Posted on 04/30/2009 4:26:51 AM PDT by gate2wire
Rain Forecast for Oaks, Derby
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/50529/rain-forecast-for-oaks-derby
Might have to use FF to win after all.
Thanks.
No problem.
I am pleased to see such high MLs on the non-favorites
I’m sure lots will change as race time approaches and the REAL wagering happens: people will be looking for the one or two longshots who have a chance. Especially like the odds of Gen Quarters, West Side Bernie, Papa Clem, and thank you gate2wire, Summer Bird. There is both a LOT of speed AND an unusual quota of closers in this Derby, it’ll be interesting to see how many horses get “sent”, how many will “stay sent”, and how many will dice for tracking position as the race develops. None of these have gone this distance before, remember, so maybe a key consideration would be a horse who raced “evenly” and relatively up close against a hot pace in a mile and an eight race.THAT is a horse who could get out to an easier lead in the longer distance and run away with it. I saw a horse go off at 41-1 on Belmont Stakes day in the Victory Gallop year, in an earlier race. It was also the Belmont distance , this horse had never run it before , but this one race he won wire to wire. A pity I only had $10 on him,but I made $400 anyway. Jock was Shaun Bridgmohan.
Wish I could remember the horse’s name. This concept is also why BET TWICE won the Belmont years ago, wire to wire.
More:
WSJ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124105949788771915.html#mod=todays_us_personal_journal
APRIL 30, 2009
Churchill Downs Workouts Can Reveal a Winner
Handicapping the Kentucky Derby requires an angle. One must look at the mountain, and decide where to drill the mine. The horses in Saturday’s 135th Derby are the best 3-year-old males making left turns on dirt. But they’ve proven this in different races, at different tracks, on different surfaces, against different fields. Commonality is the key to good handicapping, and at the Derby, it’s scarce.
Warming Up for the Roses
Here’s how the last five Kentucky Derby winners fared in their final pre-race workouts. Rank shows how the horse’s time compared to every other horse that ran that distance that day.
HORSE/YEAR DISTANCE (furlongs) TIME RANK
Big Brown (2008) 3 35.4 1/19
Street Sense (2007) 5 1:01 5/22
Barbaro (2006) 4 :46 1/41
Giacomo (2005) 6 1:11.8 *1/16
Smarty Jones (2004) 5 :58 1/34
*At Hollywood Park
But what have they all — or at least, most of them — done? They’ve had a workout at Churchill Downs.
The startling statistic is this: In the final workouts of the last five Derby winners, four of them ran the fastest time of all the horses working at that distance that day (known as a bullet). Three of the four did their final workout at Churchill — the lone exception was Giacomo’s workout at Hollywood Park.
So what does this tell us about this year’s field? In the last workouts of the horses in this year’s group, six have run bullets so far. Atomic Rain worked a bullet, but did it running elsewhere. Papa Clem got one but did it slowly. Friesan Fire worked a blazing bullet for trainer Larry Jones, in the fastest Derby workout since Mr. Jones worked Hard Spun in 2007. Look for the Fire at the front of the pack, and base your bet on whether or not you think he can hold the lead. That leaves Regal Ransom, Dunkirk and I Want Revenge. Any of the three is a good wager. The Count’s call: Regal Ransom is going to get loose out front with Friesan Fire and won’t stick. Dunkirk needs another race before he’s a solid bet. So that leaves I Want Revenge. Did you see him in the Wood Memorial? There’s your horse.
Max WatmanPrinted in The Wall Street Journal, page D8
It’s no secret that I love Revenge. I see a fast pace with Ransom, Join in the Dance and Atomic Rain. (I briefly flirted with a thought that Ransom could steal but that thought didn’t last long.)
I hate Friesan Fire but he’ll get a great trip and first run. I’m forced to upgrade his chances if it’s wet.
Dunkirk hasn’t run enough. Won’t win. Will probably get in supers or tri (see Curlin.)
I Want Revenge’s preparation is classic. Great two year old foundation with a Grade I placing. Grade I win this year with two triple digit Beyers. He should move forward.
He’s my solid choice.
I will definitely use Bernie and Summer Bird in a big way. GQ and Clem, not so much. Hold Me Back should be running late to fill those tri’s. Lots of great opportunities here for a price.
