What would we do without you? I don’t have time to read all this material before work in the morning. (Busy just trying to keep up with the steeplechase season in MD/VA!) Thank you, from another Marylander.
Do you know if any of these horses were raised in the Bluegrass area (near Lexington, KY)?
bttt
bttt
Rain Forecast for Oaks, Derby
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/50529/rain-forecast-for-oaks-derby
Might have to use FF to win after all.
I am pleased to see such high MLs on the non-favorites
I’m sure lots will change as race time approaches and the REAL wagering happens: people will be looking for the one or two longshots who have a chance. Especially like the odds of Gen Quarters, West Side Bernie, Papa Clem, and thank you gate2wire, Summer Bird. There is both a LOT of speed AND an unusual quota of closers in this Derby, it’ll be interesting to see how many horses get “sent”, how many will “stay sent”, and how many will dice for tracking position as the race develops. None of these have gone this distance before, remember, so maybe a key consideration would be a horse who raced “evenly” and relatively up close against a hot pace in a mile and an eight race.THAT is a horse who could get out to an easier lead in the longer distance and run away with it. I saw a horse go off at 41-1 on Belmont Stakes day in the Victory Gallop year, in an earlier race. It was also the Belmont distance , this horse had never run it before , but this one race he won wire to wire. A pity I only had $10 on him,but I made $400 anyway. Jock was Shaun Bridgmohan.
Wish I could remember the horse’s name. This concept is also why BET TWICE won the Belmont years ago, wire to wire.
More:
WSJ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124105949788771915.html#mod=todays_us_personal_journal
APRIL 30, 2009
Churchill Downs Workouts Can Reveal a Winner
Handicapping the Kentucky Derby requires an angle. One must look at the mountain, and decide where to drill the mine. The horses in Saturday’s 135th Derby are the best 3-year-old males making left turns on dirt. But they’ve proven this in different races, at different tracks, on different surfaces, against different fields. Commonality is the key to good handicapping, and at the Derby, it’s scarce.
Warming Up for the Roses
Here’s how the last five Kentucky Derby winners fared in their final pre-race workouts. Rank shows how the horse’s time compared to every other horse that ran that distance that day.
HORSE/YEAR DISTANCE (furlongs) TIME RANK
Big Brown (2008) 3 35.4 1/19
Street Sense (2007) 5 1:01 5/22
Barbaro (2006) 4 :46 1/41
Giacomo (2005) 6 1:11.8 *1/16
Smarty Jones (2004) 5 :58 1/34
*At Hollywood Park
But what have they all — or at least, most of them — done? They’ve had a workout at Churchill Downs.
The startling statistic is this: In the final workouts of the last five Derby winners, four of them ran the fastest time of all the horses working at that distance that day (known as a bullet). Three of the four did their final workout at Churchill — the lone exception was Giacomo’s workout at Hollywood Park.
So what does this tell us about this year’s field? In the last workouts of the horses in this year’s group, six have run bullets so far. Atomic Rain worked a bullet, but did it running elsewhere. Papa Clem got one but did it slowly. Friesan Fire worked a blazing bullet for trainer Larry Jones, in the fastest Derby workout since Mr. Jones worked Hard Spun in 2007. Look for the Fire at the front of the pack, and base your bet on whether or not you think he can hold the lead. That leaves Regal Ransom, Dunkirk and I Want Revenge. Any of the three is a good wager. The Count’s call: Regal Ransom is going to get loose out front with Friesan Fire and won’t stick. Dunkirk needs another race before he’s a solid bet. So that leaves I Want Revenge. Did you see him in the Wood Memorial? There’s your horse.
Max WatmanPrinted in The Wall Street Journal, page D8
*** Free (individual) Past Performances for ALL KD starters:
"Brisnet's weekly updated PDF past performance file of Kentucky Derby hopefuls"
(includes video for many prior races):
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/contender-pps
For more info at the site (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/), hover your mouse pointer/cursor over "Racing Information" and select from the drop-down menu.
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Countdown to the Crown (ESPN):
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/index
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National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA):
(Free official Past Performances for many of the big stake races)
http://www.ntra.com/
Well, let me see here...
The favorite scratches on the day of the race, and then a 50-1 horse wins the race.
Somewhere, the odds makers heads are exploding at a awesome rate.
Just a guess.