Apple IPad/iSLate/iTablet Prognostication Ping!
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Posted on 01/03/2010 3:35:38 AM PST by Swordmaker
Here is Joe Wilcox's take about the Apple iPhone from a similar time three years ago:
January 10, 2007 12:00 PM
Where's the 'You' in iPhone?
Steve Jobs must have broadcast some wicked reality distortion field yesterday. Even some of my colleagues got caught by it.
Apple's CEO was in near-perfect form during the Macworld keynote, as he unveiled the long-anticipated iPhone. Apple is getting tons of rave responses--and for a product that isn't scheduled to ship for six months.
Colleague David Morgenstern rains praises on Apple's approach to user design: "Apple's team in Cupertino has stopped the market with this product." David makes some astute observations about Apple's approach to details that matter.
But I see some glaring oversights when it comes to other details that are going to matter more, basics like battery life and durability. I predict some big problems for the iPhone, once people start using it for more than 5 or 10 minutes with Apple executives expectantly standing close by.
The phone is beautiful, the user interface is breathtaking and Jobs is ever so charming and convincing when the sell is harder than it appears to be.
David knows the problem: "I admit that it can be hard to check reality while in the bubble of a Steve Jobs Macworld demo. He is the master of such demonstrations and the Mac-phile crowd hangs on every word from his gigantic projected mouth seen on the tall-and-wide screen in the Moscone Center."
So, what's wrong with iPhone--a device I admittedly haven't seen close up? Distance may be why I have clearer perspective.
It's a work of art. What's that saying about how looks can be deceiving? The iPhone looks good, but it may not be rugged enough. The beautiful iPhone, with one full side the screen, is sure to be marred by everyday use. But the user will expect the beauty to remain, not fade. Apple took huge flak over the original iPod nano, because it was easily scratched; surely the iPhone would receive no less reaction.
People hang masterpieces, not put them in their pockets or purses.
Even if the iPhone proves to be scratch-resistant, which I strongly doubt, fingerprints and smudges will leave impressions. Sure, they can be wiped away, but who would want them? Mmm, I wonder what will be the long-term impact of stubble or full-grown beards rubbing against the touch-screen.
More troubling are user expectations about ruggedness. Most cell phones are pretty tough. How often are they dropped? It's not hard to imagine what could happen to the iPhone's screen when dropped on the pavement from someone's pocket or purse.
The battery is fixed. It's my understanding that the iPhone's battery is not removable, which bucks against sensible cell phone manufacturing convention. Battery life is important in a mobile. Heck, Cingular supplied two batteries with my Samsung BlackJack, and I easily get about 5 hours of talk time.
Battery life is complicated by functionality. By branding the device a phone, Apple made telephony the core functionality and user priority. The other functions are going to sap battery life. I agree with David that Apple gets the small usability details right, but that's an approach that could work against the iPhone. There are plenty of multifunction phones out there, but usability limitations restrict realistic usage beyond a couple features. The iPhone's great usability will make several, battery-draining functions appealing to use. The cross-country plane flight that drains an iPod battery is going to be a liability for a telephony device with fixed battery.
It's not a phone. Whatever iPhone is, it's not a mobile phone, nor should it really be marketed as one. The marketing should have been as a fifth-generation iPod. Apple kept the focus on the primary functionality of music, positioning video as an extra benefit; it's not primary. Better marketing would have been: It's an iPod with a touch-screen--oh, and it's a phone, too. As a phone, the main expectations will be around telephony, with music and other stuff as extras.
The device concept is brilliant and trend-setting for an iPod or a versatile and affordable pocket computer. A small computer carries different expectations about durability, which could have benefited user expectations about iPhone. Even the roughest users surely must treat their laptops more gingerly than their cell phones. The laptop screen is understandably breakable.
The features are all the same regardless of the positioning: phone, iPod or mini-Mac. But the user expectations change based on which function is marketed as primary.
The price is high. The iPhone costs too much for most people. Even the overly energetic and enthusiastic Macworld audience seemed to silence at the price. In the United States, people expect free or nearly free phones.
As example: Cingular only sells two phones for more than $250, the Cingular 8525 and Palm Treo 750. Both phones sell for around $400, after $100 rebates. The iPhone will sell for $499 or $599, depending on whether it's a 4GB or 8GB model.
For a mini-Mac, $600 is a bargain. Usage creates different expectations about price.
My former JupiterResearch colleague Michael Gartenberg and I discussed the phone this morning. "As you know, no one pays for expensive phones here, but they do pay for expensive iPods," he said.
His comment supports my earlier contention that Apple should have positioned the device as a touch-screen iPod that also is a cell phone. That said, Gartenberg disagreed about initial response to the pricing.