GATE??
I thought you were on Pioneer of the Nile??
Have you come round now to IWR?? :-)
For what it’s worth.... although rain is now predicted on Derby Day, I believe it will mostly be early in the day... and, not likely to hurt the track condition much... This track dries REALLY quickly.
I’m trying to narrow my field to two on top... and, I think that is now IWR and FF. I’ll likely add POTN in the second spot... Then, a mix of horses for tris and supers...
*** Free (individual) Past Performances for ALL KD starters:
"Brisnet's weekly updated PDF past performance file of Kentucky Derby hopefuls"
(includes video for many prior races):
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/contender-pps
For more info at the site (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/), hover your mouse pointer/cursor over "Racing Information" and select from the drop-down menu.
_______________________________
Countdown to the Crown (ESPN):
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/index
_______________________________
National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA):
(Free official Past Performances for many of the big stake races)
http://www.ntra.com/
I think if you go look at past posts you’ll see I’ve always liked Revenge. Revenge and Pioneer will still be my big exacta plays and my keys in everything.
I will hold my nose and use FF if it’s wet.
“I’m pretty sure I’ll be using Pioneerof the Nile or I Want Revenge as my top pick. I notice they’re both dual qualifiers (which I still pay attention to.)”
Here’s a quote I made to you two weks ago. :-)
LOL.. Ok.. glad to have you on my team.
I’m betting two horse on top of my Tri wheels... IWR and FF.
I talke with a friend who went the backside on Sunday and watched several horses and spoke with Larry Jones... Jones said he was most afraid of Dunkirk.
My freind was impressed at how BIG Friesan Fire his... really, a large horse. Also, at how calm he was.. amongst all the buzz of the press. He’s sold me... I’m going to bet against a couple of really strong qualifying trends...
Oaks tomorrow... some really good undercard races.. I like Battle of Hastings on the turf...
I like Dr. Pleasure in the 9th...
Diamond Dags in the 8th... if the price is great. :-)
Good luck all!
PS> Guess I’m sticking with Rachel in the Oaks. I don’t know how a horse could look better prepared...
Longshot I’m looking to play..
Laragh in the 8th.
Dr. Pleasure/ Mambo in Seattle in 9th.
Bunker Hill/ Skip a date/ Bruce in Autumn in 10th.
Hard to go against Rachel, but I’ll say Gabby softens her up just enough for Justwhistledixie.
Good Luck.
hah..I didn’y check this morning.. will tomorrow for sure.
I had Laragh... I was also betting Dr. Pleasure and Mambo (great minds lose alike).
I bet an exacta box on Hastings and The #1... Stormalory?? the one that pulled up lame... rough day when your horses don’t even finish.
I Paid $60 for a 6/ALL ticket in the Oaks that paid back pretty well... and, I have a $4 Oak/Derby double ticket with Rachel over IWF, FF, POTN, and Dunkirk... not sure if that will pay back or not! LOL
Sure hope tomorrow is better... I had THREE 2nd/3rd finishers today... man, I hate that.
Good luck tomorrow, gate2wire!
Highest “mud” marks are , General Quarters (coincidentally,
my choice.)
Friesan Fire
Dunkirk
in that order.
Have a hunch Dunkirk’s odds will increase, while the only horse’s getting shorter will be I Want Revenge.
Something about the name will add perverse appeal to thousands of bettors and he’ll go down to 9-5
Why is Desert Party overlooked?
And my other co choice, West Side Bernie?
If I didn’t “Know better”, I’d almost think IWR will be compromised by Post #13.
He may want to clear the field, but there will be an AWFUL
lot of early speed inside him.
OTOH, Talamo is a prodigious jock with natural gifts.
I just don’t think IWR will win/
On class alone Pioneerof the Nile looks like a good one, with winning ways.
It’s going to be an interesting Derby, but I’m going with some oddball horses, that I’ve already detailed in previous replies here. GOOD LUCK TO ALL>
Thank you. Same to you.
Well, I lost my ass yesterday. Except for the nice price on Laragh, it was a disaster. Oh well. Lots of races today.
Revenge and Pioneer it is.
I will definitely have Desert party in there. Respect him.
Good luck.
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