Longean has a lot of baggage and has apparently lost not one, not two, but three prior campaigns (State Senator, Congressman, Governor) in a row. I don't think someone has permanently ruined any chance of future office if they lose one major campaign (see Reagan 1976 primary vs. Reagan 1980 primary), but losing three in a row is getting into Oberweis territory. Some of Longean's supporters apparently don't care about his losing streak, but care that Merkt is polling 2% in the primary and therefore "not viable". That's backwards to me. The rule of thumb is vote with your heart in the primary and vote with your head in the general election. I don't mind getting behind a long shot candidate in the primary if they'd make a good nominee for the general election, but I have a real problem running a candidate against the Dems in a general election that has a really poor track record in past elections.
I think Longean could potentially be another Alan Keyes and do more harm than good for NJ conservatives if he is the nominee. If he does anything stupid, the RINO establishment will blame conservatives as a whole. Keyes was the out-of-state sacrificial lamb against Obama after Obama had been running unopposed for a month and had become a national media celebrity. Even though almost NO Republican could have defeated Obama under those circumstances (barring a major star getting into the race like Mike Dikta or Jim Edgar), Keyes made some big gaffes in the November election and the RINO IL GOP establishment ever since then has used him as an excuse to portray all conservatives as hopelessly out-of-touch, goofy, unelectable fringe candidates. Prior to Keyes, our past three Senator candidates had all been conservatives (yes I count Jim Durkin's primary victory over Oberweis in 2002 as the "more conservative" candidate winning), but since then the party has had an excuse to run only "sensible, pragmatic" RINOs as our nominees (Sauerberg, and now probably Kirk). From what I've heard, Longean will do the same thing and run a general election campaign as a referendum on social issues like abortion. If Corzine crushes him, I think we won't see any more conservative statewide candidates from NJ for a long time and the next Governor's race will consist of 2 or 3 Christie Todd Whitman clones in the primary.
As for Christie... from what I've read, Impy's probably right that he's not as bad a RINO as some freepers make him out to be. Seems he's been endorsed by Bret Schundler and Steve Forbes (yes Forbes was wrong on the Giuliani endorsement though), and they say his tax reform plan is better than Longean's. Bret Schundler is throughly hated by the NJGOP establishment and would have no reason to back an ultra RINO they want. Obviously Schundler feels some of Christie's more conservative positions are made in good faith. Christie is also apparently running as a "pro-life" candidate (that alone puts him miles ahead of Whitman), though in fairness it appears to be a Romney-type flip-flop on his part. In any case, while I'd probably find him acceptable in the general election, I can't trust any candidate the NJGOP establishment has anointed as their choice in the primary. Plus it appears Christie's stance on illegal immigration sucks no matter you cut it. And even if he's not Whitman, the name "Christie" on a NJ ballot always haunts me. ;-)
Rick Merkt is looking good so far, it's a shame he hasn't built up any support and seems to be in Duncan Hunter territory for now. Impressive resume: He's built up a good track record in the New Jersey Legislature, served as Parliamentarian, Vice-chairman of the Republican Policy Committee, member of the Appropriations Committee, and member of the Higher Education Committee. He was previously Deputy Attorney General of NJ. He holds a B.A. from Yale, a law degree from Fordham University, and a Master's degree from the University of Pennsylvania. His website notes "He is among New Jersey ’s first certified public managers and served as Founding President of the state Certified Public Manager Society. Mr. Merkt is vice-president and general counsel of a major power supply design and manufacturing firm with headquarters located in Morris County. Prior to his present position, he was in-house counsel to one of Morris County’s largest retail automotive firms. Assemblyman Merkt is a 32-year resident of Morris County and has been active in numerous community and volunteer organizations, specializing in eldercare concerns. He has received numerous awards for community and legislative service to Morris County."
On the issues, he highlights his support for second amendment rights and has an A+ rating from the NRA. He has a solid record opposing higher taxes and pledges "I will veto any tax hike proposal that passes the Legislature and use the line item veto to reduce state spending". On reducing government he writes "I will review all state regulatory requirements to determine whether they are really necessary, as opposed to hidden tax opportunities for the state. The goal will be to reduce the number of permits, licenses, etc. a business needs to a more reasonable and manageable number." He also promises to drastically reduce the number of state employers (currently 80,000) and slash the state budget by more than one-third of a billion dollars through four actions. He rallies against eminent domain seizures, illegal aliens taking American jobs, and activist judges in New Jersey, and has specific policy proposals on how to stop those things.
I'd like to know where he stands on some social issues like abortion and traditional marriage, though since it's NJ I don't expect the Republican candidates to shout their positions on these issues from the rooftops (though Longean seems eager to do so). In any case, so far, so good.
In the primary, I always go with my conscious and support the candidate who I think will be the best person the GOP could nominate for the job. If that person turns out to be polling an asterisk level of support, so be it. You don't have to deal with the RAT candidate on the ballot until November. This is the time to be principled and support the best conservative, period.
Also, never say never. Don't just assume it will be a two-way race between the guys polling all the support early in the race. Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson were considered the "front runners" for the GOP nomination back in summer 2008 (and McCain was considered a "has-been" from 2000 with no chance in the primary). Remind me how many states each of them ACTUALLY won?
I admit I voted for Oberdouche because he was polling better than Brady. (and also I didn’t realize at the time how big a douce he was) And I voted for a certain RINO for President because I thought he was better than another RINO. I’d take both of those back.
I probably would have went for Rauschenberger but he quit due to to difficulty fundraising and bizarrely became the running mate of wealthy ‘moderate’ (but non-combine?) Rod Gidwitz.
Speaking of which NJ will get it’s first LT Guv, the nominees choose them after the primary.
RINO State Senate Leader Diane “Todd” Allen is an alleged top possibility.
L-o-n-e-g-a-n. It’s not Long-ean.
After Christie’s refusal (as a U.S. Attorney, no less !) to recognize the problem of the illegal invasion and to have the temerity to say illegals are NOT criminals, I wouldn’t vote for him or endorse him under ANY circumstances. That issue is DEEPLY personal to me and has had a very negative effect on my life (and I do not absolve Dubya of that, he could’ve done something about it and chose not to). Any Republican that doesn’t take a common-sense and SANE position on that issue that invaders need to be removed and employers JAILED can go screw themselves.