"The masses with $500 are going to not care at all," Gartenberg said. "They'll see this thing and make it the must-have item for 2007." He added that Apple was "brilliant to price it high."
If price and beauty are the definition of chic, he could be right. But the "masses with $500" may also have great expectations about the iPhone staying crisp and scratch-free.
Data speed is insufficient.. As a mini-Mac, the iPhone offers many data-centric features. But the device only supports Cingular's EDGE network, rather than 3G. The aforementioned Windows Mobile-based Cingular 8525 and Palm Treo 750 are both 3G devices. While Wi-Fi makes up for some of what's missing, EDGE diminishes the iPhone's appeal compared with 3G devices. Connectivity is probably the least of the iPhone's usability shortcomings.
Users expectations will be too high. Apple's iPod success, rumors leading up to the Macworld announcement and the device itself foster unrealistic expectations about the iPhone experience.
Even if Apple delivers an exceptional experience--the "Wow" Microsoft touts in Windows Vista marketing--expectations could be even higher. Durability, ruggedness and battery life are fundamentals Apple should have given greater priority. New features like the face-proximity sensor are only as good as basics like battery life. One or two fatal flaws can cripple an otherwise breakthrough device.
Time to market is another consideration. June is so far away, even for Apple, which tends to announce closer to product availability. Apple's fanatic product secrecy and insistence on controlling all messaging are the real reason for such an early announcement. The FCC approval process would have disclosed the iPhone--before Jobs could do his show and tell--unless Apple announced it many months before availability.
Six months is an enormous amount of time for a device people want today. The hype is now, so the time to sell is now. Motorola announced the breakthrough Q a long time before its availability with Verizon. The Q didn't look as breakthrough when released, because other manufacturers responded and consumers' memories are short. Today's rock star is tomorrow's geriatric rocker.
Better stated: The reality distortion field will fade. People will come back to their senses and ask what really matters to them in a mobile. The answers will be basics, like good telephony, long battery life, small size and low price. Which of these attributes apply to the iPhone?
And even closer to the iPhone's release when more people had hands on experience with it, Joe Wilcox's take was still almost completely negative:
June 11, 2007 3:57 PM
An iPhone Skeptic Speaks Out
Apple's iPhone generates even more buzz with today's Apple World Wide Developer Conference kickoff. Behind the buzz, is anyone really asking who will—or perhaps won't—buy iPhone?
It's time for a reality check, assuming the effects of Apple Kool-Aid ever wears off. Many bloggers, financial analysts and reporters are absolutely giddy with anticipation and predictions about iPhone's enormous success. As anticipation about the product reaches escape velocity, gravity may yet pull it to earth. How's that for a mixed metaphor?
I'll preface this post by saying that I haven't held or used an iPhone, which might help my impartiality but limits any first-hand knowledge. On paper, the iPhone isn't a sure thing, and there are some fundamental problems that Apple Kool-Aid drinkers have ignored.
In January, I laid out six problems with the iPhone. I'll reaffirm those after offering some fresh perspective.
Market out of synch?
Apple's sales pitch is all mass marketing, but the iPhone is not a mass-market device—at least in the United States. Some overseas markets are quite friendly to multifunction phones but, for now, Apple will only offer iPhone in North America.
Who will buy iPhone? Based on a Solutions Research Group study (PDF), the iPhone will appeal to the same buyers as other pricey, high-tech gadgets: young men. In a survey of 1,230 people, those "who are definitely interested [in the iPhone] at $499" are:
- 72 percent male
- Average age: 31
- Living in households with average income of $75,600 (or 26 percent above the national average)
- 58 percent college-educated (43 percent is the average)
- Most likely to live in California or New York
- Unlikely to own an iPod (48 percent)
Now, seeing as how the iPhone is a pretty device, I assume—and I assume lots—that the most likely early adopters will be the group of so-called technosexuals.
I haven't seen other analyst reports, but based on Apple's marketing and CEO Steve Jobs' comments, the iPhone's buying demographic is unexpected—or maybe not. The demographic nicely fits other high-tech toys, even the original iPod. The iPhone is a high-end, high-tech ego-boosting gadget for the young jet set. That is no mass-market demographic.
Last week Peter Burrows of Business Week predicted that the iPhone would be a $10 billion business. Burrows' commentary is just one example of the many blogs and news stories that presume the iPhone will be a huge success and that everyone will want one.
On the contrary, the initial market looks to be quite limited, if the SRG report is remotely indicative of buyers—even if Apple sells 3 million units this year, as some analysts have forecast.
Cheap or free phones define the U.S. market. AT&T lists about 90 phones on its Web site, 10 of which are free, and 20 others that cost less than $30. Only one phone costs more than $300 and none cost anywhere close to the iPhone's $499 or $599 price, unless the carrier should offer a significant subsidy.
