Mac Notebook purchae projection Ping!
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Posted on 05/03/2009 5:30:28 PM PDT by Swordmaker
But lack of netbooks could stymie Apple's growth, adds analyst
The first uptick in consumer confidence in 17 months is good news for Apple Inc., market research firm ChangeWave said Thursday.
According to Paul Carton, ChangeWave's research director, the company's April survey of 3,200 consumers showed a two-point increase, from 6% to 8%, in the number of people who said they planned to buy a laptop in the next 90 days—the first gain since November 2007.
If it pans out, the increase means Apple can breathe a little easier. "The economy is finally starting to move in Apple's direction," Carton said during a conference call Thursday. "Overall, laptop sales look like they'll be hopping in the future, and that means Apple is well-positioned going forward."
Carton based his optimism on the fact that, of those consumers who said they would buy a laptop in the next three months, 29% planned to buy an Apple laptop. While that number is down a point from February, it's up two points from January.
That would be good news for Apple, which last month said it had sold just 2.2 million Macs—1.4 million of them laptops—to report its first year-to-year decline in computer sales in nearly six years.
But netbooks, the smaller, lighter and cheaper laptops that are quickly gaining market share, are the proverbial fly in Apple's ointment, said Carton. Almost one-fourth of the people who said they planned to buy a laptop added that the machine would be a netbook; the 23% who said last month they planned to buy one in the next 90 days was up from February's 18% and January's 14%, a noteworthy surge.
Apple doesn't have a product in the under-US$500 range that traditionally defines the netbook category -- its cheapest laptop is the $999 last-generation MacBook. And although rumors continue to swirl about Apple rolling out something to compete in the category this year, nothing has been announced.
"There are some contradictory trends here [for Apple]," acknowledged Carton, referring to the upside of a better outlook for laptops in general but the downside of encroaching netbooks. "Sometimes the world is filled with many shades of gray."
Mike Abramsky, a Wall Street analyst with RBC Capital who joined the conference call, was blunter, though like Carton, he was optimistic about Apple. "The market is definitely shifting down in price, so Apple may need to introduce products to target that low end," said Abramsky. "That could show as lower pricing of existing products, or it could be a tablet, but it's not likely that Apple is going to shift away from its existing value proposition." That last phrase is Wall-Street speak for Apple's high prices, and resulting high margins, something rival Microsoft Corp. has used to its advantage in recent television advertising.
"How Apple wrestles with this growing netbook category will be important," Abramsky said. "But the Mac franchise isn't dead at all."
Like other analysts, Abramsky added that although Macs will remain a major revenue stream, he's pinning most of his hopes for Apple's growth on the iPhone and App Store business. "At June's WWDC [Worldwide Developers Conference], we think Apple will introduce a "pro" version of the iPhone, as well as a price cut on the existing iPhone," he said. "The pro won't be as revolutionary as the iPhone 3G last year, but it will continue the advantage that Apple has in the smartphone market."
Contrary to other rumors, Apple won't launch a smaller, cheaper version of the iPhone—some have dubbed it an "iPhone Nano," referencing the small iPod—said Abramsky. "We're not convinced that a nano iPhone will be introduced this year, but we know one's in the pipeline for next year," he said, adding that such a model would be perfect as pre-paid phone or as an inexpensive iPhone to sell in countries like China.
"What [ChangeWave's] data shows is that consumer sentiment is improving, and will allow Apple to sustain support for its value proposition," concluded Abramsky.
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Well...
It is more of a sign of
less of a downtick
The statistics show severe pessimism
just less so
Rasmussen Consumer Index: Daily Readings
3-May 75.4
At 75.4 the overall levels of economic confidence are significantly lower today than they were in the aftermath of the 9-11 terrorist attacks.
With the profits those jerks rake in, you think they could pay a few dividends. But noooooo....
Correct.
Equally, netbook sales are going to continue to skyrocket for years, recession or no recession. Just look at the sharp rises in Acer and Asus tech’s overall laptop sales in the last 12 months, all from netbooks. Asus has already overtaken Apple in overall notebook sales with 8.6% share, compared to Apple's 4.1 market share. http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde/xchg/displaysearch/hs.xsl/Strong_mini_note_shipments_buoy_notebook_PC_Market_Q3_08.asp
Until someone invents a better wheel
cue in legendary Apple inventiveness
And corresponding high prices. I don't see Apple being able to challenge Acer/Asus in the full featured netbooks with 1 Gig RAM, 160 Gig HD, webcam, great keyboard, XP and MS Office trial version all for just $300.
29% planned to buy an Apple laptop. While that number is down a point from February, it's up two points from January... But netbooks, the smaller, lighter and cheaper laptops that are quickly gaining market share, are the proverbial fly in Apple's ointment, said Carton. Almost one-fourth of the people who said they planned to buy a laptop added that the machine would be a netbook; the 23% who said last month they planned to buy one in the next 90 days was up from February's 18% and January's 14%, a noteworthy surge.On the one hand, I like the tiny size of the netbooks; on the other hand, I hate the tiny size of the screen and keyboard. But I'm not in the market for a new computer anyway, so...
They don't have to get to $300.
A netbook that sells for $600-700, about 4x the size of an iPhone and running OS X will produce more profits than all the $300 netbooks in the world. Once you have tried anything Mac, going back to Windows is just plain painful.
Back in the days when I worked, we had to use Windows. The problem is not the speed of the machine, back in those days Windows was faster. The problem is that the slow link in any personal computer is the man-machine interface.
