?
Now, I would agree that this article is not from a good writer... I'll grant that much, but what he's trying to say, being the awful writer that he is (from what I see here) -- is true enough...
But, in your case, I don't know what your excuse is for the typical anti-Apple yada, yada, yada... :-)
Apple lost because it's hardware was worse than the first IBM PC, not because it didn't license its software as per Microsoft.
From where I'm sitting, it doesn't look like Apple lost... LOL...
I mean, we've got Apple's wonderful desktops and laptops, we've got the iTunes software and the iTunes store (for music, the largest music retailer in the U.S.), we've got the iPhone and the iPhone app store, and I hear we're going to have the Tablet, pretty soon, and I'll be interested to see how Apple goes about making this one a roaring success too.
I mean... other companies should "fail" as marvelously as Apple has.... :-)
We’re back in 1981. IBM introduces the PC . At the time, it’s pretty much a clone of the Apple ][, slots, a cassette tape interface, game controls and all. The big difference is a 16-bit Intel processor, the 8086,...The original IBM PC used a 4.77 MHz 8088 processor. While it was, internally at least, a 16-bitter, its interface was eight bits.
Value added suppliers are a big part of gaining support for a product. I would venture to guess that add on sales exceed the original product value.
the auditors... the fact that they pay their bills, buy other companies for cash. They have $36 billion in cash in the bank. Their stock is climbing as a growth stock. All of these are signs they are making money, hand over fist.
Dispelling the myth that Apple would have been successful if they had licensed their Operating System like Microsoft:
"When Steve Jobs came back at Apple in 1997, he brought in a team of experienced engineers from NeXT, promptly killed the half-hearted licensing program that was siphoning off the company’s hardware margins - you can’t be in both the hardware and the licensing businesses at the same time. Over the years, a steadily improved product and a tight control of the layers of the user experience, including the Apple Stores, produced the revenue and profits we know."
The pixel count war should have stopped long ago. It's the equivalent to the Intel megahertz race, where their processors had a higher clock speed, but were actually slower. If the CCD elements and other bits in the camera suck, the pictures are going to suck in comparison to the lower-megapixel camera with quality sensors.
No changeable battery!
I complain when there is a changeable battery, with all that wasted space in the phone. There are options for that small minority who actually need it.
No haptic feedback.
That's probably coming since Apple has patents on under-screen feedback (not just running the vibrate when you hit a key).
AT&T.
AT&T was the only company willing to take a gamble on the game-changing iPhone. In return for the risk, AT&T gets exclusivity. IIRC, Apple had approached Verizon, which turned it down, so instead of complaining about AT&T, complain to Verizon for being so short-sighted.
Slow as Molasses.
Slower, but not all that slow. But remember, with the speed of some of these phones comes low battery life.
No multithreading.
Lots of multithreading. What you're thinking about is multitasking. The iPhone actually does multi-task, but it just won't let multiple user apps multitask. This is a design decision for simplicity, stability and battery life.
God forbid if you have to switch between apps.
You can still do that. It basically pauses the non-used app instead of letting it run.
No built in IM tool.
You already know the reason.
No, I am not anti-Apple. I own the iPhone. However, I am Anti Cult for sure.
I purchase technology because it makes sense. When Apple had a great product (original iPhone in 2007) it made sense to buy it. Now, Apple is behind the times and is making the same mistakes it made with the original Mac back in the 1980s
Fact is if LG, HTC, Seimens, Sony, Motorola, HP, Dell and 10 other manufacturers start putting out tens of millions of Andriod phones (to pick an OS for example), all of the Apps will be built on them
Already, yesterday, a report came out that states the App momentum is with Android
In the end the “open” system will win. PERIOD. Capitalism guarantees that. If you have a software that hundreds of manufacturers can make a product with and sell, then over time nothing can beat them.
Responses like yours show a cult like behavior where you think ONE manufacturer is somehow going to survive over the marketplace because they are “special”
They are not. Apple is not special. Neither is Microsoft. Nor Google.
Difference is that both Microsoft and Google are getting hundreds of partners while Apple will battle alone.
Retread of the 1980s all over again.
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