No Real World Test Yet
How early adopters respond to the iPhone could affect all-around sales. There are several technical hurdles Apple will have to clear for the iPhone experience to match the hype. Apple's challenge: expectations, which the company and all those Kool-Aid drinkers have set very high. As such, even small flaws will be noticed and magnified—and the subsequent degree of disappointment will likely be equal to the intensity of the early excitement. The iPhone has the potential for a high disappointment level because of the high expectations. Unless, of course, Apple gets everything right.
Potential usability problems relating to expectations (some I highlighted in January):
- Ruggedness: Cell phones are pretty tough devices, and there is plenty of user experience to create the expectation that the iPhone should still look good after a day's or year's use. The device is all screen and the back metal, both of which are plenty scratchable on Apple's iPods. Will the iPhone really be better? I can't say without seeing the so-called protective shield for the screen. What happens when the user drops an iPhone face down on the gravel, or the mobile slips out of a pocket or purse for a bounce across the pavement? Beauty marred is more noticeable.
- Battery life: The iPhone battery is fixed, meaning that it can't be replaced. One plane ride watching videos on the device could sap the battery, which means no phone until the device is recharged. Apple pushes the iPhone as a multifunctional device, and the SRG survey reveals intended buyers that are most likely interested in such a product. But will their geek toy demands push the iPhone's battery life limits? We will see.
- Multi-touch: Apple's touch-screen demos well, but how will it hold up for continued use? Except for maybe text messaging, most other cell phones are one-handed devices, including most smart phones. The iPhone is a decidedly two-handed device. It's easy enough to find out whether the device will be convenient by practicing using two hands on one's own phone.
- No physical keys: Like multi-touch, the touch-screen numerical keys may become tiring over prolonged use. Jobs is a brilliant marketer who takes great pains to emphasize product strengths. His demos focus more on the broader features rather than on telephony. A cell phone should be great at telephony before anything else. The touch-screen, while conceptually a great user interface, may be limiting. I can't say either way, because Apple has the iPhone locked up until June 29. Even then, early adopters will have to use the device for a while to see whether no keys will be a hit, a miss or something in between.
- Crowded market: The Kool-Aid drinkers seem to forget that 1 billion cell phones are sold each year, the majority with Symban OS and a huge number outside the United States. Apple says it has a better cell phone and lots of people seem to believe the company's marketing. Sight unseen. Apple's market will be limited by consumer buying habits (that's free phones in the United States); North America-only distribution; entrenched and successful cell phone manufacturers; and all the logistical problems of entering into a new product category, such as availability. Let's say Apple has some good U.S. success and sells, say, 10 million iPhones in 2008, that's a tiny percentage of 1 billion devices. You do the math; it's easy enough.
I don't suggest that iPhone will flop, although I am skeptical about its long-term prospects compared to the current inflated expectations. But I do mean to throw a little cold water on the Kool-Aid drinkers and wake them up from their dream state.
He also claims that the iPhone has no chance of winning the smart phone wars, based on a prediction by Gartner that Symbian and Android phones would sell 196 million and 95 million smart phones to a mere 71 million Apple iPhones in 2012 as though numbers pulled out of someone's nose were real, accurate, proven numbers... and ignoring the drastic drop in Nokia's market share:
iPhone cannot win the smartphone wars
By Joe Wilcox | Published October 27, 2009, 3:00 PM
I'm going to make a bold prediction: Apple's iPhone will lose the mobile device wars. Such statement will send some iPhone fans howling -- perhaps appropriately so with the full moon days passed and Halloween days away. :)
Put another way: iPhone is to Android -- and somewhat Symbian OS -- handsets as Macintosh was to the DOS/Windows PC in the 1980s and 1990s. The Mac's rocky start in 1984-85 gave way to great success because of several killer applications, with desktop publishing being among the most important. But by the mid 1990s, Windows PCs pushed down Mac market share. The iPhone is poised to track similarly. Gartner predicts that Android OS shipments will exceed iPhone OS by 2012 (see chart). I'm a believer. . .
Read more complete idiotic prognostication in the original article.
With a track record like this, I would not put to much credence in Wilcox's predictions on Apple's potential for the iTablet/iSlate/iPad...
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This clown continues to probe that fine line between “Blogger” and “Crank.”
But I do think Apple could do it.
This guy assumes way to much. I have an iPhone and I can’t use it except for the most casual browsing.
If the tablet is nice and thin and very portable it will find a wide market for the millions of us who can’t use small devices but don’t want to keep hauling out a notebook-type PC.
