Posted on 07/08/2009 7:43:01 AM PDT by kevkrom
Let's, for a moment, simply take for granted that Sarah Palin will run as a Republican for President in 2012 and win the party's nomination. (A similar exercise can be done for other candidates of choice, of course.)
The question that needs to be answered is: how does she win? That is, what is the path to 270+ electoral votes?
I think it would be a safe assumption to say that Palin would win every state McCain won, so she starts with 173 EV right there: Alabama Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (4/5), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
Barring a total landslide, what states are total lost causes? I'd say: California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine (3/4), Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. (Total: 189 EV)
That leaves the preliminary "battleground" (defined as "states Obama won but are not certain for him in 2012") as:
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Indiana 11
Iowa 7
Michigan 17
Nebraska (1/5)
Maine (1/4)
Minnesota 10
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5
North Carolina 15
Ohio 20
Pennsylvania 21
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
So, where to get 97 or more EV? Okay, first of all, to have any chance, Palin needs to turn IN, NC, and VA back red (39 down, 58 to go). Under the "must win two of FL/OH/PA" principle, assume she needs FL and OH, that's another 47. So we're down to 9.
Where can she get them? Any one of CO, MN, or WI would be enough.
So, Palin's path to victory includes: all McCain states, FL, IN, NC, OH, VA, and one of CO/MN/WI. Can she do it? If so, how?
Also, ideas on how she would make the theoretical path an actual one would be good.
It’s way too early to start this analysis. Lots can happen between now Nov 2012.
Virginia and North Carolina are out of reach -- the trend toward increasingly upscale suburbanization (the sort of voters who reject Palin even if they're otherwise Republican) will be even more entrenched in 2012. I'm not sufficiently familiar with Florida to be sure, but I get the impression that the same is true there.
It is too early but interesting none the less.
She'll never advance anything by going into the "black hole" of third party loserdom.
The way to beat the two-party system is to subvert it, not oppose it. I.e., take over one of the parties.
This, of course, is assuming the Electoral college still exists in 2012.
Her only chance is to, like Reagan, slap the Republican Party back into line. A timely reminder of how critical FL could be, however, and so a caution to those Freepers set to turn on her if she’s so much as spoken by phone with Crist.
Those last three states are tough. But if people generally want Obama out he will lose those and more.
I think she’d have a fairly good chance at winning Michigan. Jenny Granholm has turned this state into a third world country. Add to that the government take over of the auto industry, and Michigan is ripe for the plucking. Its a big outdoor state, including hunting and fishing. Sarah’s common sense approach could turn Michigan red.
Virginia is not as “blue” as you may think, steve. Obama did not blow out the state, but squeaked by, courtesy of Hampton Roads. Palin has tremendous support in the southern and western parts of the state and in the Shenandoah Valley. She can win the state back, especially since McDonnell is currently 6 points ahead of Deeds for the governor’s office. Rumor has it that she will be coming down soon to campaign for McDonnell.
True. But it's important to have an idea of what kind of challenge awaits. The specifics may change (the 2010 census could change the EVs per state, for example) as well as the climate.
But the fact remains -- for Palin (or any other GOP challenger, for that matter), the planning needs to start now on how to address the most critical issue of all: 270 or more EV.
If McDonnell wins, and Palin is seen as being a major part of that, then I think VA becomes a lock for her.
this is like trying to figure out pitching match ups for the World Series in July when the Series is not until October.
its just nuts
They need the rest of us conservatives to support, work and fund THEM - not the other way around!
GO Sarah GO!
And when one of the dozen or so so-called "conservative" 3rd parties cracks 2%, get back to me.
Congess will rename it “The Michael Jackson Memorial Election Sysytem” and it will only be allowed to elect democrats from then on.
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