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To: kevkrom
Palin needs to turn IN, NC, and VA back red (39 down, 58 to go). Under the "must win two of FL/OH/PA" principle, assume she needs FL and OH, that's another 47.

Virginia and North Carolina are out of reach -- the trend toward increasingly upscale suburbanization (the sort of voters who reject Palin even if they're otherwise Republican) will be even more entrenched in 2012. I'm not sufficiently familiar with Florida to be sure, but I get the impression that the same is true there.

4 posted on 07/08/2009 7:48:08 AM PDT by steve-b (Intelligent design is to evolutionary biology what socialism is to free-market economics.)
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To: steve-b

Virginia is not as “blue” as you may think, steve. Obama did not blow out the state, but squeaked by, courtesy of Hampton Roads. Palin has tremendous support in the southern and western parts of the state and in the Shenandoah Valley. She can win the state back, especially since McDonnell is currently 6 points ahead of Deeds for the governor’s office. Rumor has it that she will be coming down soon to campaign for McDonnell.


11 posted on 07/08/2009 7:52:00 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: steve-b
United States presidential election in Virginia, 2008


19 posted on 07/08/2009 7:56:51 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: steve-b
If Palin, or any Republican, has a chance to beat 0 in 2012 it will be because he fails comprehensively and obviously. If that happens, and the odds favor it strongly at the moment, the political landscape will have shifted to the point that comparisons to 2008 will be almost meaningless. Voters who turned up their noses at Palin and all she represents in 2008 will be hungry for a dramatic break from the bipartisan progressive consensus which gave us both McCain and 0. Hostile ground will turn friendly.

IOW, if there is a wave coming that could sweep 0 out of office, Palin is poised to ride it. If there isn't, we're stuck with 0 anyway.

36 posted on 07/08/2009 8:18:48 AM PDT by fluffdaddy (Is anyone else missing Fred Thompson about now?)
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To: steve-b

With respect, bollocks.

Virginia and NC voted Obama because of the drop in support for Republicans among white males. These people had had it with Republicans, and for good reason; why vote for the Bushtard Party when McSame is all they’re offering?

Offer something new, something concrete, something that people can understand: competence in government and fiscal rectitude, and white voters will come back to the Republicans in droves. Including many Hispanic voters.

Best,

Chris


41 posted on 07/08/2009 8:23:34 AM PDT by section9 (Major Motoko Kusanagi says, "Jesus is Coming. Everybody look busy...")
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