Posted on 07/08/2009 7:43:01 AM PDT by kevkrom
Let's, for a moment, simply take for granted that Sarah Palin will run as a Republican for President in 2012 and win the party's nomination. (A similar exercise can be done for other candidates of choice, of course.)
The question that needs to be answered is: how does she win? That is, what is the path to 270+ electoral votes?
I think it would be a safe assumption to say that Palin would win every state McCain won, so she starts with 173 EV right there: Alabama Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (4/5), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
Barring a total landslide, what states are total lost causes? I'd say: California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine (3/4), Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. (Total: 189 EV)
That leaves the preliminary "battleground" (defined as "states Obama won but are not certain for him in 2012") as:
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Indiana 11
Iowa 7
Michigan 17
Nebraska (1/5)
Maine (1/4)
Minnesota 10
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5
North Carolina 15
Ohio 20
Pennsylvania 21
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
So, where to get 97 or more EV? Okay, first of all, to have any chance, Palin needs to turn IN, NC, and VA back red (39 down, 58 to go). Under the "must win two of FL/OH/PA" principle, assume she needs FL and OH, that's another 47. So we're down to 9.
Where can she get them? Any one of CO, MN, or WI would be enough.
So, Palin's path to victory includes: all McCain states, FL, IN, NC, OH, VA, and one of CO/MN/WI. Can she do it? If so, how?
I disagree. The better analogy would be starting to put in place the deals, ahead of the last-minute trade deadline, to shore up your pitching rotation so that you give yourself a fighting chance if you do make the Series. (Especially if you're already one of favorites to win your LCS.)
She devotes the next 3 years to travel, raising funds, helping conservatives win and building a power base. She chooses the right running mate. Haley barbour will be termed out just in time. He doesn’t help in many of the states up for grabs, but 3 years from now, we might be so desperate to get a conservative into the WH as we were with Reagan that it won’t matter much. Barbour has been there, big time, in the RNC in the revolution and has a lot of clout - might take FL. Let’s also not forget there is a good chance that OH is not stolen again, PA grabs it’s guns and bibles and heads for the voting booth and that all of the conservatives that sat on their asses in the last election go and vote for a real candidate that shares their values.
New Mexico 5, not ungettable, Florida 27, absolutely gettable, Ohio 20, Pennsylvania 21, and Virginia 13 and North Carolina 15. Done.
Agreed that she needs to take over the GOP, because the Rino's have subverted it.
Sarah needs to bring the GOP back to Reagan conservatism.
If Sarah continues her roll, the rinos will be jumping ship or changing their spots like you would not believe.
It will be get with us or GET OUT!!!!
A gop win in 2012 is hinged upon what the Obama fasination factor is come election day in Nov. If he is still seen as the ‘one’ then it won’t make much difference which candidate the GOP puts up for the slaughter. If he has lost his luster then you can begin to play what ifs among the various states.....
As I said, the parts that are densely populated are blue, and are culturally hostile to Palin (i.e. they’d be even bluer if she got the nomination, as soft Republican suburbanites found themselves unwilling to vote for her).
Certainly possible.
I also think people should consider doing similar analysis for any of the potential “players” in the GOP primaries. It’s sobering to see what the mountain to climb is — for example, can anyone make a good case for Huckabee or Romney to get the McCain states plus what they need to get over the top?
I can’t. The only way I see either of them winning is for people to be voting against Obama, not for the opponent, and that’s not a winning strategy (c.f. Bob Dole).
How to win. I think the female vote could do it. Remember the PUMAs. I think Sarah could draw alot of the female voters. Especially if Obama goes negative on her.
The base. All you have to do is go back and replay some of her campaign appearances. She rocked the house every time. And now that she's at the top of the ticket. It will be shock and awe.
Here’s my thoughts. IF the idiots in D.C. manage to pass Cap and Tax Palin is a shoe in to grab IN (11); MI (17); OH (20); PA (21). These are states heavily invested in the coal industry which Cap and Tax will kill. These are also states which depend heavily on fossil fuels for heating in Winter. If this thing passes and the residents of these states see their energy bill increasing by the boatload - yeah - Palin gets them. Its sad that some of the neanderthal Obama voters living in these states will have to freeze to death in the winter first to wake up but it’ll happen if rats tax their energy use. Trust me on this one. So that’s an additional 68 right there.
Then if the idiots in Congress pass the health care monstrosity and the seniors in Florida discover they have been sent to the back of the bus in receiving any kind of healthcare Palin runs away with Florida and gets and additional 27 EVs for a total of 95. My calculation puts the total now at 284; more than enough.
So basically how I see it is how much farther into the ditch the rats in Congress manage to dig for themselves between now and 2012. If they keep digging the way they are I don’t think even ACORN, dead people, illegals, and manufactured votes is going to pull them out of the gutter.
Unfortunately, most of the people live in the DC, Richmond, and Hampton Roads suburbs.
Ultimately, her problem at a national level is that her base is concentrated in states that the GOP would win if it nominated Osama bin Laden, and she lacks appeal to voters outside that base.
Remember Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny? Those turned out to be equally relevant to the real world.
Palin by putting herself out there as a potential runner so early will give her the time to become familiar with all the issues and polish her style. I really do believe that 2012 hangs on Obama really screwing up, but the GOP has to make a rightward lurch even if it doesn’t go back to the Reaganism of the 1980s.
Secondly, she has to prove to many voters that she isn't a religious nut. I'm not saying that she can't be religious, but she can't be weird, such as Pentecostal.
Possible. But the problem with "third world countries" is that they tend to make themselves self-perpetuating with elections, real or sham.
Factor in that by 2012 BO will have wrecked the economy and we will have massive social unrest. Then factor in a woman who is articulate, energetic, courageous, and who knows what it means to work for a living.
IOW, if there is a wave coming that could sweep 0 out of office, Palin is poised to ride it. If there isn't, we're stuck with 0 anyway.
You really should get that Palin Derangement Syndrome checked out. It’s not good for your health.
Feel free to assume that ... but it's probably a bad assumption.
For somebody with negatives as high as Palin has among the general population (as opposed to her standing among star-struck conservatives), you should more properly assume that every state is in play for the Democrats.
You know as well as I do that "real world" considerations have no bearing on how these folks view sarah Palin's chances.
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