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WSJ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124105949788771915.html#mod=todays_us_personal_journal
APRIL 30, 2009
Churchill Downs Workouts Can Reveal a Winner
Handicapping the Kentucky Derby requires an angle. One must look at the mountain, and decide where to drill the mine. The horses in Saturday’s 135th Derby are the best 3-year-old males making left turns on dirt. But they’ve proven this in different races, at different tracks, on different surfaces, against different fields. Commonality is the key to good handicapping, and at the Derby, it’s scarce.
Warming Up for the Roses
Here’s how the last five Kentucky Derby winners fared in their final pre-race workouts. Rank shows how the horse’s time compared to every other horse that ran that distance that day.
HORSE/YEAR DISTANCE (furlongs) TIME RANK
Big Brown (2008) 3 35.4 1/19
Street Sense (2007) 5 1:01 5/22
Barbaro (2006) 4 :46 1/41
Giacomo (2005) 6 1:11.8 *1/16
Smarty Jones (2004) 5 :58 1/34
*At Hollywood Park
But what have they all — or at least, most of them — done? They’ve had a workout at Churchill Downs.
The startling statistic is this: In the final workouts of the last five Derby winners, four of them ran the fastest time of all the horses working at that distance that day (known as a bullet). Three of the four did their final workout at Churchill — the lone exception was Giacomo’s workout at Hollywood Park.
So what does this tell us about this year’s field? In the last workouts of the horses in this year’s group, six have run bullets so far. Atomic Rain worked a bullet, but did it running elsewhere. Papa Clem got one but did it slowly. Friesan Fire worked a blazing bullet for trainer Larry Jones, in the fastest Derby workout since Mr. Jones worked Hard Spun in 2007. Look for the Fire at the front of the pack, and base your bet on whether or not you think he can hold the lead. That leaves Regal Ransom, Dunkirk and I Want Revenge. Any of the three is a good wager. The Count’s call: Regal Ransom is going to get loose out front with Friesan Fire and won’t stick. Dunkirk needs another race before he’s a solid bet. So that leaves I Want Revenge. Did you see him in the Wood Memorial? There’s your horse.
Max WatmanPrinted in The Wall Street Journal, page D8
It’s no secret that I love Revenge. I see a fast pace with Ransom, Join in the Dance and Atomic Rain. (I briefly flirted with a thought that Ransom could steal but that thought didn’t last long.)
I hate Friesan Fire but he’ll get a great trip and first run. I’m forced to upgrade his chances if it’s wet.
Dunkirk hasn’t run enough. Won’t win. Will probably get in supers or tri (see Curlin.)
I Want Revenge’s preparation is classic. Great two year old foundation with a Grade I placing. Grade I win this year with two triple digit Beyers. He should move forward.
He’s my solid choice.