I want an Internet connected gadget with Firefox equivalent browser, pdf reader, e-book reader, a better Kindle than Kindle, good battery life with a readable size full color touchscreen so I’m waiting for an Apple Tablet. If Apple can’t do it then nobody can.
2much4now
I already ruined one laptop by spilling a cup of coffee on the keyboard. I'm looking for a tablet computer that will work as my "newspaper" in the morning and be somewhat immune to an occasional splash of coffee.
Steve Jobs may have a real winner here.
I remember when Apple released the iPod back in 2001. A lot of scorn was heaped upon Apple by these so-called experts. I remember hearing "Who the heck would want to carry around 1,000 songs in their pocket? How many people even own 1,000 songs!..."
On the contrary I think there is a market for a PDA sized (like my old Palm Tungsten E2) or slightly larger device. Maybe 4” x 6”, that’s thin and light and 100% screen. Frankly I’m not sure I would want a device like that to be a phone as well, but with internet of course you could send messages or run skype if it had a cam. The reason is I had a real purpose for my Palm and it was great having something I could write on like paper with a stylus, run applications including office apps like excel, etc. Plus quite frankly there are times when it would look better to be holding a flat greeting card/paperback book size device: in church I would like to read along with the Mass reading and holding a device like that would look normal as compared to holding my pre people are going to think I’m on the phone or goofing around. While I love my palm pre, given a choice I think I would rather have a less fancy phone and have a PDA with a virtual keyboard in landscape mode.
And one more thing- he makes comparisons to the Kindle but frankly the Kindle with the electronic ink I think is in a class by itself. The Kindle is a book with changeable content. Nobody looks at the Kindle as a computer.
Possibly the “phone” part of the device you could have a bluetooth or wireless earpiece/headset with mic for calls. That is the only point the guy makes that’s valid is the cost of having 2 data plans if you have a phone and a tablet.
Thing is, Apple’s got experience with how to do it. They got close with the larger Newtons of the past, but the hardware really wasn’t up to it.
One of the keys is going to be handwriting recognition that doesn’t suck. Apple is in possession of what is probably the most effective handwriting recognition anyone’s ever seen; lots of people have been wondering why Apple’s been telling literally everyone that they wouldn’t license the tech despite the fact that it was ‘dead’. Apple has licensed discarded tech in the past to others, but Newton tech (specifically the Apple handwriting recognition software built off of ParaGraph CalliGrapher) has been in the “no, you cant have it” category since the Newton was killed.
More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton_OS#Handwriting_recognition
The first hint of what it was going to be used was when Steve Jobs pointed out the new Asian character interpreter that came with iPhone 3.0. You simply drew the ideograph on screen and it recognized it. The render process looked identical to how the Newton did it. Looks like CalliGrapher’s offspring is back.
One of the problems with tablets is that they do not lend themselves well to on screen keyboards, so you want to use some sort of handwriting recognition. Well, Microsoft’s offerings in this department are truly abysmal and most people give up and go to pecking with the stylus on a virtual keyboard, something that takes forever due to the form factor. The Linux/FOSS community has come up with nothing to compete with it. So tablets haven’t taken off because they are difficult and clunky to use. Hmmmm..... Now where have I seen that scenario before... maybe in the smartphone market, few years back? How was that resolved, again? :D
Today, the only use of the parent tech that Apple built Newton 2’s handwriting recognition off of is in custom Lockheed Martin (and other) tablets used by package delivery services like UPS or FedEx and some other similar custom applications. For some reason, nobody else has seen fit to use the tech in their tablets. And given Microsoft’s glacial pace (because, let’s face it, Linux tablets aren’t going to fly for average users any time soon), that probably won’t change for a while, if ever. For that matter, Microsoft hasn’t seen any reason to do any real work on their tablet OS variants in years.
What’s their failure record on that now? 0-4-1 for Apple product category predictions since the iPod came out?
It appears to me that Joe Wilcox is one big RIMFIRE.
His type predicted Japanese imported cars would never sell, no one would buy Starbucks coffee at that price, Home Depot would be for contractors only and not everyday consumers, musicians and record moguls would never go for iTunes, those white earbuds were lousy making ipods unsellable...
If you build it, they will multi-touch.
The Graffiti 2 (I think it was called) on my Palm E2 was excellent.
Graffiti has been used on tablets a few times and IMHO it is better than some of the Microsoft efforts, but it requires the user to adapt to a strict set of special strokes when writing. Fine, but let me put it to you this way.
Newton 2 devices could read doctors’ handwriting and my signature correctly. Written in cursive, exactly as if on paper.
No general purpose recognizer intended for use by the general public has been able to do that before or since.
That was my point. They only use the tech to parse your signature, and mostly they fail unless you print.
You left out that CDs would never take off and that DVD would never replace VHS or laserdiscs.
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