On average, doing anything on Windows required more mouse clicks, and more keyboard inputs. I think something like 1.5 times as many mouse clicks, maybe twice as many, and a lot more keyboard inputs.
I will never forget running into Windows programs that made me input my password twice. They thought they were giving extra security, I though they were giving me a typing test, with double the opportunity to get it wrong.
And still get destroyed by Acer alone in units sold and market share., not to mention Asus, Dell, HP, etc. You got to generate sales to garner more profits.
In the just ended quarter alone, worldwide netbook sales went up seven times to roughly 4.5 million during the first quarter of 2009 compared to the same quarter last year, according to IDC. That alone is more than all Macs Apple manged to sell in the quater. Apple got none of those netbook sales, and that's why Asus has come from nowhere and overtaken Apple in laptop sales in just one year. http://www.macworld.com/article/140377/2009/05/netbook_shipments.html?lsrc=rss_main
“Once you have tried anything Mac, going back to Windows is just plain painful. “
Dream on.
90% of personal computer users have voted with their wallets and bought Windows PC'S instead of Macs. Worldwide, Apple Macs have less than 3% worldwide market share, so it's not like there is a whole lot of humans using Macs is there?
China will soon become the biggest personal computer market on the planet, and proceed to sell a heck of a lot more PC’s per year than the US, yet Apple Mac market share is tiny in that country because of high Mac prices. Netbooks will merely even strengthen the dominance of Windows PC’s.
The rest of your post is irrelevant, when the far bigger majority lower income folks in the US and in developing countries like China, India, Brazil etc can't afford to buy expensive Macs.
the far bigger majority lower income folks in the US and in developing countries like China, India, Brazil etc can't afford to buy expensive Macs.A netbook that sells for $600-700, about 4x the size of an iPhone and running OS X will produce more profits than all the $300 netbooks in the world.
True. But a long time ago it was pointed out that there was inside of India a "France." That is, there were as many people in India who would be rich, or middle class, in France as there were Frenchmen in France who were rich or middle class.The upshot is that as China, India and Brazil gain wealth they will also produce Mac customers along with huge numbers of commodity computer customers, just like here. So you can go ahead and cry (about people buying Oldsmobiles when you think everyone should have a Chevy) while Apple is laughing all the way to the bank.
BTW, when it comes to cell phones I buy cheap, not iPhone.
It will have to sell first, before it can make any profits for Apple. As at right now, Apple is quickly losing market share in the overall laptop market to fast moving upstarts like Acer and Asus.
“That is, there were as many people in India who would be rich, or middle class, in France as there were Frenchmen in France who were rich or middle class”
Not correct. The “study” was debunked. The “middle class” in India is vastly overrated.
However, even if the middle class in India were the same as France, that still leaves another over ONE BILLION Indians, who can't afford any Apple laptop at all, but who can be in the market for $250/$300 netbooks, which run XP just like any other Windows PC, have hard drives, 1 gig RAM, and even webcams.
“The upshot is that as China, India and Brazil gain wealth they will also produce Mac customers “
China has been growing at over 15% GDP growth for over 20 years now, and most Chinese still don't buy Macs today, because Macs are too expensive, but instead buy Windows PC’s. What makes you think the Chinese will suddenly start buying expensive Macs at a time when netbooks sales have rocketed up even in very high income Europe, where netbooks are even more popular than in the US?
I don't think you are understanding the concept of profit vs. the concept of volume.
If Apple makes 10 times a much profit on every computer as Acer or Asus, they only need to sell 1/10 as many to get the same profit. So, if Acer has 30% market share, Apple does just as well at 3% market share.
It is a different business model, based on quality not quantity.
In computers, as in most things, you pretty much get what you pay for. I will gladly pay the "Apple Tax" for the improved quality I get. And, on the few occasions I need to call tech support, I get a real American, speaking native english, who is based in Indiana or somewhere in the US. Not someone in India, who can not seem to understand technical questions, but who does know how to read a script.
Every business I have known that used Windows did it for two reasons. First equipment cost was cheaper, and secondly it guaranteed more IT slots in the company because more support was needed. If that is your business model, fine. It provides lots of employment for IT support staff. And, we all know how much we need jobs right now. I know that the big government contractor I worked for could pass support costs on to the government, and even mark them up and make a profit on it. As a taxpayer, it drove me nuts, but it was legal. In a corporate environment, when you start to add up labor and then load it for overhead, the annual support cost for any computer is higher than the purchase cost.
For instance, I spent about an hour or two a month talking on the phone to our IT department. The government got charged about $500 per hour for my time, so the cost of the Windows computer on my desk was $6000-12,000 per year before we even looked at equipment costs. When I am paying out of my own pocket, I pay more up front, but save a lot on support costs. You are entitled to a different opinion.
But Apple don't have 3% market share of netbooks, and if they bring out a netbook and price it at $600 they won't have 3% share of netbooks. Worldwide, they won't even have 0.5% of netbooks. In countries like China, you are going to sell close to 0% market share if u sell Apple netbooks for as high as $600.
“It is a different business model, based on quality not quantity”
HP latops/desktops have every bit as much quality as Apple macs do.
” will gladly pay the “Apple Tax” for the improved quality I get.”
90% of personal computer buyers worldwide disagree with you tho, when they CHOSE to buy Windows PC's over Apple macs.
” First equipment cost was cheaper, and secondly it guaranteed more IT slots in the company because more support was needed.”
You left out the # 1 reason: Windows runs all their essential, vital applications, without which their businesses will collapse. A computer is just a tool. You use it to achieve an end, run your manufacturing, costumer relations, insurance business whatever. You don;t buy a computer for your business, because it's pretty.
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